Lecture 6 Flashcards
Prediction
A judgment made about an outcome before
the outcome knowledge is known
Profiling
Creating or writing an outline or article that
describes a person
Clinical Intuition
“people with experience and expertise in the
domain make intuitive prediction for individual
cases”
*Used by clinicians with a lot of experience
profiling cases
*Interview patient about life-story
*Consider important facts and make decision
*Use experience and intuition to understand the
interactions between descriptive statements of
the case
Statistical Prediction
“prediction about a particular case are made
solely on the basis of empirical evidence
and/or a statistical comparison to data drawn
from a large sample”
*Based on Empirical data set.
*Data set is usually large
*Predictions based on comparison of scores from
a patient with scores from data set
Blind Empiricism
States conditions when question is useful:
*A question is useful if people’s responses to a
question can predict behaviors or disorders
*As long as question can make accurate
predictions, question is useful even if not
based on reason or on theory
Clinical Intuition Vs Statistical Prediction
Clinical Intuition:
* Based on interviews
* Follow-up Questions can be
asked based on responses
provided by patient
* Qualitatively rich source of
information
Statistical Prediction:
* Based on direct reports or selfreports of patient
* Statistical comparison of
patients reports to large data
set
* Prediction about diagnosis
based on statistical comparison
with responses from large data
set
Question
Which is more accurate: Intuition or
prediction?
Which is more accurate? Intuition or prediction?
“mechanical predictions of human behaviors are
equal or superior to clinical predictions
(intuition) methods for a wide range of
circumstances.”
Meta-Analysis
An analysis of several analyses that answers a
specific question
Why is clinical intuition inferior to mechanical
prediction?
- Ignore base rates and prior probabilities
- Overreliance on the representativeness heuristic
- Overreliance on the availability heuristic
- Assign nonoptimal weights to cues
Question:
Does expertise have any effect on validity of
judgments?
There is no evidence that expertise has an
effect on validity of judgments
Predictor
*Information that people use as a signal to lead
them to a decision
*The outcome of the decision is not known
Validity
*Information that is correlated with the
accuracy of a judgment or decision
*Using a valid predictor to make a decision is
more likely to lead you to a correct decision
than using an invalid predictor.
Question
What kind of feedback is useful?
*Corrective feedback on validity of predictors
*Direct attention away from invalid predictors
*Direct attention toward valid predictors
Question:
How accurate are predictions of weather
forecasters compared to computational or
statistical predictions?
Weather forecasters are at least just as accurate as statistical models
WHY ARE WEATHER FORECASTERS MORE
ACCURATE THAN CLINICIANS AT MAKING
PREDICTIONS?
*Consistent and immediate feedback about
predictors
*Practice effects
*Easy-access to base-rate information
task predictability based on predictors
high and precise quality of predictors
model that provides accurate forecasts
