Population and the environment - Global population futures Flashcards
what is the ozone layer and how is it depleting
recent phenomenon
cause by halogenated chemicals e.g. chlorofluorocarbons used in fridges, insulations and spray can propellants
Chemicals react with and destroy the ozone molecule in the extreme cold of the polar stratosphere
Destruction of ozone occurs mainly in late winter/early spring
Stratospheric ozone layer utilises and filters out incoming solar radiation
If ozone becomes depleted more UV rays will reach earth which cause serious impacts on human, flora and fauna
Extended exposure to UV rays has harmful impacts on human health - increases prevalence of skin cancers, cataract formation, increase in other eyes diseases and an increase in infectious diseases due to excessive UV radiation weakening the human immune system
what are the risks of skin cancer
skin cancers are caused by exposure to sun
long term exposure or short periods of intense sun exposure and burning
UV light in sunlight damages the DNA in skin cells
Malignant melanoma incidence rates have increased more than fivefold since mid 1970s
Melanomas more likely to affect older people and those from more affluent areas
Office for National Statistics - rates of newly diagnosed malignant melanoma skin cancer highest in South West and South East England
Australia has highest rate of skin cancer in world
Combination of the predominantly light skinned population, tropical latitudes with high levels of UV radiation and cultural emphasis on outdoor activities contributed
Two out of three australians have skin cancer by the age of 70
Around 2,000 australians die from skin cancer each year
Skin cancers account for about 80% of all new cancer diagnosed each year in australia each year australians are 4x more likely to develop a common skin cancer than any other form of cancer
calculated that skin cancer costs health system AU$512.3 million in 2010 (diagnoses, treatment and pathology)
What are the risks of cataracts
eye damage causes a loss of transparency in the lens of the eye leading to cloudiness of vision, can eventually result in blindness
Different types
number of factors can lead to formation including being a natural part ageing process, a result of diabetes, Smoke from burning fuel wood and cigarettes, poor nutrition, Exposure to UV radiation damage different parts of the eye including the lense and research shows it appears to be a major risk factor for cataract development
leading causes of blindness in the world
Proteins in eye unravel, tangle and accumulate pigments that cloud the lens and eventually lead to blindness
Increased ozone depletion means anyone who spends a lot of their time outdoors is at risk of eye problems from UV radiation but extent of risk depends on a number of factors -
Geographic location - UV levels greater in tropical areas near equator
Altitude - UV levels greater at high altitude
Time of day - UV levels greater in wide open spaces, especially when highly reflective surfaces are present like snow and sand, exposure is less likely in urban settings where tall buildings shade by the streets
UV levels not significantly affected by cloud cover and risk of UV exposure can be quite high even on hazy or overcast days
because UV is invisible radiation not visible
Wearing good quality sunglasses block harmful UV radiation and close fitting wrap around styles are better as they prevent sunlight entering the peripheries of the glasses
Only effective treatment of cataracts is surgery to remove the cloudy lens and replace it with clear plastic intraocular lens implant
Cataracts severely diminishes the eyesight of millions of people in both the developing and developed world
those living in rural areas in developing countries are disproportionately affected by UV induced cataracts and they are less able to afford prevention or treatment for the problem
Sustained 10% depletion of the ozone layer is expected to result in nearly 2 million new cases of cataracts globally
What are the health impacts of climate change
climate change has three kinds health impacts
Relatively direct impacts - caused by increases in the frequency or severity of extreme weather events such as
Storms - increase the risk of dangerous flooding, high winds and other threats
Warmer average temperature - hotter days and more frequent and longer heatwaves
Consequences of environmental change and ecological disruption that occur
Increased concentrations of unhealthy air and water pollutants
Changes in temp and precipitation patterns could exacerbate the spread of some vector borne diseases
Consequences associated with demoralised populations in the wake of climate induced economic dislocation, environmental decline and conflict situations
Greater frequency of infectious disease epidemics following floods and storms
Substantial traumatic, nutritional or psychological health effects following population displacement from sea level rise or increased storm activity
May bring some localised benefits
Fewer winter deaths in temperate climates
Increased food production in certain areas
WHO suggests health effects of changing climate are negative
Between 2030 and 2050 WHO estimate 250,000 additional deaths per year from malnutrition, malaria, diarrhoea and heat stress
Certain groups particularly vulnerable for certain impacts
Vulnerability depends on factors
Population density
Level of economic development
Food availability
Income level and distribution
Local environmental conditions
Pre existing health status
Quality and availability of public healthcare
E.g. elderly and poor most at risk of thermal extremes
What are the health impacts of thermal stress
Change in mortality
Research by intergovernmental panel on climate change
climate change cause increased heat related mortality and morbidity
decreased clot related mortality in temperate countries
Change in temp at both extremes affects both cardiovascular and respiratory mortality
what are the health impacts of heatwaves
Main risks
Dehydration
Overheating
Heat exhaustion
Heat stroke
Groups particularly at risk when weather is very hot
Very young
Elderly
Seriously ill
Northern and western europe experiencing more frequent heatwaves
August 2003 France and Spain unprecedented high temps lasted for 3 weeks
15,00 excess deaths
Who reported 70,000 excess deaths across whole europe during same period
900 excess deaths were caused by summer heatwaves in UK in 2019
320 in 6 day heatwave in late august
Elderly disproportionately affected
Heatwaves lead directly or indirectly to other health risks
Photochemical smogs caused by UV light reacting with nitrogen dioxide in the atmosphere to form ground level ozone, nitric acids and other pollutants these can cause eye irritation and respiratory problems
