Patterns of Global and African Economic Development Flashcards
major low and middle income regions of the world
east Asia, Latin America, MENA, south Asia, SSA
why is SSA the focus?
worst economic performance since 1975
poorest and least developed continent along several dimensions:
- lowest rates of education
- lowest life expectancy
- lowest rates of electrification
- highest rates of political instability and violence
also poised to become the world’s most populous region in the coming decades
25 poorest countries in the world (human development report)
bottom 30-32 countries are in SSA
whether it’s per-capita income, years of schooling, life expectancy, etc. SSA countries are among the poorest in the world
a lot of countries aren’t just poor but also had armed conflict
dimensions of human development beyond GDP/income
inequality (gender, etc.)
infrastructure
environmental quality
violence/armed conflict
democracy/political freedom
legal system
many more!
economic growth rates in different regions
slower in SSA than other development regions since 1960, but have rebounded since 2000
- negative growth in the last 30 years
- 2000-2010 had faster global growth (>4% annually since 2000)
every region had faster global growth in 2000-2010 compared with 2010-2020
rapid economic growth in China/SE Asia
- big divergence between this and SSA since they started with similar poverty levels in the 70s/80s
Arab states also had disappointing per capita growth
- still better than SSA and big increases due to oil price booms
composition of growth in different regions
SSA had faster growth in agriculture than industry
- compared to other low-income countries, less growth comes from industry/manufacturing
extreme poverty in different regions
starting around 1990, in SSA, south Asia and east Asia, around half the population in all regions was living in extreme poverty
since then, sharp reductions in extreme poverty in east Asia, rapid reductions in south Asia and gradual reductions in SSA
- growth is positive, poverty is falling but slower than other low and middle income regions of the world
fertility in different regions
average fertility in 1950 used to be in the 5-7 range in Asia, Latin America, SSA, MENA
- already fallen in NA and Europe (around 3)
average fertility fell in every region in the next decades - global pattern
East Asia has an incredible decline (influenced by China) in the 80s
North Africa and SSA had similar high fertility rates but North Africa dropped dramatically much quicker
- shallow decline in SSA from 7-8 to about 4-5
median age in SSA is 19, compared with east Asia where it’s 37
total population in different regions
in 1960 (when SSA became independent from European colonisers), about 200M in US and SSA
- India had double that, China had three times that
still see exponential growth in SSA now
- India has caught up to China, US has linear growth
SSA to become the most populous region in our lifetime
- 2.5B in SSA in 2060 (same as China and India combined)
why did African economic performance deteriorate sharply in the 1970s?
oil price shocks and global recessions
widespread drought with massive famines
unsustainable fiscal policies which led to rising debt
positive trend: human resource gains in SSA
even in the 70s-90s, education rates rose in most African countries
- primary school enrolment from 40% in 60s to 70% in 90s and near universal levels since
- strong increases in literacy and school enrolment since independence
- school quality is still low (large class size, teacher absenteeism, scarce supplies, etc)
health measures have improved
- infant mortality rates and under 5 mortality rates have continued to fall despite slow/negative growth
- child mortality has fallen in all regions of the world and SSA
- between 2000-2020, child mortality fell by half in SSA
- health gains slowed in 80s from HIV/AIDS
- public health systems underfunded
4 questions to understand African economic performance
why was African economic performance relatively strong in the 1960s and 1970s?
why did African economic performance deteriorate so sharply from 1975-2000?
what happened since 2000 to turn things around?
what should we expect from the next 20 years?
positive trend: democracy (e.g. Kenya)
from 2002-2007, economy experienced fastest growth in three decades
- this faced challenges
rigged December 2007 elections set off violent protests, ethnic cleansing, political instability and civil violence
economy has returned to rapid growth with the 2013, 2017 and 2022 elections relatively peaceful
Radelet (2010) where democratic reforms precede economic turnaround and countries that democfratise have the best economic performance
