Module 2: Thinking in Systems Flashcards
system (2)
- sets of things interconnected to produce their own pattern of behaviours over time
- interconnected set of elements that is coherently organized in some way to achieve sometimes
system: structure
- components/elements and their composition
system: behaviours
- inputs, processes, outputs, feedback, controls
system: interconnectivity
- various parts of a system have functional and structural relationships to each other
system: functions
- the role or outcome of the system
system: hierarchy
- nested subsystems interacting to comprise the larger system
systems: differentiation
- specialization of functions to subsystems
system: emergent properties
- new properties arising in systems as a result of the interactions at an elemental level; more complex behaviours arising out of the collective
analysis (2)
- breaking something apart and looking at the pieces individually to gain an understanding of a system
- ideal for a system with low interconnectivity and interdependency
synthesis (2)
- putting ideas and information together to see an overall pattern about how things come together and their connectivity to understand a system
- ideal for systems with high interconnectivity and interdependency
reductionism
- process of breaking down or reducing systems to their constituent parts, and describing the systems as a sum of these parts
- inherently de-promotes relationships between the elements
reductionism steps (3)
- break down into constituent elements
- analyze individual elements in isolation
- recombine components into original system and describe systems based on these components
synthesis steps (4)
- identify system that our object is apart of
- try to gain broad outline of how system functions
- understand how the parts are interconnected and the arrangement of functionality
- define relationships our object is embedded in and place/function within the whole
what is the value of systems thinking (2)
- to avoid unintended consequences when making changes to the system behaviour
- systems thinking allows us to understand/consider the whole picture and all interconnected parts so that we can avoid unintended consequences
small change in behaviour, few unintended consequences
tweaks
huge change in behaviour, few unintended consequences
high leverage; desired
small change in behaviour, many unintended consequences
disaster; want to avoid
huge change in behaviour, many unintended consequences
fire-fighting
what does systems thinking allow us to do (2)
- move away from reductionist way of separating out a problem into individual components that act in isolation
- move toward seeing the vast array of components that work together to enable a system to behave in a particular way
tools of a systems thinker: instead of disconnection
- interconnectedness
tools of a systems thinker: instead of linear
- circular
tools of a systems thinker: instead of silos
- emergence
tools of a systems thinker: instead of parts
whole
tools of a systems thinker: instead of analysis
- synthesis
tools of a systems thinker: instead of isolation
- relationships
stock (3)
- a amount, number, or quantity of something residing in some particular place in the system at a particular time
- the combined history of inflow and outflow at any moment
- many stocks are tangible, but they can be intangibles (knowledge, willpower, etc)
flows (2)
- things that flow in, out, and through the system
- inflows and outflows which always have an element of time
inflow
- the RATE at which things enter the system
outflow
- the RATE at which things exit the system
what is the rate at which the stock changes
- the difference between the inflow and the outflow
what is the rate at which the stock changes if the inflow = outflow (2)
- there is no change in the stock over time (rate = 0)
- the system is at equilibrium
what is the rate at which the stock changes if the inflow =/= outflow
- the stock will change over time ( rate =/= 0)
how do systems behave
- they want to remain in stead state (equilibrium stock), but can be “pushed” out of equilibrium by perturbations that initiate feedback
stabilizing/balancing/negative feedback
- counteracts the push and restores the system to a stable state
amplifying/reinforcing/positive feedback
- amplifies the push and destabilizes the system to new states
what feedback counteracts the push and restores the system to a stable state
- stabilizing, negative, balancing
what feedback amplifies the push and destabilizes the system to new states
- amplifying, positive, reinforcing
why is the stock the foundation of systems (2)
- elements of the system that you can see, feel, count, or measure at any given time
- stocks change over time through the actions of flow
what are the characteristics of a stabilizing feedback loop (4)
- goal-seeking or stability-seeking
- keeps the stock within a given value or range
- opposes whatever directions of change is imposed on the system
- when these feedbacks dominate, it is likely a closed systems
what are the characteristics of amplifying feedback loops (4)
- generate more input to a stock the more that is already there
- enhances whatever direction of change is imposed on it
- when these feedbacks dominate, it is likely an open system
- behaviour evident over long periods of time, making it difficult to predict due to lags in the system
what assumptions can be made about one-stock systems (3)
- if the sum of the inflows exceed the sum of the outflows, the level of the stock will rise
- is the sum of the outflows exceed the sum of the inflows, the level of the stock will fall
- if the sum of the outflows equal the sum of the inflows, the stock level will not change; it well be held at dynamic equilibrium at whatever level it was when the flows became equal
when can dominance occur
- when a system features competing feedback loops (both a stabilizing and amplifying loop)
when does dominance occur
- when one feedback loop dominates the other
why can we only predict future behaviour
- the system experiences delays; since there will be a lag in response of the system to any change