The growth of blue-green algae in water courses - can cause problems for aquatic life including fish as well as toxic algal blooms causing problems for public health recreational water activities
Health and environmental problems including odour, dust and vermin infestation measures may be necessary to mitigate infestation including more frequent waste collections and extra pollution controls at landfills and other waste treatment facilities
Wildfires
Water shortages
Heatwaves much bigger health impacts in cities that in surrounding suburban and rural areas
Impact in mortality from heat stress more significant in developing countries (mexico city, New Delhi) where populations especially vulnerable as they lack the resources to deal with heatwaves
What are the health impacts of cold spells
Many temperate countries clear seasonal variation in mortality
Death rates in winter 25% higher than summer
Extremes of cold impact severely on those suffering with both cardiovascular and respiratory diseases and lead to an increase in mortality
Over 34% of excess winter deaths in UK caused by respiratory diseases in 2017-18
Annual outbreaks of winter diseases such as influenza which have large influence in winter mortality are not strongly associated with colder temperatures
Climate change likely to bring milder winters in temperate regions
Research indicates most cities global climate change likely to lead to reduction in mortality rates due to decreasing winter mortality
Effect most pronounced for cardiovascular mortality in elderly people in cities which experience temperature or cold climate
conflicting evidence to whether the decreases in winter mortality are greater or less than increase in summer deaths due to heatwaves
Severe cold thought to have larger impact on morality than extreme heat
other factors affecting winter mortality suggest that negative impacts of more frequent heat waves outweigh benefits of fewer colder days
Net impact in mortality is likely to vary between populations
What are the health impacts of Emergence and changing distribution of vector borne diseases
Important determinants of vector borne disease transmission
Vector survival and reproduction
Vectors biting rate
Pathogens incubation rate within the vector organism
Vectors pathogens and host each survive and reproduce within a range of optimal climatic conditions
Temperature and precipitation most important
Altitude wind and daylight duration also important
Changes in temp and rainfall regimes resulting from global climate change will alter geographic distribution of optimal conditions for most vectors
Ranges of vector borne diseases are expanding
Spurred by anthropogenic factors
By 2100 estimated that average global temp risen by 1.5-5.0
Increases likelihood of many vector borne diseases in new ares
Greatest effect of transmissions likely in extremes of range of temps at which transmission occurs
Diseases lie in 14-18 degrees celsius and the lower end at 35-40 degrees at upper end
what are the health impacts of malaria and dengue
Most important vector borne diseases in tropics and subtropics
Populations living at the present margins of malaria and dengue without affecting primary health care will be the most susceptible if these diseases expand their geographic range in a warmer world
Adede mosquito vector of dengue is sensitive to climatic conditions and studies suggest that climate change could expose an additional one billion people to transmissions by the end of the century
Malaria likely to spread by 2050 based on hadley center climate chane models high scenario
Areas where climate will be conducive to malaria in 2050
North east coast of America
Turkey
East china
Other areas may become free of malaria as climate changes
Climatic anomalies associated with the EL Nino Southern Oscillation phenomenon resulting in drought and floods are also expected to increase in frequency and intensity and have been linked to outbreaks of malaria in Africa asia and south america
what are the health impacts of lyme disease
Most common vector borne disease in temperate climates of the northern hemisphere including the USA and Europe
Borrelia bacteria is transmitted to humans by the bite if infected deer ticks
An emerging vector borne disease thought to be associated with warmer and more humid conditions
what are the health impacts of west nile virus
Emergent disease transmitted by Culex species of mosquito which can have different climatic tolerance range and can survive in more temperate regions
Human infections attributable to WNV have been reported in many countries in the world for over 50 years
Since 1997 it has spread widely and in 1999 the virus reached New York resulting in a large and dramatic outbreak that spread throughout the USA in the following years
Since its introduction in the USA the virus has spread and is now widely established from canada to venezuela
The WNV outbreak in the USA (1990-2010) highlighted the fact that establishment of vector borne pathogens outside their current habitat present a serious danger to the world
What are the health impacts of zika virus
Infection caused by bite of infectes aedes mosquito
Causes
Rash
Mild fever
Conjunctivitis
Muscle pain
Virus isolated in 1947 in the zika forest in uganda
Remained mainly in africa with sporratic outbreaks in asia until 2014
Chile notified WHO of virus on easter island
2015 spread into south and central america and the caribbean
Preaking in americas in 2016 it has since declined there
2019 WHO reported 87 countries with evidence of mosquito bourne transmissions
Countries located in africa the americas, south east asia and the wester pacific
What are the direct health impacts of agriculture productivity
Direct impacts
Higher growing season temperatures will significantly affect agricultural yield, farm income and food security
Will be gains and losses depending on the location of the gowing season
Gains
In mid and high altitudes the crop yield are projected to increase and extend northwards especially for cereals and cool season seed crops such as oil
Crops grown in lower altitudes such as maize sunflower and soya beans could become available further north and at higher altitudes yields could increase by as much as 30% by 2050
Potentially large gains for regions such as russia due to longer planting seasons and more favourable growing conditions amounting to 64% increase over 245 million hectares by the 2080, concerns that gains will be tempered by increase in drought conditions rendering extensive irrigation programmes necessary to benefit from the warmer temperatures
Without adaptations by farmers climate change may not necessarily benefit productivity
Increase in the mean growing season temperature will bring forward harvest time of current varieties and possibly reduce final yield without adaptation to a longer growing season
