Part 1 Flashcards
Cue
- (a piece of) information that people use as a signal to lead them to a decision
Decision tree
- a hierarchical model for decision-making
- a strategy to help people make decisions
-Identifies relevant conditions that lead to consequences - identifies consequences or outcomes based on listed conditions
(Hierarchical is having levels of importance)
Normative models
- an established system
- used to reach the optimal decision
Computational capacity
The maximum amount of computational power
That is available to process information
Prescriptive models
How people should make decisions
Decision optimal given constraints of time and cognitive resources
(Recommend people use some, not all of the cues)
(Recommendations about how people reach the optimal decision)
Descriptive models
An account of how people actually make decisions
Ex heuristics, cognitive biases
heuristic
A rule that people use to make decisions
These rules are :
- systematic
- quick to use
- easy to use
Also
- used under conditions of uncertainty
- simplifies the procedure / reduces complexityfor obtaining a probability
Reduces the complexity of obtai
Bias
A systematic distortion of a statistical result
A statistical preference of one choice over another
Representativeness heuristic
An event a is judged more probable than an event b whenever a appears more representative than b
Fast and frugal heuristics
Fast because we reach a decision quickly
Frugal because simple, and does not use a lot of computational power
Heuristics because we want these rules to be systematically used to make decisions
Fast and frugal approach (assumptions)
Heuristics evolved as result of interactions with the environment
Heuristics are adaptive
Heuristics strike a balance btw minimizing computational power and speed, and maximizing accuracy (ideal trade off)
Recognition heuristic
If one of two objects is recognized and the other is not, then infer that the recognized object has the higher value with respect to the criterion
Dual process theory
For higher level cognitive tasks, there are two types of processes, and there are two corresponding systems
The goal is to identify the characteristics of each type of procès
Dual process theory
For higher level cognitive tasks, there are two types of processes
There are two corresponding systems
The goal : identify the characteristics of each type of process
Type 1 process
No working memory
Autonomous/ automatic ( not a lot of cognitive resources required
Easy, automatic, unconscious, low computational power
Emotional or intuitive
Type 2 process
Working memory
Not autonomous/ automatic (controlled)
Construction of mental models
Cognitive decoupling (separating association)
Slow, controlled, onscious, high computational power
Intellectual/reasoning
Uncertainty
The probability of an event occurring is not equal to zero or one
Likelihood judgement
Judgement of how probable an event is to occur or how likely a fact is to be true
Availability heuristic
“People assess the frequency of a class or the probability of an event by the ease with which instances or occurrences can be brought to mind
Question: do people use the availability heuristic when estimating frequencies?
Yes they do
Normative model- count # of items/events
Descriptive model- use rule: how many items can you remember; how many items can be easily recalled
Method: relative frequency-of-occurrence judgement
Participants given or asked to generate lists of two possible events/items
Participants asked to determine which item/event occurs more frequently
Do people still use the availability heuristic to estimate frequencies when the actual frequencies are presented?
Yes, when people estimate frequencies based on available information, people use the availability heuristic
Method: set size judgement
Participants asked to estimate the number of items in the set or class
The law of small numbers
The tendency to think of small samples that appear random as representative of the population
Base rate
Unconditional probability
Probability that does not take into account any existing evidence
Base rate fallacy
When people estimate probabilities, people ignore relevant statistical information
People favour information based on a single case/ sample size of one
Do people use the representativeness heuristic?
What two fallacies might be observed as a consequence?
Yes, and as a consequence, people commit the base rate fallacy and the conjunction falllacy
Conjunction fallacy
People fail to consider the implications of the word “and” when making probability judgements; base instead on context
