Motivated reasoning - Module 6 Flashcards
What is the representativeness heuristic?
The extent to which something resembles something else influences the probability that people perceive they are linked
What is the availability heuristic?
The ease of which something can be brought to mine influences the perceived probability of the event occurring
What is the anchoring and adjustment heuristic?
People make estimates from a starting value and adjust that value to yield the final answer
What is motivated reasoning?
When decision making is influenced by motives, wants and desires
What is the self serving bias?
Successes are due to me, failures are due to external factors
What is the attribution bias?
There are reasons/excuses why I do something, when someone else does it it’s because of some personal factor about them
What is the confirmatory bias?
Tend to overweight information that supports what I already believe about a positive outcome
What is the overconfidence bias?
Self explanatory. Setting definition of success according to what suits current circumstance.
How to characterise self-deception
Two selves, one trying to influence the beliefs of the other
What is the Condorcet paradox?
That overall group beliefs about likelihood of events can be inconsistent/intransitive
What is shared information bias?
If only consider what each individual observes, can lead to incorrect beliefs about overall information
How to avoid group biases?
Aggregate information, not beliefs
What is groupthink?
Preserving the group spirit at the cost of avoiding critical thinking
What role can someone play to help avoid biases?
Devil’s advocate
How to help deal with own biases?
Use system 2 thinking, avoid time pressure
Use analogical reasoning
Adopt the outsider lens