Losses in productivity
Areas where temps are already close to psychological limits for crops e.g. seasonally arid regions, higher temps will be detrimental, increasing heat stress on crops and water loss by evaporation. Significant modifications to crops strains and/or farming methods may be necessary if agricultural production is to be feasible in such conditions
Varying rainfall patterns will have significant impact on productivity, impact of climate change on regional precipitation is difficult to forecast but there is confidence in projections of a general increase in high altitude rainfall, especially in winter and overall decrease in parts of tropics and subtropics
Indirect impacts
Climate change also impact indirectly and adversely on crops through effects such as
Pests and diseases
Pests such as aphids respond positively to higher levels of co2
Increased temps also reduce their overwintering mortality enabling earlier and more widespread dispersion
Changes in water availability owing to distant climate changes
Water for irrigation often extracted from rivers which depend on distant climatic conditions
Agriculture along the nile in egypt depends on rainfall in the upper reaches of the river in the ethiopian highlands or rwanda mountians
Sea level rise
Vulnerability of crop productivity is greatest where a large sea level rise occurs in conjunction with low lying coastal agriculture
May result in saltwater incursions into aquifers used for irrigation and soils salinisation during fertile farmland near to river deltas
what are the indirect health impacts on agriculture productivity
Indirect impacts
Climate change also impact indirectly and adversely on crops through effects such as
Pests and diseases
Pests such as aphids respond positively to higher levels of co2
Increased temps also reduce their overwintering mortality enabling earlier and more widespread dispersion
Changes in water availability owing to distant climate changes
Water for irrigation often extracted from rivers which depend on distant climatic conditions
Agriculture along the nile in egypt depends on rainfall in the upper reaches of the river in the ethiopian highlands or rwanda mountians
Sea level rise
Vulnerability of crop productivity is greatest where a large sea level rise occurs in conjunction with low lying coastal agriculture
May result in saltwater incursions into aquifers used for irrigation and soils salinisation during fertile farmland near to river deltas
what affects do climate change have on nutritional standards
Impact if climate change on global food production will have uncertain and varying consequences for human health and nutrition
Can be viewed from different perspectives depending on levels of development
what affects does change in agriculture have on developed regions
Increased food prices may lower nutritional quality of dietary intakes, exacerbate obesity and amplify health inequalities
Changes in agricultural production resulting from new crop and livestock species may lead to use of different pesticides and veterinary medicines and in turn affect transfer mechanisms through which contaminants move for environment into food
Have implication for food safety and nutritional content of food
Complementary promotion of healthier diets and climate change mitigation may increase consumption of foods whose production reduces greenhouse gas emissions
Reducing red meat consumption has positive health effects - reducing levels of saturated fat in the diet and lowering risk of cancers in digestive system
additional benefits of freeing more arable land to grow crops for human consumption
Developed countries may be able to adapt food safety consequences of climate change although ability to respond to nutrition challenge is less certain
What affect does change in agriculture have on developing regions
Regions experiencing Rapid economic growth often go through nutritional transition where increased affluence guides the population to a more westernised diet
China seen significant shift from primarily cereal consumption to more mean consumption
Have mixed nutritional results for populations and though it has not come as a result of climate change it will exacerbate the effects through positive feedback
Increased livestock production will increase methane emissions require more land usage for fodder production and so more clearance of forests
What affects does change in agriculture have on least developed regions
Regions most vulnerable to loss of production due to climate change
Study by UNICEF found clear and alarming links between climate change and the nutritional status and migration patterns of populations
Predictability of rainfall is critical for rain fed agriculture and climate change has given an unpredictable combination of extended periods of rainfall (leading to floods) and droughts both of which have resulted in crop failure
When crops fail farmers may sell livestock as an economic default which can lead to iron and zinc deficiencies in the diet
Climate induced crop failure in an over reliance on fewer crops which are less likely to fail
Exclusive diets of particular crops lead to specific forms of malnutrition
what is positive feedback
enhances or amplifies change, move system away from equilibrium and make system more unstable, creates snowball effect
what is negative feedback
opposing force, counters any change, holding system in a more equilibrium state
what is the population, resources and pollution model (PRP)
relationship between population resources and pollution and positive and negative feedback loops that are created from these relationships
population needs to acquire and use resources in order to grow - usage creates pollution in turn affects the population
population dependent on the environment and its resources
how does the PRP model link with the malthusian idea of population growth
using resources = increase of people
world reaches carrying capacity
world cannot support population
-‘ve feedback = population declines
leads to environmental degradation and pollution (+’ve feedback)
decrease in population gets us back to equilibrium
what are the health impacts of change in climatic conditions
three kinds of health impacts
Relatively direct impacts - caused by increases in the frequency or severity of extreme weather events such as
Storms - increase the risk of dangerous flooding, high winds and other threats
Warmer average temperature - hotter days and more frequent and longer heatwaves
Consequences of environmental change and ecological disruption that occur
Increased concentrations of unhealthy air and water pollutants
Changes in temp and precipitation patterns could exacerbate the spread of some vector borne diseases
