MDM Flashcards
What is the Y-axis on a receiver operating curve?
True positive rate = sensitivity
What is negative predictive value?
If the test result is negative, the chance the patient does not have disease
Negative predictive value = TN / (TN+FN)
Draw a 2x2 table for a diagnostic study
What is the formula for negative likelihood ratio?
LR- = P(negative result in diseased person) / P(negative result in non-diseased person)
= false negative rate / true negative rate
= [FN/(TP+FN)] / [TN/(FP+TN)]
= (1 – sensitivity) / specificity
Increased sensitivity is related to [direction, sign] predictive value
Increased sensitivity is related to increased negative predictive value
When is specificity prioritized in diagnostic testing?
When you need a very accurate diagnosis
- Treatment is very morbid (e.g. chemo)
- Label can be harmful (e.g. HIV)
- Later in the work up
Describe the important points about sensitivity
Given the presence of disease, the probability that a test will be positive
Minimize false negatives
SNOUT - sensitivity, rule out
Most useful when test is negative
Increased negative predictive value
Screening
Sensitivity = TP / (TP+FN)
(use left column)
What is the likelihood ratio?
What advantages does it have over sensitivity and specificity?
What is it used to calculate?
What is the formula for likelihood ratio?
Another way to describe the performance of a test
Can be used across a spectrum of test
Used to calculate post-test probability of a disease
LR = P(result in diseased person) / P(result in non-diseased person)
= true rate / false rate
Negative LR is influenced by ______
Sensitivity
(important to rule out disease)
What is a completely unhelpful LR?
1
Is specificity used to rule in or out?
SPIN - specificity, rule in
What is serial testing?
When is it used?
Do tests in sequence
Only do next test if first one is positive, so all tests done must be positive to label w/ diagnosis
- Rapid assessment not needed
- Tests are expensive or risky
- Want to maximize specificity
What is the X-axis on a receiver operating curve?
False positive rate = 1 – specificity
What is an index test?
Why is it used?
The test that we are studying
Always want easier and cheaper tests that give same info as gold standard
What is negative post-test probability?
If patient has a negative test result, the probability the disease is still present but the test missed it
Negative post-test probability = FN / (TN+FN)
What is the best positive LR?
Infinity
What are three important uses of the receiver operating curve?
- Comparing the performance of two or more tests
- Determining the best cutoff value of a test to determine disease versus no disease
- Understanding how good a test is overall (area under the curve)
When is parallel testing used?
- Rapid assessment necessary
- Patient cannot return easily
- Costs of tests relatively low
- Want to maximizine sensitivity
What is spectrum bias?
Performance of diagnostic test varies because the people tested are not part of a clinically relevant population
Occurs if a study population does not represent a true diagnostic dilemma
Affects external validity
Is sensitivity more useful for screening or confirming a diagnosis?
Sensitivity is useful for screening
Describe the important points about specificity
Given the absence of disease, the probability that a test will be negative
Minimize false positives
SPIN - specificity, rule in
Most useful when test is positive
Increased positive predictive valuie
Confirming a diagnosis
Specificity = TN / (FP+TN)
(use right column)
What is the best negative LR?
0
What three things do you need to calculate post-test probability?
- Sensitivity of the test
- Specificity of the test
- Pre-test probability (prevalence) of disease
When would you want a more specific test?
When you do not want to falsely label someone
- Late in diagnostic workup
- When false positives can harm patient (label is harmful, treatment is risky)
Why is diagnostic dilemma a criteria for performing a test?
A test is most helpful when it helps reduce uncertainty
Performing a test in a patient whose diagnosis is known is not helpful
Tests are most helpful when they distinguish between 2+ likely diagnoses
What is a useless test on a receiver operating curve?
Area under curve = 0.5
What is a perfect test on a receiver operating curve?
Area under curve = 1
What is a gold standard test?
A test generally accepted to be definitive in diagnosis of disease, reference test
What is a receiver operating curve?
Visual representation of the relationship between sensitivity and specificity
Slope = positive LR
X-axis: false positive rate = 1 – specificity
Y-axis: true positive rate: sensitivity
What is the formula for specificity?
Specificity = TN / (FP+TN)
Use right column
If prevalence increases, what happens to positive and negative predictive value?
If prevalence (pre-test probability) increases:
Positiive predictive value increases
Negative predictive value decreases
What is post-test probability?
Given a certain test result, what is the probability of disease?
How do you convert pre-test probability to post-test probability?
- Pre-test probability to pre-test odds using odds = probability / (1 – probability)
- Pre-test odds to post-test odds using pre-test odds x LR = post-test odds
- Post-test odds to post-test probability using probability = odds / (1 + odds)
When would you want a more sensitive test?
