LIT 6 - Constantinides: the failure of foresight in crisis management Flashcards
Constantinides: What is ‘foresight’ in the context of crisis management, and why can it be complicated?
Foresight is the ability to plan and think systematically about future scenarios to inform decision-making in the present. It can be complicated because dispersed groups have diverse, non-overlapping pieces of information that affect an organisation’s ability to detect, mitigate, and recover from failures.
Constantinides: What was the Mari disaster, and what were its primary consequences?
The Mari disaster was a large explosion at a naval base in Cyprus in July 2011. It resulted in the deaths of 13 people and injuries to 62 others, while also completely destroying the major power plant of the island.
Constantinides: What is the central focus of Barry Turner’s ‘failure of foresight framework’?
Turner’s framework emphasises the process leading up to a disaster, suggesting that while crises might seem unexpected, there are usually precursors or warnings that are identifiable in hindsight. The framework aims to understand how these warnings are missed or not acted upon.
Constantinides: What are the six stages of crisis development proposed by Turner’s failure of foresight framework?
The six stages are:
* Stage I: Notionally normal starting point
* Stage II: Incubation period
* Stage III: Precipitating event
* Stage IV: Onset
* Stage V: Rescue and salvage – first stage adjustment
* Stage VI: Cultural readjustment
Constantinides: According to Turner, what are some of the issues that can contribute to a failure of foresight during the ‘incubation period’ (Stage II)?
Some contributing issues include:
* Rigidities in perception and beliefs
* The decoy problem
* Organisational exclusivity (ignoring outsiders’ warnings)
* Information difficulties (e.g., buried information, passive response)
* The involvement of strangers (untrained individuals)
* Failure to comply with existing regulations
* Minimizing emergent danger (underestimating hazards, conflicting views)
Constantinides: What alternative approach to foresight in crisis management is discussed in the paper as a potential improvement?
The paper discusses an alternative approach built on multi-layered decision-making. This approach aims to distribute the authority of decision-making across all stakeholders within an inclusive system.
Constantinides: What are the three layers of decision-making proposed in this alternative framework?
The three layers are:
* Operational layer (layer of action, linked to operational responsibility)
* Collective-choice layer (layer of authoritative decision-making, linked to political responsibility)
* Constitutional layer (layer where collective-choice mechanisms are designed)
Constantinides: Foresight
The ability to plan and think systematically about future scenarios in order to inform decision-making in the present.
Constantinides: Crisis Management
The systematic attempt to identify and detect possible crises and to take actions and measures to prevent them, contain their effects or disruption, and finally recover.
Constantinides: Normal Accidents Theory
A school of thought in crisis management literature that argues that due to the complexity and tight coupling in organizations, accidents are inevitable or ‘normal’.
Constantinides: High Reliability Organizations Theory
A school of thought in crisis management literature that argues that reliability, resilience and learning can be inscribed in organizations by design through trial and error learning and an active search for improvements.
Constantinides: Variable Disjunction of Information
A complex situation in which a number of parties handling a problem are unable to obtain precisely the same information about the problem, so that many differing interpretations of the situation exist.
Constantinides: Incubation Period (in crisis development)
The stage characterized by the accumulation of an unnoticed set of events that are at odds with the accepted beliefs about the hazards and the norms for their avoidance.
Constantinides: Precipitating Event (in crisis development)
A dramatic event that reveals the inadequacy of the beliefs about risks that developed during the incubation period.
Constantinides: Minimizing Emergent Danger
An underestimating of possible hazards, minimizing emergent danger by insulating emotion against an idea which is accepted cognitively; conflicting views about the danger; changed awareness of danger as attempts to control the situation; and failure to call for help.
Constantinides: Decoy Problem
Instances when some hazard was perceived, but the action taken to deal with the problem distracted attention from the problem that eventually caused the disaster.
Constantinides: Organizational Exclusivity
A situation which causes the organisation to ignore outsiders’ warnings.
Constantinides: Operational Responsibility (in crisis management)
The responsibility of specialized, front-line staff in charge of a crisis management effort to exercise discretion and justify acts of judgment by supplying sound reasons based on scientific evidence.
Constantinides: Political Responsibility (in crisis management)
The responsibility of elected representatives to act on behalf of the electorate body for the public good and to control the decisions and actions of technical-professional personnel in order to protect and promote the public interest.
Constantinides: Multi-layered Decision-making
Many layers of decision-making which are formally independent of each other but which together constitute an interdependent system of relations, aiming to distribute the authority of decision-making across all stakeholders.
Constantinides: Principle of Subsidiarity
The principle that any decision around a crisis event should be decentralised to the lowest possible layer of decision-making with the capacity to conduct it satisfactorily, where decisions only become centralised if they create spillovers affecting other layers.
Constantinides: Constitutional Layer (of decision-making)
The layer where collective-choice mechanisms are designed – i.e. the meta rules of action. Decisions at this level are about decision rules.
Constantinides: Collective-choice Layer (of decision-making)
The layer of authoritative decision-making. Collective decisions are made by officials to determine, enforce, continue or alter actions authorized within institutional arrangements.
Constantinides: Operational Layer (of decision-making)
The layer of action which is directly linked with operational responsibility. Decision-makers at this level can take direct action.
