Lecture 8: the gray zone

Question 1

czech coup (1948)

Answer 1

The Czech Coup of 1948 saw Czech communists seize power ahead of the May election, facilitated by subversion and control of the Czech Interior Ministry. The threat of Soviet military support weakened opposition, marking a significant shift in European and U.S. views on Soviet expansionism and contributing to the creation of NATO.

Question 2

Salami Tactics

Answer 2

“Join with non-Communists in a coalition and then proceed, by various methods, to take over. … What methods? “Salami tactics” … demanding a little more each day, like cutting up a salami, thin slice after thin slice …Take the banks for instance. First we requested only state control; later, the nationalization of only three big banks. In industry the same way: first we demanded state management of the mines; we gradually expanded this to the biggest machinery plants—and finally we shifted to nationalization.”
Hungarian communist leader Matyos Rakosi

Question 3

Gray zone

Answer 3

“a realm of international relations between peaceful interstate diplomacy, economic activity, and people-to-people contact on one end of the spectrum, and direct armed conflict on the other”

Question 4

Gray Zone/Hybrid War

Answer 4

• Cyberattacks
• Economic coercion
• Propaganda and Political warfare
• Sabotage
• Sponsorship of irregular fighters
• Military threats
• However, many of these same tactics can also be used in traditional war!

Question 4

distinction gray zone and hybrid warfare

Answer 4

Gray Zone is usually limited to state actors whereas Hybrid War associated with both state and non-state actors

Question 5

Conception of Gray Zone as a Strategy

Answer 5

• Pursuit of political objectives through cohesive, integrated campaigns
• Employing mostly non-military or non-kinetic military tools
• i.e. military can assist gray zone efforts via intimidation and threats
• More likely use of paramilitary forces
• Strive to remain under key escalatory or red line thresholds to avoid outright conventional conflict
• Moving gradually to objectives rather than seeking conclusive results in a specific period (there is an assumption it is going to take more time)
• What is the advantage? Cheap? More likely to work?

Question 6

Covert action

Answer 6

“more muscular than diplomacy and less expensive and obtrusive than military force”
1. Propaganda
2. Political Action
3. Paramilitary Action

Activities “meant to influence political, economic or military conditions abroad, where it is intended that the role of the United States Government will not be apparent or acknowledged publicly”

Question 7

Annexation of Crimea (2014)

Answer 7

The key example of grey zone hybrid warfare tactics

• Georgia war (2008) – South Ossetia/Abkhazia precedent
• Russian soldiers arrive in Crimea without any insignia or other identifying information on their uniforms (referred to as ‘little green men’
• Annexation accompanied by cyber-attacks intended to sow confusion and delay response, especially of Western governments
• Many Western governments claimed they were taken by surprise, unable to confirm presence of Russian army
• BUT … was this just an excuse for inaction?
• Would Western governments have responded differently if Russian soldiers’ uniforms contained insignia and identification?

Question 8

If ‘gray zone war’ tactics fail, this leaves 3 options

Answer 8

• Give up aggressive actions and accept status quo
• Continue regardless and hope an opportunity arises to exploit
• Escalate to war