When you cannot miss anyone with the disease
- Dangerous, treatable illness
- Screening
- Early in workup when several diagnoses are being considered
Differentiate sensitivity/specificity from predictive value
- Sensitivity and specificity are characteristics of the test itself
- Predictive value tells us how the test will perform in the population
What is the formula for positive likelihood ratio?
LR+ = P(positive result in diseased person) / P( positive result in non-diseased person)
= true positive rate / false positive rate
= [TP/(TP+FN)] / [FP/(FP+TN)]
= sensitivity / (1 – specificity)
Why do we perform diagnostic tests?
Reduce uncertainty about the true condition of the patient
- Distinguish between disease and no disease
- Provide prognostic information
- Determine response to therapy
- Provide reassurance
How can you convert odds into probability?
Probability = odds / (1 + odds)
In calculating a likelihood ratio, sensitivity is in the _____ and specificity is in the _____
In calculating LR,
- sensitivity is in the numerator
- specificity is in the denominator
What is specificity?
How do you calculate specificity?
Given the absence of disease, the probability that a test will be negative
Specificity = TN / (FP+TN)
(use right column)
Say you use a serial testing strategy with three tests. How can you easily calculate the post-test odds?
Pre-test odds x LR1 x LR2 x LR3 = Post-test odds
When is serial testing used?
- Rapid assessment not needed
- Tests are expensive or risky
- Want to maximize specificity
Draw a 2x2 table with formulas for positive and negative likelihood ratio
Draw a 2x2 table with formulas for positive and negative predictive value and positive and negative post-test probability
When are sensitive tests most useful?
When they are negative
(rule out the disease in question)
What is positive post-test probability?
If patient has a positive test result, the probability a disease is present
Positive post-test probability = TP / (TP+FP)
When are specific tests most useful?
When they are positive and rule in the disease in question
What is the relationship between positive predictive value and positive post-test probability?
Positive predictive value = positive post-test probability = TP / (TP+FP)
(use top row)
What is the formula for sensitivity?
Sensitivity = TP / (TP+FN)
Use left column
What is the relationship between negative post-test probability and negative predictive value?
Negative post-test probability = 1 – negative predictive value
(use bottom row)
What is the relationship between pre-test odds, LR, and post-test odds?
Pre-test odds x LR = Post-test Odds
What is the formula for positive post-test probability?
Positive post-test probability = TP / (TP+FP)
(use top row)
How can you convert probability into odds?
Odds = probability / (1 – probability)
Increased specificity is related to [direction, sign] predictive value
Increased specificity is related to increased positive predictive value
What is the formula for negative post-test probability?
Negative post-test probability = FN / (TN+FN)
(use bottom row)
What is prevalence?
What is the formula for prevalence?
Proportion of individuals in a population who have a given clinical characteristic at a given point in time
At time point X: Prevalence = cases of disease / entire population
Positive LR is influenced by ______
Specificity
(important to rule in diseasea)
What types of bias can be present in a diagnostic study?
- Spectrum bias (affecting external validity)
- Selection bias (test referral bias, in which haveing a positive test makes it more likely that a subject also gets the gold standard test)
- Measurement bias (non-blinding, inaccurate measurements, inaccurate gold standard)
What occurs if all tests are negative in a parallel testing strategy?
False negatives decrease
Sensitivity increases
What is incidence?
What is the formula for incidence?
The number of new cases of disease that accumulate during a specified time period divided by the number of persons in population at risk
From time period A to B: Incidence = new cases of disease / population without disease at time A
Is specificity more useful for screening or confirming a diagnosis?
Specificity is useful for confirming a diagnosis
What is sensitivity?
How do you calculate sensitivity?
Given the presence of disease, the probability that a test will be positive
Sensitivity = TP / (TP+FN)
(use left column)
Is sensitivity used to rule in or out?
SNOUT - sensitivity, rule out
Which tests do participants in a diagnosis study receive?
Every patients gets both index test and gold standard test
What is positive predictive value?
If test result is positive, the chances the patient has the disease
Positive predictive value = TP / (TP+FP)
What do you look at to see if a test is a good test on an ROC?
Area under the curve
(the higher the AUC, the better the test)
What is parallel testing?
When is it used?
Do all tests at the same time
Need only one positive to label w/ diagnosis
- Rapid assessment necessary
- Patient cannot return easily
- Costs of tests relatively low
- Want to maximizine sensitivity
What occurs with each subsequent positive result in a serial testing strategy?
False positives decrease
Specificity increases
When is sensitivity prioritized in diagnostic testing?
When you cannot miss a diagnosis
- Screening
- Early in the work up
- Terrible but treatable diseases (TB, syphillis, etc)