Consequences associated with demoralised populations in the wake of climate induced economic dislocation, environmental decline and conflict situations
Greater frequency of infectious disease epidemics following floods and storms
Substantial traumatic, nutritional or psychological health effects following population displacement from sea level rise or increased storm activity
May bring some localised benefits
Fewer winter deaths in temperate climates
Increased food production in certain areas
WHO suggests that health effects of a changing climate are negative
Between 2030 and 2050 WHO estimate 250,000 additional deaths per year from malnutrition, malaria, diarrhoea and heat stress
Certain groups will be particularly vulnerable for certain impacts
Vulnerability depends on factors
Population density
Level of economic development
Food availability
Income level and distribution
Local environmental conditions
Pre existing health status
Quality and availability of public healthcare
E.g. elderly and poor most at risk of thermal extremes
what are the health impacts of thermal stress
Change in mortality related to thermal stress
Research by intergovernmental panel on climate change
climate change cause increased heat related mortality and morbidity
decreased clod related mortality in temperate countries
Change in temp at both extremes affects both cardiovascular and respiratory mortality
what are the health impacts of heatwaves
Main risks - Dehydration, Overheating, Heat exhaustion, Heat stroke
Groups particularly at risk of health problems when the weather is very hot - Very young, Elderly, Seriously ill
Northern and western europe experiencing more frequent heatwaves
August 2003 France and Spain unprecedented high temps lasted for 3 weeks- Resulted in 15,00 excess deaths, Who reported 70,000 excess deaths across whole europe during same period
900 excess deaths were caused by summer heatwaves in UK in 2019 - 320 in 6 day heatwave in late august, Elderly disproportionately affected
Heatwaves lead directly or indirectly to other health risks - Photochemical smogs caused by UV light reacting with nitrogen dioxide in the atmosphere to form ground level ozone, nitric acids and other pollutants these can cause eye irritation and respiratory problems, The growth of blue-green algae in water courses - can cause problems for aquatic life including fish as well as toxic algal blooms causing problems for public health recreational water activities, Health and environmental problems including odour, dust and vermin infestation measures may be necessary to mitigate infestation including more frequent waste collections and extra pollution controls at landfills and other waste treatment facilities, Wildfires, Water shortages
Heatwaves much bigger health impacts in cities that in surrounding suburban and rural areas
Impact in mortality from heat stress more significant in developing countries (mexico city, New Delhi) where populations especially vulnerable as they lack the resources to deal with heatwaves
what are the health impacts of cold spells
Many temperate countries clear seasonal variation in mortality- Death rates in winter 25% higher than in summer
Extremes of cold impact severely on those suffering with both cardiovascular and respiratory diseases and lead to an increase in mortality
Over 34% of excess winter deaths in UK caused by respiratory diseases in 2017-18
Annual outbreaks of winter diseases such as influenza which have large influence in winter mortality are not strongly associated with colder temperatures
Climate change likely to bring milder winters in temperate regions
Research indicates that most cities global climate change likely to lead to reduction in mortality rates due to decreasing winter mortality
Effect most pronounced for cardiovascular mortality in elderly people in cities which experience temperature or cold climate
conflicting evidence to whether the decreases in winter mortality are greater or less than increase in summer deaths due to heatwaves
Severe cold thought to have larger impact on morality than extreme heat
other factors affecting winter mortality suggest that negative impacts of more frequent heat waves outweigh benefits of fewer colder days
Net impact in mortality is likely to vary between populations
how have vector borne diseases emerged and changed distribution
Important determinants of vector borne disease transmission- Vector survival and reproduction, Vectors biting rate, Pathogens incubation rate within the vector organism
Vectors pathogens and host each survive and reproduce within a range of optimal climatic conditions - Temperature and precipitation most important, Altitude wind and daylight duration also important, Changes in temp and rainfall regimes resulting from global climate change will alter geographic distribution of optimal conditions for most vectors
Ranges of vector borne diseases are expanding - Spurred by anthropogenic factors, By 2100 estimated that average global temp risen by 1.5-5.0 (Increases likelihood of many vector borne diseases in new ares), Greatest effect of transmissions likely in extremes of range of temps at which transmission occurs, Diseases lie in 14-18 degrees celsius and the lower end at 35-40 degrees at upper end
what are the health impacts of malaria and dengue
Most important vector borne diseases in tropics and subtropics
Populations living at the present margins of malaria and dengue without affecting primary health care will be the most susceptible if these diseases expand their geographic range in a warmer world
Adede mosquito vector of dengue is sensitive to climatic conditions and studies suggest that climate change could expose an additional one billion people to transmissions by the end of the century
Malaria likely to spread by 2050 based on hadley center climate change models high scenario
Areas where climate will be conducive to malaria in 2050 - North east coast of America, Turkey, East china
Other areas may become free of malaria as climate changes
Climatic anomalies associated with the EL Nino Southern Oscillation phenomenon resulting in drought and floods are also expected to increase in frequency and intensity and have been linked to outbreaks of malaria in Africa asia and south america
what are the health impacts of lyme disease
Most common vector borne disease in temperate climates of the northern hemisphere including the USA and Europe
Borrelia bacteria is transmitted to humans by the bite if infected deer ticks
An emerging vector borne disease thought to be associated with warmer and more humid conditions
what are the health impacts of the west nile virus
Emergent disease transmitted by Culex species of mosquito which can have different climatic tolerance range and can survive in more temperate regions
