Nigeria Flashcards
colonial rule
direct rule = France
- French laws and customs
- centralized
- ideology of assimilation
- citoyens et sujets (all sujets are equal, diff from UK which offten used hierarchical classifications, not so much in Nigeria: there they just woudnt talk to each other)
indirect rule = British
- ruling through ‘legitimate’ traditional rulers in place (+ let them expand their power bc that’s more efficient -> e.g. schism Hausa-Fulani and Kanuri)
in Nigeria: rule through emirates in the north + Yoruba kingdoms in the south - revenue collection and judicial aspects
- local customary law is maintained
- divide and rule (people north and south hardly interacted)
resistance to colonial rule
was not cross-cutting: no resistance movement that was a national movement (bc the north and south didn’t really contact with each other)
southern resistance dominates
early political parties were mostly in the south + culturally based (British prohibited formation parties and unions that would bring people from diff ethnicities together -> only cultural associations (to prevent people rising together))
= ethnically based early parties (e.g. National Council of Nigeria and the Cameroons (Igbos))
North didn’t really have much resistance for a long time bc southern ideas were blocked from going to the north + north were afraid that Westminster-Whitehall system would lead to the Yoruba and Igbo dominating the state bc they were higher educated
eventually northern based party
3 major ethnic groups -> 3 major political parties
independence
= immediately federal state: recognized tensions between groups = to protect the groups from dominance of each other (north most population -> possibly could rule everyone -> failsafes agains this)
-> own political and eco developments and resources
south more democratically oriented
north wanted to protect Hausa-Fulani emirate rule
became independent with 3 subnaitonal units + in 1964 a fourth was created (midwestern region) bc minorities felt marginalized by the Igbo and Yoruba
comparison with the UK
diff = Nigeria is federal
similar: westminster-whitehall system with
- SMD
- prime minister, parliament
- all the usual things
!!duverger’s law does not work here in the 1959 general elections:
Duverger’s law does not prevent regional parties with strong regional identities from arising
- also visible in UK, there it is limited bc the regional identity of the Irish are limited
Nigeria = 3 main regional identities -> 3 main parties = ethnic voting
Duverger’s law is plausible in homogeneous societies
Nigeria = instable tripolar system
First Republic
fragile coalition between the North and the South-East
western Yoruba group out of power
not able to appease inter-group tensions even though there was a federal system in place
political leaders + media were spurring ethnic hatred + fear of other groups
- fear that the north would rule the south, force islam upon it
- fear that the Igbos would fill the whole bureaucracy bc they had the highest education
vocal points:
- Western Crisis 1962: Yoruba group in the west (not in power federally speaking) crisis two major party leaders -> gov unable to rule -> northern based federal gov intervened and supported one political leader -> fueled idea that northern central gov can intervene in regional gov even tough they thought they had their own autonomy
- census of 1964 = up until today no reliable national census: bc population nrs determine the seats in parliament, people are afraid that they will be marginalized -> on the census they inflate their populations
*2006 census was so protested that it did not lead to a change in seats
Also: massive elite corruption (both in north and south east) + repression civilians -> coup 1966 not necessarily badly received
coup and counter coup (first republic)
1966 Igbo majors coup -> death important northern leaders
-> northern pogroms against Igbo’s (bc they lived there to trade)
coup failed: stopped by the military, but the military leader Ironsi was also Igbo -> unrest, esp. bc he declared a military regime + ‘unitary state’
northern counter-coup of northern military leaders -> declaration unitary state + leader was christian and from a minority group, so that kind of appeased some tensions
! it ws not purely norhtern led
Biafra civil war
1967-1970
Igbo pogroms in the north -> Igbos flee back to south eastern region + premier declared independence
- south argued they were being marginalized and attacked -> therefore wanted independence
- north argued that the south had just found oil in the region and wanted to keep all the profit
= brutal war, people died from starvation bc blocking food transport
Gowon Return to federalism during the civil war to break the power of the south east, he declared 12 states + separated the south south states with the minorities from the predominant Igbo states, goal to make the minorities afraid of the Igbos, afraid they would be together with them in an independent state -> would not go against the central gov now
