Investments Flashcards
Investment Policy Statement
written document provides general guidelines for investment manager
Includes:
- Objectives (risk & return)
- Constraints (time horizon, taxes, liquidity, legal considerations, unique needs/special circumstances)
does NOT identify specific investments
Holding Period Return HPR
return measure
HPR = (SP - PP +- CFs) / PP = made / paid
Arithmetic Mean
return measure
sum the returns & divide by n
more misleading w/ larger variations in return
Geometric Mean
return measure
compound ROR
will ALWAYS be less than or equal to arithmetic mean
use PV, FV, n, then solve for i
IRR, YTM, YTC, time-weighted return (use the security cash flows), & dollar-weighted return (use the investor’s cash flows) are ALL geometric mean calculations
Weighted Average
return measure
portfolio expected return, portfolio beta, & portfolio duration are all calculated as weighted averages
portfolio standard deviation is NOT a weighted average
Real Rate (inflation adjusted return)
return measure
use w/ education funding & retirement needs questions
Real Rate = [(1+nominal)/(1+inflation) - 1] x 100
Tax Adjusted
return measure
used to determine the after-tax ROR from an investment
After-Tax Return = Pre-Tax Return x (1 - Marginal Rate)
= corporate rate x (1 - tax rate)
Required Return
use CAPM to determine the required ROR on an investment given its systematic risk
Expected Return
use current price & expected future cash flows to calculate the expected return on an investment
RR < expected return = invest (asset undervalued)
RR = expected return = invest
RR < expected return = do NOT invest (asset overvalued)
Actual Return
use w/ Sharpe/Treynor/Jensen to determine risk-adjusted performance
Which measure should you use to evaluate a manager’s performance?
High r^2 = all three measures are reliable
Low r^2 = use Sharpe (bad beta!)
Sharpe Ratio
relative risk measure
excess return divided by total risk (SD)
Treynor Ratio
relative risk measure
excess return divided by systematic risk (beta)
Jensen’s Alpha
absolute risk measure
portfolio return minus CAPM (uses beta)
Information Ratio
ratio of a portfolio’s return in excess of the returns of a benchmark (such as an index) to the standard deviation of those excess returns (tracking error)
the ratio indicates the portfolio manager’s ability to consistently beat the index
the higher the IR the more consistent the manager is in generating excess returns
P/E Ratio
market price of the common stock divided by EPS
= expected price per share / EPS
how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of earnings
growth stocks = high P/E ratios
value stocks = low P/E ratios
earnings are accounting based & thus do NOT reflect cash flow which is central to equity valuation
P/E ratios also tend to be lower during times of higher inflation
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
= (Net Income - Preferred Dividends) / # common shares outstanding
P/CF Ratio
market price of the common stock divided by cash flow
useful ratio for evaluating non-dividend paying firms
P/S Ratio
market price of the common stock divided by sales
useful ratio for evaluating non-dividend paying firms or firms w/ low or negative profits
PEG Ratio
stock’s P/E ratio divided by 3-5 year growth rate in earnings
PEG < 1.0 = stock may be undervalued; P/E ratio less than average growth in earnings
PEG > 1.0 = stock may be overvalued; P/E ratio greater than average growth in earnings
Yield Curve Theories - 3
attempt to explain the shape of the yield curve
- Expectations Theory
- Liquidity Preference Theory
- Market Segmentation Theory
Expectations Theory
expectations of inflation & the effect on future ST interest rates determine shape
could explain normal & inverted curves
Liquidity Preference Theory
investors accept lower yields for ST investments (price for liquidity) & require premiums for longer term maturities
explains only a normal curve
Market Segmentation Theory
the supply/demand for funds in ST & LT markets determine the shape of yield curve
could explain normal & inverted curves
Efficient Market Hypothesis
efficient markets = asset prices reflect all relevant information
3 forms:
1. Weak Form
2. Semi-Strong Form
3. Strong Form
Weak Form - EMH
past prices & volume information reflected in asset prices
investor CANNOT use TECHNICAL analysis to achieve risk-adjusted excess returns
Semi-Strong Form - EMH
all public information is reflected in asset prices; market prices rapidly adjust to new information
investor CANNOT use TECHNICAL or FUNDAMENTAL analysis to achieve risk-adjusted excess returns
Strong Form - EMH
all public & private information is reflected in asset prices
investor CANNOT achieve risk-adjusted excess returns
indexed options only
Standard Deviation of a Portfolio vs Weighted Average of the SD of the assets that comprise the portfolio
the SD of a portfolio will ALWAYS be LESS THAN the weighted average of the SD of the assets that comprise the portfolio
EXCEPTION = if the correlation b/t the assets is perfect positive (+1.0) then the portfolio SD will be EQUAL to the weighted average
Total Risk
Systematic + Unsystematic
measured by SD
Systematic Risk
undiversifiable risk
measured by beta
PRIME
purchasing power risk
reinvestment rate risk
interest rate risk
market risk
exchange rate risk
Unsystematic Risk
diversifiable
ABCDEFG
accounting risk
business risk
country risk
default risk
event/executive risk
financial risk
government/regulatory risk
Measures of Total Risk
standard deviation
variance = SD^2
coefficient of variation = relative risk
semi variance = measures downside risk (measures volatility of returns that fall below the mean)
Normal Distribution
68-95-99
68% of returns +-1 SD
95% of returns +-2 SD
99% of returns +-3 SD
Kurtosis
measure that indicates whether a distribution is more or less peaked than a normal distribution
Leptokurtic = more peaked than normal; have flat tails
Platykurtic = less peaked than normal
Measure of Systematic Risk
beta; appropriate measure of a well diversified portfolio
market beta = 1
beta 1.5 = 50% more volatile than the market
r^2 should be high to ensure reliability of beta r^2 > 0.70
Portfolio Risk
combines the individual risks of the securities along w/ their interactive risk
SD of a two-asset portfolio formula on formula sheet
COV = SDi x SDj x r
Long Call
pays the premium
right to buy stock @ strike price
bullish
maximum loss = premium paid
Short Call
sells the option (receives premium)
obligation to sell underlying asset at strike price
bearish
maximum gain = amount of premium received
Long Put
pays the premium
right to sell at strike price
bearish
maximum loss = premium paid
Short Put
sells the option (receives premium)
obligation to buy at strike price
bullish
maximum gain = premium received
Black Scholes Option Pricing Model
attempts to price a call option
interest rate
volatility
exercise price
stock price
time
*ONLY the EXERCISE PRICE (STRIKE PRICE) is inversely related to the value of a call option
Flat Market
better for option seller (writer, short position)
collects premium & hopes stock price movement will NOT negate the profit
Volatile Market
better for option buyer (if speculating)
must be enough movement in the price of the underlying asset for the option buyer to recover the premium & make a profit
Protective Strategy
short stock
long call
Portfolio Insurance Protective Strategy
long stock
long put
Short Straddle
income strategy
sell call sell put
not expecting volatility
Long Straddle
buy call buy put
expecting volatility unsure of which direction