Human infections attributable to WNV have been reported in many countries in the world for over 50 years
Since 1997 it has spread widely and in 1999 the virus reached New York resulting in a large and dramatic outbreak that spread throughout the USA in the following years
Since its introduction in the USA the virus has spread and is now widely established from canada to venezuela
The WNV outbreak in the USA (1990-2010) highlighted the fact that establishment of vector borne pathogens outside their current habitat present a serious danger to the world
what are the health impacts of the zika virus
Infection caused by bite of infectes aedes mosquito
Causes - Rash, Mild fever, Conjunctivitis, Muscle pain
Virus isolated in 1947 in the zika forest in uganda
Remained mainly in africa with sporratic outbreaks in asia until 2014
Chile notified WHO of virus on easter island
2015 spread into south and central america and the caribbean
Preaking in americas in 2016 it has since declined there
2019 WHO reported 87 countries with evidence of mosquito bourne transmissions
Countries located in africa the americas, south east asia and the wester pacific
what are the direct impacts to the change of agriculture activity due to climate change
Higher growing season temperatures will significantly affect agricultural yield, farm income and food security
Will be gains and losses depending on the location of the gowing season
Gains - In mid and high altitudes the crop yield are projected to increase and extend northwards especially for cereals and cool season seed crops such as oil, Crops grown in lower altitudes such as maize sunflower and soya beans could become available further north and at higher altitudes yields could increase by as much as 30% by 2050, Potentially large gains for regions such as russia due to longer planting seasons and more favourable growing conditions amounting to 64% increase over 245 million hectares by the 2080, concerns that gains will be tempered by increase in drought conditions rendering extensive irrigation programmes necessary to benefit from the warmer temperatures
Without adaptations by farmers climate change may not necessarily benefit productivity - Increase in the mean growing season temperature will bring forward harvest time of current varieties and possibly reduce final yield without adaptation to a longer growing season
Losses in productivity - Areas where temps are already close to psychological limits for crops e.g. seasonally arid regions, higher temps will be detrimental, increasing heat stress on crops and water loss by evaporation., Significant modifications to crops strains and/or farming methods may be necessary if agricultural production is to be feasible in such conditions, Varying rainfall patterns will have significant impact on productivity, impact of climate change on regional precipitation is difficult to forecast but there is confidence in projections of a general increase in high altitude rainfall, especially in winter and overall decrease in parts of tropics and subtropics
what are the indirect impacts to the change of agriculture activity due to climate change
Climate change also impact indirectly and adversely on crops through effects
such as - Pests and diseases (Pests such as aphids respond positively to higher levels of co2, Increased temps also reduce their overwintering mortality enabling earlier and more widespread dispersion), Changes in water availability owing to distant climate changes (Water for irrigation often extracted from rivers which depend on distant climatic conditions, Agriculture along the nile in egypt depends on rainfall in the upper reaches of the river in the ethiopian highlands or rwanda mountians), Sea level rise (Vulnerability of crop productivity is greatest where a large sea level rise occurs in conjunction with low lying coastal agriculture, May result in saltwater incursions into aquifers used for irrigation and soils salinisation during fertile farmland near to river deltas)
what are the nutritional impacts to the change of agriculture activity due to climate change
Impact if climate change on global food production will have uncertain and varying consequences for human health and nutrition
Can be viewed from different perspectives depending on levels of development
how does agriculture change in developed regions
Increased food prices may lower nutritional quality of dietary intakes, exacerbate obesity and amplify health inequalities
Changes in agricultural production resulting from new crop and livestock species may lead to use of different pesticides and veterinary medicines and in turn affect transfer mechanisms through which contaminants move for environment into food
Have implication for food safety and nutritional content of food
Complementary promotion of healthier diets and climate change mitigation may increase consumption of foods whose production reduces greenhouse gas emissions
Reducing red meat consumption has positive health effects - reducing levels of saturated fat in the diet and lowering risk of cancers in digestive system
additional benefits of freeing more arable land to grow crops for human consumption
Developed countries may be able to adapt food safety consequences of climate change although ability to respond to nutrition challenge is less certain
how does agriculture change in developing regions
Regions experiencing Rapid economic growth often go through nutritional transition where increased affluence guides the population to a more westernised diet
China seen significant shift from primarily cereal consumption to more mean consumption
Have mixed nutritional results for populations and though it has not come as a result of climate change it will exacerbate the effects through positive feedback
Increased livestock production will increase methane emissions require more land usage for fodder production and so more clearance of forests
how does agriculture change in least developed regions
Regions most vulnerable to loss of production due to climate change
Study by UNICEF found clear and alarming links between climate change and the nutritional status and migration patterns of populations
Predictability of rainfall is critical for rain fed agriculture and climate change has given an unpredictable combination of extended periods of rainfall (leading to floods) and droughts both of which have resulted in crop failure
When crops fail farmers may sell livestock as an economic default which can lead to iron and zinc deficiencies in the diet
Climate induced crop failure in an over reliance on fewer crops which are less likely to fail
Exclusive diets of particular crops lead to specific forms of malnutrition
what are key facts about japan
One of world’s oldest populations
One of lowest birth rates and fertility rates
Population in 2014 - 127.9 million (10 largest globally)
Population density 2014 - 337 per km2
what is the physical environment like in japan and how does it influence its population size and distribution
Mountainous archipelago
Thousands of islands - contain fertile valleys, narrow coastal plains where population is concentrated
Around 70% land is mountainous
People live in small proportion of total land area - urban areas densely populated
Large north - south extension of country so climate varies strongly - Mainly temperate climate, Long cold winters in north, subtropical weather in south - mean temperature in jan 17 degrees, Climate in most major cities is temperate to subtropical and consists of 4 seasons, Rainy season in early summer, Typhoons hit parts of the country every year during late summer
Several continental plates meet
- Experience frequent hazards from earthquakes and volcanic eruptions
Volcanic activity provides population with fertile soil
Soils with temperature and seasonal warmth allows for intensive agricultural production - Population grew and thrive despite risks of typhoons and volcanic activity
Population overcome limitations due to relief of landscape - Terracing to increase farmland availability
Archipelagic nature - Strong seafaring nation, Still has strong fishing industry which provides for its population
Relatively small amounts of fossil fuel and mineral deposits
In industrial age relied on expansion of neighbouring countries e.g. kores to support growing population and its desire to become international superpower
Further expansion into pacific was one of triggers for WW2
demography and culture of japan
Traditional and paternalistic culture - Expects loyalty from individuals who are extremely hardworking and intensely loyal to family, employer and nation
Third largest economy in the world
Gross national income per person is US$48,324
Traditionally males earn money - As economy has moved towards a post industrial service economy, well educated female have become and increasingly important part of the workforce
Females working more ay have impact on birth rates and fertility rates - Birth rates - 8.3/1000, fertility rates - 1.4
Death rates - 9.9/1000 - Japan has natural decrease
population has only stabilised because of migration - Mainly japanese citizens returning
in stage 5 of DTM
Population though to decline by 30% in 2050 and halve by the end of the century
Average life expectancy - 83 - One of highest in the world, Over 65s comprise 23.9% og population in 2013, More than 50,000 centenarians, Infant mortality one of lowest - 2.2/1000 live births, Young dependants make up 13.5% of the population, Percentage of economically active people - 62.6%, Dependency ratio - 60
2025 estimated 33% of japan’s population will be over 65 and 38% by 2050, Face a demographic time bomb - the population decline means that there are not enough young people to replace the older population who are dying out, Burden borne by the working and younger population in supporting the elderly may become unsustainable
what are the reasons for the ageing population in japan
Excellent healthcare, sanitation and high living standards mean high life expectancy
Low fat diets - fewer obesity and heart disease problems
Clean air - japan uses fewer fossil fuels to generate energy relying more on nuclear and HEP
Women receive good education so many are more focused on careers so they have fewer children
Price of schooling in japan has risen - many can only afford to send one child to school
what are the socioeconomic implications of japans ageing population
Consequences can be serious - The domestic economy is shrinking
Consequences can also be trivial - More adult incontinence nappies are sold than baby nappies
All generation are affected by the population structure - 25% of government’s budget is spent on pensions/ social security for the elderly, 40% of all government public spending is on the elderly, Since 1960s retirees pay only a small part of their medical care through a universal system, Working population is shrinking fast - negative impact on domestic economic growth affecting both production (fewer workers) and consumption (less spending), Rise in home care by families who may have to give up full time jobs to become sole carers taking more people out of economic workforce
Pressure on care services for the elderly - more medical and care workers needed, Increasing pressure on NGOs to provide care, Estimated that 3.8 million elderly japanese live alone with no family support, Increasing numbers of elderly living on the streets in poor quality housing or ending up in prison (especially males). Reoffending rates are high as prison offers better care for some, Rising number dementia cases, Elderly are having to return to work to make up their income - 3500 over 65s work for mcdonalds, Increasingly dysfunctional relationships between young couples and the growth of a new group of Japanese ‘thirty something men’ who indulge in fantasy relationships with animes or virtual female leads on computer
Positives - Due to globalisation the japanese manufacturing industry is still very successful and income from large TNCs such as toyota brings in revenue to support the domestic economy, There is a growth in the number of private hospitals specialising in healthcare for the elderly and so creating jobs and income, Increasing demand for leisure activities and tourism among the affluent elderly - also generating income and creating jobs, Embracing new robot technology - to build a partner robot to assist the elderly including companion pets bionic limbs that aid mobility, fetching, carrying. This technology is being developed by some of the larger TNCs such as honda. It is not without problems and is expensive so is only available to the more affluent but already is worth US$1 billion to the economy
what is the response from the japanese government about the ageing population
Japanese government has duty to tackle some of the issues for a sustainable future but has to be cautious with its policies so that it does not alienate the elderly
Responses - Raise taxes - the government has already raised consumption tax by 5% and intends to raise it by a further 5% in 2015 - to maintain revenue and care for the elderly, Raising retirement age to 70, Pro natal population policies - encouraging parents to have more children by increasing maternity leave, child allowances and day care support. Parents also enjoy tax reductions for each child and motherhood is portrayed positively in the media. Many companies support the government by offering financial incentives to staff to become pregnant, Encouraging the robot technology revolution, Encouraging immigration of skilled foreign workers to increase the workforce - short term solution to the dependency problem, has been problematic for the japanese (Japanese is a difficult language to learn and all immigrants are given a rigorous language test which has a high failure rate, Challenging for foreigners to integrate with japanese culture and to cope with the hard work ethic that japanese employers expect, difficult to be accepted by local staff as a result of this)