-> north broke the unity in the east (so the return to federalism worked), but there was a policy of no victor no vanquished (want to incorporate the Igbos back into the population)
repubics and military regimes
First Republic 1960-66
Obasanjo takes over, gives away military power to a second republic
Second Republic 1979-1983
but this Hubari overturns the republic to a new military regime
short lived Third republic 1993: did not come through
Abacu took over power
1999 fourth republic:
Abacha found dead in 1998 (most people relate this to a palace coup: other leaders going against him)
during that time = oil more and more important for wealth
part of keeping the peace since the Biafra war is to share resources
(ethnic cleavages remain)
ethnic cleavages remain
MASSOB organization in the South East wants a new Biafra state with independence
Yoruba group want republic
Niger delta militants want more autonomy
farmer-herder conflict in the middle belt
Boko Harram crisis in the north east
all conflicts have to do with identity cleavages but also marginalization and political power
democracy cleavage
some people want democracy
others are proviting from the hybrid regime (with not sufficiently free and fair elections)
1999 = people high hope for democracy in Nigeria
2001 = immense drop in faith in democracy the way it is done in Nigeria
power-sharing in Nigeria
2nd republic => 4th republic
tweaks constitution to move to the second republic = some constitutional engineering
!!second repubic constittuion has been returned to in the 4th republic
1999 constitution = constitutional/electoral engineering to make sure that we don’t have fears of marginalization again + people outvoting other people + don’t have something like another Biafra civil war
!US inspired constitution + political system (so abandoned the westminster whitehall system to a large extent)
= directly elected president
= federal system = symmetric
= supreme court to protect the institutions of the federal states from each other
= SMD FPTP
didn’t consider this as sufficient: ethnic party ban in the constitution = party can’t have ethnic symbols or names + headquarters need to be in diff parts of the country
! this was not sufficient to prevent tripolar ethnic voting that we saw to occur
the president
= head of state and of gov
- presidential veto can be overruled by 2/3 majority in both chambers (has happened in the past)
quite a strong/assertive parliament - 4y terms, max 2 terms
- executive bills (most of the bills), executive orders (decrees)
- impeachment procedure (2/3 majority in both chambers: both to open a criminal case, 2/3 to decide over the impeachment)
! elections have built-in notion of liberal democracy although they are majoritarian:
direct election + conditions :
- highest nr votes
- enough popularity across regions: not less than 1/4 of the votes of at least 2/3 of all the States in the Federation and the Federal Capital Territory Abuja
! informal rule between the elites that has now been abandoned = that presidency would rotate between the north and the south
- last elections: didn’t follow that rule
now: religion also more important: make sure that the president is elected on a ticket with a vice president that has a different religion
2023 presidential election
image similar to that of 1959: one group dominant in the south east, one in the south west and one in the north
= cause of concern today
parliament: national assembly
bicameral:
- house of representatives = 360 members, population based -> northern majority
- senate = 109, also northern majority bc slightly more northern states
! slight northern majority in both, but measures to prevent tensions: rotating positions, dividing the money etc.
legislation needs to be passed by both chambers = liberal democratic notion: protection of the states and against demographic majority
elections for both houses = SMD/FPTP
- house = population based
- senate = 3 per state + 1 for the Federal Capital Territory of Abuja
diff from Germany: there upper house also population based
elections at same time as presidential elections (so: every 4 years)
parliament = assertive and corrupt: constraint on presidential power: those who have best access to state resources, though access committees, civil administration and inflated contracts -> those are most likely to counter the power of the president: the president does not own the parliamentarians
diff from Duma: also corrupt, but power lies with Putin, he can cut parliamentarians off = different patterns of power
supreme court
appointed by president on recommendation of the National Judicial Council + subject to confirmation by the Senate
presidential bias (bc president appoints)? hard to say
- has in the past gone against the president, in favor of the states in issues over taxes etc.
