MASTER Flashcards
4 Basic Premises of Traditional Finance
- Investors are rational
- Markets are efficient
- Mean-Variance Portfolio Theory Governs
- Returns are Determined by risk
Behavioral Finance Assumptions
- Investors are “normal” (wants/desires/bias) - prone to cognitive mistakes
- Markets are NOT efficient
- The Behavioral Portfolio Theory Governs
- Risk alone does NOT determine returns
Affect Heuristic
judging something whether good OR bad
example = do they like/dislike some company based on NON-financial issues
Anchoring
attaching/anchoring one’s thoughts to a reference point even though there may be no logical relevance or is not pertinent to the issue in question
also known as conservatism OR belief perseverance
Availability Heuristic
relies on knowledge readily available in memory
may cause investors to overweight recent events or patterns while paying little attention to longer term trends
Bounded Rationality
rationality limited by available info, tractability of decision problem, cognitive limitations of their minds, & time available to make decision
decision makers act as “satisficers” seeking a satisfactory solution rather than an optimal one
one consequence = having additional info does NOT lead to an improvement in decision making d/t inability of investors to consider significant amounts of info
Confirmation Bias
“you do not get a second chance at a first impression”
people tend to filter info & focus on info supporting their opinions
Cognitive Dissonance
tendency to misinterpret info that is contrary to an existing opinion or only pay attention to the info that supports an existing opinion
Disposition Effect
also known as “Regret Avoidance” or “faulty framing”
investors do NOT mark stocks to market prices
investors create mental accounts when they purchase stocks & continue to mark their value to purchase prices even after market prices have changed
Familiarity Bias
investors tend to overestimate/underestimate the risk of investments in which they are unfamiliar/familiar with
example = only invested in employer’s stock because that’s what you know
Gambler’s Fallacy
investors often have incorrect understanding of probabilities which can lead to faulty predictions
investors may sell stock when it has been successful in consecutive trading sessions because they may NOT believe the stock is going to continue its upward trend
Herding
people tend to follow the masses or the “herd”
Hindsight Bias
looking back after the fact is known & assuming they can predict the future as readily as they can explain the past
Illusion of Control Bias
people overestimate their ability to control events
example = driving instead of flying even though much more likely to have a car accident vs plane accident because you are driving
Overconfidence Bias
investor mostly listens to themselves
mostly rely on skills/capabilities to do homework & make own decisions
causes many investors to OVERSTATE risk tolerance
Overreaction Bias
common emotion towards the receipt of news or information
Prospect Theory
value gains/losses differently, base decisions on perceived gains rather than perceived losses
investors are “loss averse” & have a symmetric attitude to gains & losses getting less utility from gaining
explains why investors may avoid higher risk investments even w/ strong risk adjusted returns
explains why they over insure against risks through low deductibles
Recency Bias
giving too much weight to recent observations or stimuli
Self-Attribution Bias
give yourself credit for all good outcomes
any bad outcomes d/t outside factors
Similarity Heuristic
used when a decision/judgment is made when an apparently similar situation occurs even though the situations may have very different outcomes
Herd Mentality
process of buying what & when others are
buying & selling
herd mentality LEADS TO buying HIGH & selling LOW
Naive Diversification
also known as 1/n diversification
equal amounts invested in every option available, common in 401(k) & other ER retirement plans
Representativeness
thinking that a good company is a good investment w/out regard to an analysis of the investment
Loss Aversion
investors prefer avoiding losses more than experiencing gains
unwillingness to sell a losing investment in hopes it will turn around
investors feel more pain from losses than enjoying gains
Socialization
process of acquiring values, beliefs, & behaviors that are acceptable &/or expected by society
Social Consciousness
an awareness of & sense of responsibility for problems or injustices that exist w/in society
Multicultural Psychology
recognizes that multiple aspects of identity influence a person’s worldview
both universal & culture specific phenomena should both be considered
What are the 4 main areas of GDP?
