Lecture 5

Question 1

Hindsight Bias

Answer 1

• Current bias towards previous probability and statistical judgements about past events
• Bias based on knowledge of actual outcomes

Question 2

hindsight vs Foresight

Answer 2

Hindsight: Event has happened, Outcome is known
Foresight: Event has not happened, Outcome is not known

Question 3

Judgements based on hindsight also known as:

Answer 3

Postdictive judgements

Question 4

Judgements based on foresight also known as:

Answer 4

predictive judgements

Question 5

Creeping determinism

Answer 5

“the relative view that an event is inevitable”
Another word for hindsight bias
creeping because this type of determinism is relative

Question 6

determinism vs creeping determinism

Answer 6

Determinism:
* Perceived inevitability of
outcome is absolute
* recall of past prediction that
outcome will occur in terms
of a probability = 1

Creeping determinism:
- Perceived inevitability of
outcome is relative
* recall of past prediction that
outcome will occur in terms
of a probability: NOT 1.0

Question 7

Judgements in hindsight produce:

Answer 7

Provide Higher likelihood for
actual outcome
Lower likelihood for alternative
outcomes

Question 8

Memory Paradigm

Answer 8

*Estimate probability of possible outcomes for
a future event
*Event occurs
*Recall the probability that was estimated for
each possible outcome

Question 9

Question:
Is there evidence for hindsight bias (aka
creeping determinism) [Fischoff & Blyth, 1975]

Answer 9

*There is evidence for hindsight bias
*Recalled probabilities were biased or
“creeping” toward the probability of the
actual outcome.

Question 10

Selective Activation, Reconstruction and Anchoring (SARA)

Answer 10

• Selective activation of relevant information
• Outcome for the original prediction is also activated
• Reconstruction of original prediction process using activated
  information
• “anchored” toward probability of the known outcome

Question 11

Probability Cue

Answer 11

A cue that might use based on how likely the
cue will lead to a correct or optimal decision

Question 12

Cue Value

Answer 12

The value associated with each item being
compared based on the criteria set by the
probability cue

Question 13

Take-The-Best

Answer 13

A prescriptive strategy
* Search for the probability cue that can differentiate between
the two items that are compared
* Start search based on how likely the cue can lead to a correct
decision
* Probability cue is found choose the item with the higher cue
value

Question 14

Reconstruction After Feedback with Take-The-Best (RAFT)

Answer 14

• Apply take-the-best strategy
• Estimate the probability that the probability cue will lead to
  the optimal decision
• Consider feedback based on outcome of prediction
• Include feedback and re-estimate the probability that the
  probability cue will lead to the optima decision