- e.g. discussion on Abacha loots: millions in swiss bank accounts, gov has been trying to get it back, discussion on how it will be divided (we don’t know what the court will decide)
federalism
36 states today, more and more over time (bc own state -> own budget, no fear of how it will be distributed)
1999 = max 36 states (36 parliaments, 36 state govs., 36 public administrations), 770 local government areas + can only be changed by 2/3 majority both houses + 2/3 in each state house -> difficult to change now
money that comes in the federal revenue account has to be distributed to the states, how this is done is contentious, look e.g. at equality, population, social development
also contentious: vertical distribution: how much money is distributed to the federal gov and how much to the states, argue that too much is going to the federal state BUT states are not less powerful (they get a lot of oil money directly into accounts + are not transparant in how it is dispersed to the local gov)
gubernational coattail
if you are a candidate in a power and you get elected because you are in the party of a popular governor
parliamentarians have their positions beholden to the success of a governor, they bring them to power, give them the money, the party tickets etc. needed to be elected
this brings a lot of power to the subnational units: governors make sure that parliamentarians go against presidential bills that are not beneficial for the governors
this is diff than presidential system , where parliamentarians are there on behalf of the president
In Nigeria = alliance politics, president only in power bc he pays people from diff ethnic groups to vote advocate and vote for him
regions have a lot of power bc politics is organized alongside ethnicity, and that is local
PDP demise
PDP = People’s Democratic Party
main party after 1999 fourth republic, for long time one party state (like in SA)
over time, esp. 2015 PDP has lost -> turnover
- mostly bc emergence All Progressive Congress (combi earlier opposition parties + defactors PDP)
2015 turnover in power = sign of democratization, incline V-dem, but this flattened after bc it didn’t fundamntally change things (same politicians + corruption + rule of decree)
party politics = 2 main parties + now a third emerging in the south east
!informal practice of rotating president now over
PDP
People’s Democratic Party
specifcally created to become the party in power 1999, it was until 2015
- former dictator became president (Obasanjo)
Obasanjo never got support in Yoruba (where he came from) bc the guy who was supposed to become the president in the third republic 1993 was also Yoruban, found that Obasanja by taking over power gave up on the memory of 1993 by forming alliances
PDP in power for a long time bc multi-ethnic alliances + people gain from the states
BUT PDP demise 2015:
- ordinary people do not gain from the states
- electoral violence 2007 and 2011
- failures in stemming the Boko Harram crisis in the north east
- north felt like Good Luck Jonathan was breaking the rotation (informal) agreement, presidency should come back to the north -> defections to the APC (+taking their support with them)
APC
All Progressive Congress
mostly popular in the southwestern Yoruba region
2013
alliance north and south west with the Yoruba’s mainly behind it
they picked a northern president bc that would lead to support, always an alliance that Tinubu would take over
Labour Party
founded 2002, lot of south east following
Peter Obi gains lot of success (before it was quite small)
anti-corruption, but also corrupt
support pro-democracy youth = they call themselves the Obedients
Obi is Igbo -> question if success is more bc feeling Igbo marginalization or calls for more democracy
lot of support in the south east
unity in diversity?
for now Nigeria persists
ethnic mobilization is prevalent
multi-ethnic coalitions supported by
- ethnic party ban (does not prevent ethnic based vote)
- electoral engineering (strong federal system with strong Senate + executive gov at federal level has to have minister of state of each state next to actual ministers of diff portfolios/cabinets)
- federal character
- corruption and clientelism
“federal character” = tool to maintain stability and prevent conflict
- constitutional law: “no predominance of persons from a few states/ethnicities in the federal government and its agencies”
- = fear of the north, that the south would rule bc higher education
- commission trying to implement it: has a formula to equally represent states, but it works slowly and now we still see differences, feel marginalized
- equitable distribution socio-economic amenities (ports, universities)
= problem: no objective recording of who gets/has what -> politicians can exploit this to cliam they are marginalized
elite clientelism and cooptation:
- APC and PCP big alliances not programmatic, they survive bc they share the cake: they share contracts
- federal character to take care of all citizens, but in practice political elites take a lot of money
- public procurement
- corruption equally distributed: diff regions have fair share of chairs of commitees, so fair access to the money
democratizing primaries?
“godfather” = most corrupt rich elite that sponsors candidates (pays for ticket for candidacy), once you are in power you need to pay them back
Nigeria has primaries (like in the US)
benefits = best candidate emerges, most charismatic, most binding candidate, voter bonus bc commitment to democracy
in practice = highest-bidder exercise
national conventions with delegates, candidates go from hotel room to hotel room trying to get them to vote for them
anti-corruption ploy
use corruption to sanction others and get rid of political enemies (like in China and Russia)
right before elections Bohari: replaced all the notes (all politicians had already gathered nira notes to hand out during eletions) and only the new ones would count
= incubant manipulation: gov still has acces to money, opposition does not
corruption charges often forgiven by the president = difficult sanctioning of corruption
-> anti-corruption ploys not as successful as in China and Russia: shifting oligarchic alliances
cooptation non-state actors
labour unions = strong civil society orgainzation: strong mobilization power (bc public sector is quite large), crosscutting cleavage
attempt to remove the fuel subsidy (-> increase prices) = protests in which labor union played big role (-> politicians sensed it was a threat)
also: 1999 labor union important in democratization
since 2012 attempts to coopt the labor union: former party chairman labour union was incorporated in the APC (access to spoils of the regime)
BUT: also repression: new chairman labour union has been arrested (to install fear bc fuel subsidy is under discussion again)
NURWT: national union of road transport workers = strong civil society organization closely tied to the state
- young people work in the transport sector, in the motor parks
- they commit political violence and get money for it (motor park touts)
the case + democratization
Nigeria = much ethnic issues -> electoral engineering = corporate power sharing
- in contrast with SA bc there is liberal power sharing + unitary state
no national identity has been established, despite corporate power sharing people feel marginalized and underrepresented
federalism does not seem to appease (like it does in Germany and the US)
regional powerhouse: major player in ECOWAS + contribution to peace building in west Africa
- Boko Haram conflict tarnishes the image of Nigerian military strength
journey to democracy = difficult
1960 independence -> small increase V-dem
1966 -> military rule
second republic = attempt to return to democracy but with diff constitution for power sharing
third republic = 1993, never actually came into being
- Nigeria a bit late in the third wave democracy, late bloomer with end military rule in 1990 rather than around 1993
why? bc it was big oil exporter -> less democratic pressures from international actors
party politics = valence issues + clientelism
corruption associated with stability: diff ethnic groups all benefit from corruption, that is what gives it stability
36 states (often informally grouped in 6 zones) + one federal territory: Abuja
main ethnic groups + Nigerian nationality?
