Part 1

Question 1

Cue

Answer 1

• (a piece of) information that people use as a signal to lead them to a decision

Question 2

Decision tree

Answer 2

• a hierarchical model for decision-making
• a strategy to help people make decisions
  -Identifies relevant conditions that lead to consequences
• identifies consequences or outcomes based on listed conditions

(Hierarchical is having levels of importance)

Question 3

Normative models

Answer 3

• an established system
• used to reach the optimal decision

Question 4

Computational capacity

Answer 4

The maximum amount of computational power
That is available to process information

Question 5

Prescriptive models

Answer 5

How people should make decisions
Decision optimal given constraints of time and cognitive resources

(Recommend people use some, not all of the cues)
(Recommendations about how people reach the optimal decision)

Question 6

Descriptive models

Answer 6

An account of how people actually make decisions
Ex heuristics, cognitive biases

Question 7

heuristic

Answer 7

A rule that people use to make decisions
These rules are :
- systematic
- quick to use
- easy to use

Also
- used under conditions of uncertainty
- simplifies the procedure / reduces complexityfor obtaining a probability
Reduces the complexity of obtai

Question 8

Bias

Answer 8

A systematic distortion of a statistical result
A statistical preference of one choice over another

Question 9

Representativeness heuristic

Answer 9

An event a is judged more probable than an event b whenever a appears more representative than b

Question 10

Fast and frugal heuristics

Answer 10

Fast because we reach a decision quickly
Frugal because simple, and does not use a lot of computational power
Heuristics because we want these rules to be systematically used to make decisions

Question 11

Fast and frugal approach (assumptions)

Answer 11

Heuristics evolved as result of interactions with the environment
Heuristics are adaptive
Heuristics strike a balance btw minimizing computational power and speed, and maximizing accuracy (ideal trade off)

Question 12

Recognition heuristic

Answer 12

If one of two objects is recognized and the other is not, then infer that the recognized object has the higher value with respect to the criterion

Question 13

Dual process theory

Answer 13

For higher level cognitive tasks, there are two types of processes, and there are two corresponding systems
The goal is to identify the characteristics of each type of procès

Question 14

Dual process theory

Answer 14

For higher level cognitive tasks, there are two types of processes
There are two corresponding systems
The goal : identify the characteristics of each type of process

Question 15

Type 1 process

Answer 15

No working memory
Autonomous/ automatic ( not a lot of cognitive resources required
Easy, automatic, unconscious, low computational power
Emotional or intuitive

Question 16

Type 2 process

Answer 16

Working memory
Not autonomous/ automatic (controlled)
Construction of mental models
Cognitive decoupling (separating association)
Slow, controlled, onscious, high computational power
Intellectual/reasoning

Question 17

Uncertainty

Answer 17

The probability of an event occurring is not equal to zero or one

Question 18

Likelihood judgement

Answer 18

Judgement of how probable an event is to occur or how likely a fact is to be true

Question 19

Availability heuristic

Answer 19

“People assess the frequency of a class or the probability of an event by the ease with which instances or occurrences can be brought to mind

Question 20

Question: do people use the availability heuristic when estimating frequencies?

Answer 20

Yes they do

Normative model- count # of items/events
Descriptive model- use rule: how many items can you remember; how many items can be easily recalled

Question 21

Method: relative frequency-of-occurrence judgement

Answer 21

Participants given or asked to generate lists of two possible events/items
Participants asked to determine which item/event occurs more frequently

Question 22

Do people still use the availability heuristic to estimate frequencies when the actual frequencies are presented?

Answer 22

Yes, when people estimate frequencies based on available information, people use the availability heuristic

Question 23

Method: set size judgement

Answer 23

Participants asked to estimate the number of items in the set or class

Question 24

The law of small numbers

Answer 24

The tendency to think of small samples that appear random as representative of the population

Question 25

Base rate

Answer 25

Unconditional probability
Probability that does not take into account any existing evidence

Question 26

Base rate fallacy

Answer 26

When people estimate probabilities, people ignore relevant statistical information
People favour information based on a single case/ sample size of one

Question 27

Do people use the representativeness heuristic?
What two fallacies might be observed as a consequence?

Answer 27

Yes, and as a consequence, people commit the base rate fallacy and the conjunction falllacy

Question 28

Conjunction fallacy

Answer 28

People fail to consider the implications of the word “and” when making probability judgements; base instead on context