Lessons from the Montreal Protocol

Question 1

Challenges to International Cooperation

Answer 1

• Problem definition
• Issue complexity (because of the diverse interests, e.g. UK, Japan, Soviet Union)
• Agreeing to a negotiating agenda
• Fairness (who gets help, how do you manage problems with compliance)
• Veto players and public opinion (e.g. chemical industries)
• Institutional design choices (How do you create an agreement? Norms, Rules, Procedures?)
• Uncertainty (Who participates? How complies?)
• Effectiveness & compliance (Goal attainment)

Question 2

Important factors for regime success

Answer 2

• Wide spread coverage
• Addresses effectiveness trilemma: Participation, ambition & compliance
• well developed compliance mechanisms & high degree of transparency
• Counterfactual: Compare actual behavior (or outcomes) to what should have occurred otherwise
• positively affects and makes a contribution to managing or solving the problem(s) or task(s) it was created to address
• Regimes that are ignored or only complied with when convenient can be considered dead letter or paper tiger regimes

Question 3

Political Assessment

Answer 3

• All countries had joint risk of access to chemicals
• Vienna Convention and MP had universal coverage
• Today universal participation
• Increasing support of countries and industries after finding replacement

Question 4

Process Assessment

Answer 4

• Amendments to MP, 14 times
• Lot of flexibility in the treaty
• Adjust ambition upwards
• Phase out days
• Adding support

Question 5

Programmatic Assessment

Answer 5

• brake pedal for stopping ozone depletion
• Ozon-depletion chemicals have been dramatically reduced & the ozone layer is projected to recover by 2066 over the Antarctic, by 2045 over the Arctic and by 2040 for the rest of the world
• Countries have phased out nearly 99% of ODS globally compared to 1986 levels
• Worldwide production of ODSs has plummeted from some 1.2 million tons in 1986 being nearly eliminated in 2016
• Ozon Secretariat: in absence of the MP 50% of the ozone layer would have been depleted by 2035

Question 6

Factors that led to success

Answer 6

• Strong global commitment, 197 parties
• Support from industry -> finding alternatives was cheaper in the end
• Trade sanction against non-parties
• financial support to developing countries (Multilateral Fund)
• Regular meetings, scheduled expert assessments, treaty reviews; fair & legitimate
• Certain degree of freedom during the process
• Flexible design, systems for implementation
• Matter of public health
• Focus on production and consumption of chemical instead of their use in different sectors which made it possible for find alternatives

Question 7

Lessons for PA

Answer 7

• Reducing ODSs is easier than eliminating GHGs
• Climate more difficult, but logic is the same: Fossil fuels must be phased out & and low-carbon substitutes must be found
• PA must emulate the Montreal Protocol’s success & drastically up its ambition over time & accelerate the implementation of measures to achieve those goals
• A lot of different actors and sectors need to get involved
• Multilateral Fund for the implementation of the Montreal Protocol (MLF) can serve as inspiration for Green Climate Fund