+ cleavages
Nigerian nation? from the beginning the diff ethnic groups had no trust it would stay together
name Nigeria = invented by British journalist
ethnic diversity = controversial how many ethnicities there are + if we should categorize people in them (its what the colonizers did)
major groups =
- north west = Hausa-Fulani
- south west = Yoruba
- south east = Igbo
overlapping cleavages = ethnic + religious = horizontal inequality
- religious: north is Islam, south is christian
*in the past at least in the south not really important: Yoruba diff religions + intermarriages BUT now cleavage is getting bigger
several states have Sharia law -> discussion if they are radicalized Islam -> answer is no, people are just fed up with corruption and injustice normal judicial system, thought maybe sharia law would be more just, in practice it is also corrupt
historical development - constructing Nigeria
Nigeria is constructed by the British who wanted to move more inland in the 19th century
starting in 1861
- 1861 = treaty of Cession= traditional ruler of Lagos island gives up right to Lagos (was pressured by the British)
- after this the British moved more and more land inwards to the South and the North, established two protectorates
- Governor Lugard -> 1918 Amalgamation of Northern and Sourthern Protectorates (= joining them together for efficiency)
article main findings + prebendalism
membership of lucrative committees is positively associated to the nr of bills and motions sponsored + these legislative initiatives are self-serving but also strengthen the accountability and rule of law
prebendalism = intra-elite patronage
- often seen as antithetical to democracy
- elites get political positions with understanding that that will allow them to use public money for own benefit
- much seen in Nigeria’s national assembly: lawmakers cooptate/bribe/extort public servants to inflate the budget and be awarded with public contracts
access to state revenue: National Assembly committee system with diff commitees that are to diff extents fruitful
prebendalism + high salaries + allowances -> less trust federal gov
BUT: more independent from the president
article - power national assembly
- can overrule president with 2/3 majority to pass a bill
- can’t be dismissed by the president +
- senate president and his deputy and deputy speaker elected by members themselves
- chambers set up own standing orders
since 2011 constitutional amendment financial autonomy
large salaries and allowances -> large legislative independence
Niger delta conflict
Protest minoriities in the region that saw major companies exploiting while there was mass polution and thus deaths (shell e.g. Inflicted, now has to repay for damages (oil spilling -> deaths))
1990s increasing protest against oil extortion (can be seen as similar to Xinjiang region in China were national gov also exploits from a group that feels culturally distinct)
-> diff military groups attacking the state + oil pipe lines -> eco damage -> repression didn’t work (guerilla militants) -> cooptation
1. Derevition principle: 13% profit goes to the population (but mostly to the elites)
a. People find this not enough: 13% derivation means 87% deprivation
2. Neverending presidential amnesty programme: if you are a militant and stop, we will pardon you, will give you a scholarship
Conflict now seems over, but if neverending presidential amnesty program ends, it will return again
- Negative dynamics Similar to external power sharing: incentivices other rebel groups to also commit violence -> bc then you get benefits from the state
Fuel subsidy politics
Can’t be implemented in a clientelistic way
Nigeria has to import refined patroleum = to expensive for lcoal population - > gov subsidies it -> massive debts
Economics: get rid of the fuel subsidy, in the end the rich profit from it
Best thing to do = cut the fuel subsidy and direct the money to poor families BUT no one beliefs that that will actually happen: think it will only cater to specific ethnic groups and supporters of specific parties
