Mathematical modelling Flashcards
What is a mathematical model?
Series of equations that describe key processes in a system affected by an infectious disease
What are the 2 types of mathematical model?
Compartmental - population divided into compartments/classes
Mechanistic - consists of mechanisms/processes
What are disease-related processes?
Transmission
Pathogen-induced mortality
Recovery
What are disease free processes?
Birth
Natural mortality
What do simple models assume. What is this?
Homogenous mixing
Each individual has an equal chance of contacting any other individual in the population
What is transmission rate?
Change in susceptible population of change in time
dS/dt
What is rate of change?
Change of infected of change in time
dI/dt
What is the recovery rate
Change in recovered over change in time
What is the reproduction number?
Average number of secondary cases that each individual case infects if conditions remain as they were
What is the basic reproductive number?
Number of new cases (secondary infections) caused by single infectious individual (primary infection) in a totally susceptible population
What are the advantages of mathematical models?
Cost little
No impact on humans/animals during testing
What are the disadvantages of mathematical models?
Models aren’t equal to reality
Predictions come with level of uncertainty
