mortality Flashcards
2 things Population growth is caused by
- Increased fertility rates (women have more babies in their lifetime)
- Lower Death Rates (improved food supply, medical care, etc.)
what is mortality
the number and/or rate of deaths in a given time or place
- Alive vs. Dead. (a binary)
what is the Change to mortality rates the basis for
the theory of the Epidemiological Transition
what is morbidity
state of being diseased or unhealthy - the incidence of ill health in a population
- How healthy. (a scale, maybe 1-10?)
what is lifespan
The highest age to which a human can live
- Not enough theory for how long we COULD live so we go with how long we HAVE lived
what is longetivity
Lifespan is a maximum, Longevity = the realistic average or Life expectancy derived as an average from many lives -‘The statistically average
length of life
- Varies from place to place and time to time
- Influenced by Nature (genetic) and Nurture (social) factors
whats the idealised influence of Age Specific Mortality Rates on Longevity
“Bathtub” Curve - applies only to Probability of Dying
- infant mortality, normal life, end of life old age
whats the reality influence of Age Specific Mortality Rates on Longevity
- infant morality
- goes up in 20s - more risk-taking
- continues going up after that as you get older
what is the Survivorship Curves
The Inverse of the Death Curve
- The older you get, the more likely you are to die - leads to a “rectangularization” of the curve
4 factors that control death rate
- genetic factors
- Social and Economic Infrastructure Factors - how much control we exercise over nature e.g. water purification, vaccinations, rodent control
- lifestyle factors - how much control we exercise over ourselves e.g. smoking, alcohol, diet
- Other ‘Psychological Factors’ e.g. Copycat murder-suicides, Good initials W.I.N., milestones like birthdays
global average life expectancy
71yrs
what is the Crude Death Rate (or “Mortality Rate”)
the number of deaths divided by the population
- generally not good to use e.g. younger pops will show lower CDR
what is Infant Mortality
number of deaths to infants divided by the number of live births
- used as a determining the “development” level of a country - would be easily preventable with a little money and/or education
- has a BIG impact on life expectancy calculations
what is Age-Specific Death Rate (ASDR)
a measure of the mortality at each age and sex for a given population (very similar to an ASFR)
what is life expectancy
- Total Years lived. 𝑒𝑒𝑥𝑥 + age
- the expectation of life at birth derived from a life table and generally denoted as 𝑒𝑒𝑥𝑥 - gives each age its own expectancy
- It is the average age at death for a hypothetical group of people born in a particular year and being subjected to the risks of death experienced by people of all ages that year
- surviving certain stages in life e.g. infant mortality increases life expectancy later (survival causes survival)
- can be used on any depreciating asset that starts with a fixed amount e.g. available land
3 main causes of death
- Contagious Diseases (infectious & parasitic)
- Degenerative Diseases & Aging
- Killed by products of the social & Economic Environment
explain Contagious Diseases (infectious & parasitic) as a cause of death
e.g Malaria, HIV/AIDS, small pox, malaria
- viral and bacterial diseases
- Vaccinations now protect most of the population in the developed world
explain Degenerative Diseases & Aging as a cause of death
- now the major cause of death in developed countries
- major chronic disease e.g. cancer, stroke, heart disease
- These are characterized by uncertain etiology (cause), multiple risk factors, long latency, prolonged course of illness, non- contagious origin, functional impairment, and incurability
explain Killed by products of the social & Economic Environment as a cause of death
- Accidents e.g. vehicle / suicide (vary by country, men more succesful) / homicide (men > women)
- Russia is #1 with 209 deaths due to violent mortality
5 big time death events
- The Black Plague
- Influenza and World War 1
- The Global AIDS epidemic
- The 2005 Indonesian Tsunami
- Cultural Revolution in China
whats the Epidemiological Transition
- theory that explains the shift in mortality patterns and the causes of death as societies develop economically and socially
- 100 years ago death rates were high, and early death was common due to contagious diseases like plague
4 stages of mortality through ages
- pre-modern mortality
- roman era to industrial revolution
- industrial revolution to WWII
- WWII to present
mortality in the pre-modern age
- Agriculture probably raised both birth & death rates
- Life expectancy = 20-30 years - ½ died before age 5
mortality in roman era to industrial revolution
- Life expectancy in Roman era = 25 years - by middle ages it had risen to over 30 years
- ‘Columbian Exchange’ of Disease (drove Life Expectancy down in Latin America)
mortality in industrial revolution to WWII
- End of Plague = beginning of Industrial Revolution
- Life expectancy goes up
- Increased Life expectancy due to diet & hygiene
mortality in WWII to present
- Developed countries created mortality decline
- Undeveloped countries adopted mortality decline
What is the ‘path’ to lower mortality in modern societies
- Improved Infant Mortality
- Improved Nutrition & Water Supply
- Improved Education and Social Infrastructure
- Higher Status for Women
what does Status up societies refer to
“Poor” countries with Higher than expected Life Expectancy (Sri Lanka, Costa Rica, Kerala)
what does Status down societies refer to
“Rich” countries with Lower than expected life expectancy (Iran, Saudi Arabia, Oman)
4 insights to mortality
- The older you get, the more likely you are to die - “rectangularization” of the survival curve
- Life expectancy exceeds “expert” forecasts
- Life expectancy has been increasing - 71-102yrs
- Continued progress of higher life expectancy e.g. eo for women forecast in select countries
5 differentials in mortality
- Occupation
- Income and education
- Race and ethnicity
- Material status
- sex
explain how occupation is a differential in mortality
e.g. fishers, timber cutting, pilots
- dangerous jobs lead to death
- The Higher your salary the Lower your death rate
explain how Income and education is a differential in mortality
- Higher Income = Lower Death Rate
- Theoretically, a better education allows one to avoid dangerous “high risk” situations
explain how Race and ethnicity is a differential in mortality
- In most of the world’s countries, ethnic minorities have higher death rates than majorities
- Some is due to discrimination, which causes lower socio-economic status
explain how Material status is a differential in mortality
- Married people live longer than non-married people:
-Explanation 1( Selective): Sickly looking people less likely to marry
-Explanation II (Protective): Marriage is good for you - married men have lower suicide rates than non-married men
- Married women have higher income than unmarried women (socioeconomically, this is confounding)
explain how Sex is a differential in mortality
Women live longer than men - Women are probably biologically superior
- Gap smaller or non-existent in countries with
low status of women
what is maternal mortality
pregnancy and childbirth was the number one
cause of death for young women in North America
- generally corresponds with levels of economic development
what is The Demographic Dividend
Rapid and sustainable economic growth as consequence of a demographic transition from high fertility and high mortality to low fertility and low mortality - creates a larger working-age population (ages 20-60)
The Demographic Dividend and Africa
Africa’s labor force is expanding
- Africa continues to have one of the highest
population growth rates globally - Indicating a
rapid transition towards lower mortality - represents a HUGE economic growth potential for the continent