Japan immigrant population of 2.2 million - 2% total population
Mainly from china and SE Asian countries who have equally strong work ethic
Japan accepts foreign nurses from Indonesia and the philippines
In order to replace the dwindling population and maintain it at current levels by 2050 japan will need a nit migration of over 340,000 per year
Japanese society unlikely to be ready for these numbers
Government has to be careful with their immigration policy
what are the prospects for the global population and its distribution
united nations produces alternative scenarios for future global population based on demographic surveys
projected into future to produce low, medium and high estimates if population
all scenarios show the population growing until 2050
progress been made to reduce the global population growth rate making UNs medium or low growth predictions more realistic - growing empowerment in LDEs e.g. iran
Un still predicts rapid growth in regions of youthful population - potential for shrinkage where ageing populations and low fertility exist
what are the factors in future population - environmental realtionships
climate change - global warming changing climates weather patterns and sea levels. replenished meltwater threatened, sea level rise threatens low lying regions
destruction of natural habitats - within next half century another quarter of remaining forests converted to other uses such as roads and urban areas
loss of biodiversity - significant proportion of worlds wild species and genetic diversity has already been lost, climate change threatens more
unsafe water supplies - most of worlds freshwater is already being used, underground aquifers being depleted more rapidly than replenished
soil erosion - nearly half of all soils are degraded by waterlogging, leaching and salinisation, acidification, erosion between 10 and 40 times the rate of soil formation
loss of wild foods - 2 billion people mostly in LDEs depend on oceans for protein, fish stocks could be managed effectively, overfishing has resulted in the decline or collapse of valuable fisheries worldwide
fossil fuels - still dominate and remain both highly polluting and a significant contributor to global warming, also finite
toxic chemicals - toxins from industry are both manufactured and released effluent, health problems associated with exposure to toxic chemicals such as in plastics
what is the location of boscombe
Boscombe is a suburb of Bournemouth, in the county of Dorset, located on the south west coast of England.
Boscombe coastal ward with resident population of 9,834 in 2011
what is the physical environment like in boscombe
Bournemouth: 7.4 hours average sunshine hours a day
Coastal: Access to beaches, outdoor activities. Accessible fresh air and exercise.
Seaside, sea air historically an attraction for victorians looking for rest
what are the socio economic characteristics of boscombe
Most deprived area in south west england
High unemployment
High levels of deprivation = transient population
Poor lived experience
Living environment index - 93/32844
High crime rate
Crime index - 374/32844
2016 life expectancy
boscombe west - M = 71.4, F = 79.7
bournemouth - M = 78.9 F = 82.9 (10 years higher even though 1 mile away)
UK - M = 78.9, F = 82.8
Most common causes of death - coronary heart disease, stroke, respiratory diseases and cancer
9% described themselves as in bad health/very bad health is boscombe west - 6% nationally
62% households live in privately rented accommodation
Poor quality housing = key cause of poor health
1970/80 fall in investment in built environment as decline of holiday market town - fuelled continued decline
Areas hotels and guest houses turned into HMOs
HMOs, poor quality housing attract specific socio economic groups to area - homeless, vulnerable households and migrant workers
Demand for services is concentrated in the area - comes from drug and alcohol users, unemployed and benefit claims
Drug rehabilitation specialised in boscombe
Rehabilitation introduced in 1980s
Currently 62
Government pays accommodation fees for those who are homeless/ on benefits
Socio economic conditions influence health - unemployment, deprivation, education, high levels of crime
Population that claim unemployment benefits
Boscombe - 3.1%
Bournemouth - 1.5%
UK - 1.9%
All neighbourhoods in boscombe - in 10% most deprived neighbourhoods in England (2010-15)
population with A*- C GCSEs
Boscombe west - 59%
Borough - 57%
experiences/attitude of population
Satisfied with local area as place to live
Boscombe west - 6/10
Borough average - 82%
High perception of antisocial behaviour
Boscombe west - 56%
Borough average - 22%
Satisfied with the way council runs things
Boscombe west - 6/10
Borough average - 69%
what is the action has the boscombe council taken
Operation galaxy (multi - agency approach)
Runs in partnership with the BCP council and Dorset police since 2012
Been in operation since 2015
Aims to reduce the levels of antisocial behaviour, criminality, housing despair, housing management issues and fire risk
Set up by police to prevent people from living in houses that put their lives at risk
In 6 months 31 informal warnings to landlords in relation to accumulation of waste, noise or untidy sites
37 formal notices for poor housing conditions
17 formal notices for environmental issues
Leisure
Gym trail on beach
total cost 1 million
Not used in winter
Artificial reef built in 2008 - meant to offer 120 surfable days a year opened november 2009
Closed
Sustained damage from a boat propeller
Car park
Bought for 3 million
Apartments built there
Sea view flats sold for £995,000, others sold for £400,000-600,000
what is the health in boscombe relating to physical and built environment
hosts to several open spaces, majority situated along the seafront
Open spaces and parks are important for recreation, well-being and physical activity
Two of Boscombe’s main garden parks - Chine Gardens and Cliff Gardens
beach spanning 2km long hosts activities such as bouldering, slack lining and waterspouts. This can have a positive effect on health, social cohesion and mental well-being.
large regeneration project - restoration began on the pier in 2007, later refurbished in 2014
artificial surf reef costing £3m built in 2009, promising to attract surfers from across Britain, after 2 years the reef was deemed unfit for purpose.