- changing the length of the delay may or may not make a large change in the behaviour of the system
two-stock systems
- systems with two stocks are common as any real entity is always surrounded by and exchanging things with its environment
- systems rarely occur in isolation of other systems
what are the characteristics of a well-ordered system (3)
- resilience
- self-organization
- hierarchy
resilience (4)
- ability to bounce or spring back after being pressed/stretched
- measure of a system’s ability to survive and persist within a variable environment
- requires may feedback loops that work to restore a system in different ways even after a large perturbation
- redundancy
example of a resilient system
proximity; situating oneself near all needed amenities and resources will allow the system to be resilient toward changing transportation energy costs (gas, electricity, bus fare, etc)
why is resilience and self-organization often sacrificed for short-term stability or productivity
- resilience may not be obvious without a whole-system view where all factors and possible perturbations could be considered (more long-term planning)
what does awareness of resilience allow for
- allows for us to think about ways to persevere or enhance the restorative powers of a system
self-organization (3)
- the ability to learn, diversify, complexity, or evolve
- the capacity of a system to make its own structures more complex
- can arise from simple rules
what does self-organization produce
- heterogeneity and unpredictability, but requires freedom and experimentation
hierarchy (5)
- the emergence of systems within systems
- self-regulating subsystems serve the larger system, while the larger system coordinates and enhances the functioning of the subsystem
- provides stability, resilience, and efficiency
- relationships within are denser and stronger than relationships between
- evolve from lowest level up
what occurs when hierarchies break down
- split along their subsystem boundaries
sub-optimization and example (2)
- when a subsystem’s goals dominate at the expense of the total system’s goals
- cancer/tumour cells, certain department only working for their own gain and not the gain of the company
why do systems surprise us: models (3)
- everything we think we know about the world is just a model; nothing we represent will ever be the REAL world
- our models usually have strong congruence with the world, but they still fall short of representing the world fully
- we draw illogical conclusions from accurate assumptions or logical conclusions from inaccurate assumptions
why do systems surprise us: series of events (2)
- behaviour of a system is its performance over time (growth, stagnation, decline, oscillation, randomness, evolution)
- we often view the world as a series of events, but we should see how events accumulate into dynamic patterns of behaviours
why do systems surprise us: linearity (2)
- we have linear thinking minds where we view relationships to have constant properties
- in actuality, systems have nonlinear relationships, where the cause does not produce proportional effects and can change the relative strengths of feedback loops to flip system behaviours
example of a non-linear relationship
- the value of a motorcycle and the amount of time the motorcycle is owned
why do systems surprise us: separate systems (3)
- there are no separate systems because the world is a continuum
- where to draw boundaries depends on the purpose of the discussion, for clarity and sanity
- the right boundary for a problem is often interdisciplinary
why do systems surprise us: limits
- at any time the input that is most important to a system is the one that is most limiting
- any physical entity with multiple inputs and outputs is surrounded by limits, which it interacts with and affects as it develops
- the growing entity and its limited environment together form a co-evolving dynamic situation
think about the evolution of the human species and how its limits have changed over time
- the introduction of fossil fuels allowed for the mechanization of agriculture and the ability to increase food supply to feed more humans; the limit on food was surpassed to support a higher population of people
why do systems surprise us: growth
- for any physical entity in a finite environment, perpetual growth is impossible due to self-imposed or system-imposed limits
why do systems surprise us: delays
- things take longer than we expect as delays are common and everywhere in systems
- delays result in overshoots, oscillations, and collapses
what delays can you identify that have resulted in the human population overshoot? (2)
- enough energy and resources to sustain agriculture
- enough space for waste, biodiversity, and humans
what is essential when there are long delays in feedback loops
- foresight
bounded rationality (3)
when people make reasonable decisions based on information they have, but:
- the information known is not perfect, especially at distant parts of the system
- we don’t interpret the information correctly and misperceive risk
- we focus on current events rather than learning from past (patterns of behaviour) or paying attention to long-term behaviour
what systems are structures to function well despite bounded rationality (2)
- the right feedback gets to the right place at the right time
- self-regulatory systems
the bounded rationality of each actor in a system may/may not lead to decisions that further the welfare of the system as a whole, if they do not:
- putting new actors in the same system will not improve the system’s performance
- there was be a redesign of the system to improve the information, incentives, disincentives, goals, stresses, and constrains that have an effect on specific actors
how do you know you’re looking at a system (4)
- parts must be identifiable
- parts must affect each other
- together, the parts produce and effect that is different from the effect of each part on its own
- the behaviour/effect persist in a variety of circumstances over time