consumer spending
government spending
business investing
net imports/exports
Federal Reserve & Congress 3 Main Goals Fiscal Policy
- maintain long term economic growth
- maintain price levels supported by the economy
- maintain full employment
FDIC - Covered vs NOT Covered
COVERED = any deposit payable in US, CDs
NOT COVERED = any deposit payable outside of US, MM MFs, stocks, bonds, mutual funds
Debts NOT Discharged Through Chapter 7 Bankruptcy
3 years of back taxes
alimony/child support
student loans (unless “undue hardship” - jurisdiction issue)
Emergency Fund
3-6 months Nondiscretionary expenses
EF Ratio = Current Assets / Monthly Nondiscretionary Expenses
Current Ratio
measure of client’s ability to meet ST obligations
CR = Current Assets / Current Liabilities
Housing Ratio 1
no more than 28% of monthly gross income
HR1 = Monthly housing costs (P+I+T+I) / Monthly GROSS Income
Principal, Interest, Taxes (property), Homeowners Insurance
Housing Ratio 2
no more than 36% of monthly gross income
HR2 = [Monthly housing costs (P+I+T+I) + all other recurring debt] / Monthly GROSS Income
Principal, Interest, Taxes (property), Homeowners Insurance
Savings Ratio
performance ratio; target 10-12%, 20-25% if starting late age 45-55
*important to include ER contributions to 401k, profit sharing plans etc
SR = Annual Savings (EE + ER contributions) / Annual GROSS Income
Education & Financial Aid - Student Aid Index SAI
Students considered independent if they are….
- over age 23
- have legal dependents other than a spouse
- married
Financial Aid Programs - NEED Based
Federal Pell Grant
Subsidized Stafford Loan
Financial Aid Programs NOT Need Based
Unsubsidized Stafford Loan
PLUS Loan (depends on PARENTS CREDIT)
Risk Management Guidelines
High Severity High Frequency = Avoidance
High Severity Low Frequency = Transfer (Insurance)
Low Severity High Frequency = Retention/Reduction
Low Severity Low Frequency = Retention
Annuity Withdrawals - LIFO vs FIFO
PRIOR to 1982 = FIFO
AFTER 1982 = LIFO
HMO vs PPO
HMO - cheaper, doctor IN-NETWORK ONLY
PPO - more expensive, more flexible doctor access
SIMILARITIES - no paperwork if in network
LTC “Qualified”
Premiums tax deductible & benefits tax FREE:
- NO surrender value
- limited to qualified LTC services
- dividends to reduce premiums OR increase benefits
- meet consumer protection laws
- does NOT pay for expenses covered under Medicare
HO Insurance - BASIC Named Perils
Fire, Vehicles, Lightning, Smoke, Windstorm, Vandalism, Hail, Explosion, Riot, Theft, Aircraft, Volcano
SLW - FVVVHEART (pronounced slow favorite)
VVV-WEATHR-FS
HO Insurance - BROAD Named Perils
Basic Named Perils 1-12 Plus:
Falling objects, Weight of ice/snow/sleet, Accidental overflow of water (NOT flood), Sudden bursting of appliances, Freezing of system/appliance, Damage from electrical current
Basic + FAS-FWD (pronounced fast forward)
Open Peril Policy
protects against ALL perils EXCEPT those perils that are SPECIFICALLY EXCLUDED from policy
Exclusions include - neglect (termite damage), flood, & earthquakes
General Exclusions for ALL HO Policies
- Movement of ground (earthquake/landslide)
- Ordinance/Law (regulations regarding construction/demolition)
- Damage from water (flood, underground water, sewer backup)
- War/Nuclear hazard (including nuclear power plant)
- Power failure (such as power plant failure causing a loss)
- Intentional act (burning down your own house)
- Neglect (must take reasonable means to save property & mitigate loss)
HO-3 Special Form
provides coverage on DWELLING & OTHER STRUCTURES on an OPEN peril basis resulting in coverage against ALL physical loss other than those SPECIFICALLY excluded
personal property is covered on a NAMED peril basis
OASDI & Medicare Tax
OASDI = 6.2% (BOTH EE & ER) up to wage base $168,600
Medicare = 1.45% (both EE & ER) on UNLIMITED amount of wages
Additional Medicare Tax 0.9% (EE) on income excess of $200k single or $250k MFJ UNLIMITED amount of wages
Social Security Early Benefits Reduction & Delays Increase
REDUCED BY:
- 5/9 of 1% each month 1st 3 years
- 5/12 of 1% each month beyond 3 years
3 years early = 20% reduction
4 years early = 25% reduction
5 years early = 30% reduction
DELAYED:
- increases by 8% annual simple interest (2/3 of 1% monthly) each year delayed until age 70
Social Security Definition of Disability
disability expected to last for 12 months or disability will result in your death AND cannot perform the duties of ANY occupation
What does Medicare Part B NOT Cover?
Dental care & Dentures
Cosmetic surgery
Hearing Aids
Eye exams
Routine Physical Exams (per Medicare.gov)