82% (in 2017) satisfied with parks and open spaces
usage has gradually declined since 2012 - 68% perceiving people being drunk or rowdy in public places as a common problem
Many residents in a survey complained about the presence of anti-social behaviour and drug-users in these gardens.
what is the health in boscombe relating to physical and built environment - housing
2016 average house price - £229,480 - significantly lower compared to Bournemouth
Cheaper housing attracts people on low incomes/benefits and new arrivals
housing continues to be unaffordable for most residents - who would need to borrow over 7 times their income to afford the average property
As a result, 62% of tenure in Boscombe West is privately rented
34.5% of households are classed as living in overcrowded conditions
recent survey found nearly 1/3rd of people had lived in their homes less than 2 years, and over half wanted to move in the next 5 years.
Many people coming into the area are at the bottom of the social ladder
Boscombe West 2nd highest level of empty properties in the borough (120 homes), mainly due to the decline of domestic tourism
HMOs grew and poor-quality cheap housing attracted people on low incomes and drug users
Action to improve housing would benefit not just the occupier but also the wider community.
what is the socio economic conditions influence health in boscombe - income and employment
2011 - the percentage of benefit claimants is higher in Boscombe West than in Bournemouth as a whole - 32% compared with 15%.
2016 - average household income was £35K, 5% below the UK average of £37K
Many people in Boscombe live on low incomes, i.e. less than £120 a week for a single person after hosting costs or less than £288 for a family of two adults & two children.
Boscombe West has lower percentage employed in professional occupations - 14.8%, 17.5% nationally
lower percentage employed in administrative and secretarial occupations (7.3% compared to 11.5% for England)
higher percentage employed in ‘caring leisure & service occupations’ and ‘elementary occupations’.
economically active population has increased by 1,920 over ten-year period and is double the rate of growth in the Borough
biggest increase is among those working full-time which has increased from 36.8% to 41.% significantly higher than the Bournemouth figure of 37.2%.
what is the Socio economic conditions influence health - education in boscombe
Education linked to income, and also impacts on lifestyle - on average, people with lower levels of education have a lower life expectancy and higher morbidity rates for many common diseases, e.g. heart and respiratory disease.
2013/14 academic year, fewer children from Boscombe West achieved 5 A* - C grades including English and Maths (32.7%)
amongst the worst 10% of areas across Dorset and compared to 57% for England.
In Boscombe West (2016) 21% of people aged 16-64 had no qualifications, compared to 20% for England, suggesting that the adult population is relatively well educated.
Boscombe West was in the top 10% (worse) areas across Dorset (2020) for ‘percentage of children living in income deprived families’ and ‘child development at age of 5’.
what are the People attitudes towards health and well being can affect their well being in boscombe
Boscombe central has highest level of health deprivation in the South West
relative level of deprivation has deteriorated since 2004
Adults and children living in Boscombe West more likely to be obese than the rest of Bournemeouth
rate of smoking amongst adults is high
Ward ranked highest in Bournemouth for all early deaths is significantly higher than the next highest ward.
Life Expectancy in Boscombe West is worst in borough with a gap of at least 8 years less for men and 6 years less for women on average compared to national average.
what experiences in bosocombe can experience health
Living in a lively, safe place with a strong sense of community is more likely to make people feel happy and want to stay in the area
increases well-being and encourages healthier lifestyles.
part of its regeneration project, Boscombe has a picturesque sandy beach, with an art trail leading up into the town centre through several garden spaces
has number of community centres
promotes the use of physical activity through the installation of workout machines and bouldering structures dotted along the seafront - helps to build a sense of community.
crime rate is higher than national average - 393 reported crimes occurred in Jan 2020 alone
Fear of anti-social behaviour has a negative effect on people’s quality of life, due to stress and prevents people from using public spaces.
36% of children classified as living in poverty after housing costs
25% nationally
46% of families receive Child Benefit.
what are some statistics about boscombe
39% adults smoke
28% adults are obese
27% adults have a limiting long term health illness
10.5% children are obese
what are statistics for boscombe west
population - 10,876 in 2011; 2013 - 11,300, an increase of just under 4%
residents’ average age is 38
2013 - 7,700 people of working age - 68% of the population
more ethnically diverse than Bournemouth or the South West
less than 81% of the population describing themselves as White-British
second largest category is ‘White-Other’ (10.3%)
Around 41% of 16-74 year olds in employment work in managerial, professional or associate professional or technical occupations
smaller proportion of residents aged 16-74 without a qualification than nationally but around the same proportion of residents with a degree or equivalent qualification
Life Expectancy – 79 males/82 females
2011 24% of households had at least one member with a limiting long-term illness
82% of residents described their health as very good or good
9.5% of the population provided unpaid care
Tenure
57% of households are owner occupiers
36% renting privately
7% renting from housing associations or the local authority
Purpose built flats and flats in converted houses largest housing type.
19.5% of children in ward classified as living in poverty before housing costs
rises to 30.2% after housing costs are added
Borough - 15.8% before housing costs, 25% after
Uk - 15.9% and 25.1%
