Paper 3 Futures And Uncertainties Flashcards
Carbon cycle: What are the physical factors that make future prediction about climate change uncertain?
- Oceans and forests act as carbon sinks and stroke heat. Oceans take decades to respond to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. Their response to higher levels of greenhouse gases and higher temperatures will continue to affect climate change for possibly hundreds of years.
- Human factors also play a role in forests. Although the amount of forested land is increasing in high income countries, the overall global total is falling- particularly in the tropics.
Carbon cycle: What are the human factors that make future prediction about climate change uncertain?
Economic growth
Energy sources
Population change
Carbon cycle: Why does economic growth make future prediction about climate change uncertain?
After the finial crisis in 2007-8, there was a worry that rising CO2 emissions would follow the recovery of GDP. However, after rising by 4% per year since 2000, the rate of emission fell by 1% in 2012-13, and by 0.5% in 2914. Nevertheless, total carbon emissions still reached a new record
Carbon cycle: Why does energy sources make future prediction about climate change uncertain?
Energy consumption grew by 2% between 2008 and 2014. However, renewable sources made up 2/3 of the increase in electricity production in 2015.
Carbon cycle: Why does population change make future prediction about climate change uncertain?
Increasing affluence in emerging economies means a potential extra billion consumers by 2050- with spending power equal to the USA. Changing diets and increased mobility mean more emissions.
Carbon cycle: Why does peatlands future prediction about climate change uncertain?
Most of the world’s wetlands are peat. Peat is the accumulation of partly decayed vegetation, and stores large amounts of carbon, because of the low rate of carbon breakdown (decomposition) in cold waterlogged soils.
Warming causes peat to dry out as well as the water tables fall, as well as increasing the rate of decomposition.
A warming of 4% causes a 40% loss of soil organic carbon from shallow peat, and 86% from deep peat. Peatlands tend to emit carbon in the form of methane, increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases.
Carbon cycle: Why does permafrost future prediction about climate change uncertain?
When permafrost melts, it releases trapped carbon into the atmosphere as CO2 and methane- increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and leading to increased temperatures and melting .
Superpowers: Uncertainty for existing superpowers: What are the economic challenges for the USA?
- National debt in 2016 stood at $19 trillion.
- The USA between 2012 and 2014 spent over $900 billion on its military (this is more than the whole GDP of Indonesia).
Superpowers: Uncertainty for existing superpowers: What are the demographic challenges for the USA?
The population is expected to grow from 324 million in 2016 to 415 million in 2060 which will lead to pressure on services and infrastructure.
Superpowers: Uncertainty for existing superpowers: What are the political challenges for the USA?
- There is often a political deadlock between democrats and Republicans at state level.
Superpowers: Uncertainty for existing superpowers: What are the resources challenges for the USA?
- Water insecurity is a major problem in the South West. Many droughts affect this area, and an increasing number of illegally used aquifers will further drain supplies unsustainably.
Superpowers: Uncertainty for existing superpowers: What are the social challenges for the USA?
- Health spending constitutes around 17% of USA’s annual GDP, this is every big cost for people and the government.
- 70% of Americans are overweight, with obesity, diabetes and cancer causing serious health problems or death for the population
Superpowers: Uncertainty for existing superpowers: New ways states may show their economic ability or political influence?
Nuclear weapons- Governments currently invest in nuclear weapons to deter potential attackers.
Space exploration- Many countries now have space exploration programmes. This may prove profitable in the future, as exploration of Mars may provide countries with natural resources and energy sources.
Intelligence services- After recent attacks in the West, governments value their intelligence services. Also, with the rise of international incidents (for example, Russian nerve agent poisonings in the UK) teh need for espionage on other states may increase.
Water cycle: Why are there uncertainties about future drought/ flood risks?
Computer modelling shows that as greenhouse gases warm the planet:
- Different regions of the world will warm at different rates
- La Niño and El Niño events will become more extreme
- Regions bordering the Pacific will see flood seasons following drought seasons and vice versa.
Globalisation:
