Lecture 6: Nuclear weapons and deterrence Flashcards
The nuclear taboo:
The nuclear taboo exists because of the devastating consequences of nuclear war, which would cause unimaginable destruction and suffering, making it morally unacceptable. Additionally, the fear of escalation and mutual annihilation due to nuclear deterrence has led nations to avoid using nuclear weapons.
nuclear powers
The nuclear powers are countries that possess nuclear weapons. As of now, they include:
- United States
- Russia
- United Kingdom
- France
- China
- India
- Pakistan
- North Korea
- Israel (although it has a policy of ambiguity and has not officially confirmed its nuclear arsenal)
Deterrence
the persuasion of one’s opponent that the costs and/or risks of a given course of action he might take outweigh its benefits
general deterrence
General: conveys a somewhat vague, broad, continuous threat of retaliation for any future attack (e.g. NATO Article 5)
immediate deterrence
threatening retaliation when an attack looms, or as already occurred and the victim wants to deter its continuation
Punishment
“threats to impose costs through retaliation that may be unrelated to the aggression itself. Rather than focusing on the denial of local objectives, it seeks to raise the cost of aggression—even if successful— by threatening other consequences”
Denial
strategies that “seek to deter an action by making it infeasible or unlikely to succeed, thus denying a potential aggressor confidence in attaining its objectives—deploying sufficient local military forces to defeat an invasion, for example” (preventing, interfering)
Extended Deterrence
A strategy where a country deters an attack on its allies by threatening retaliation, not just for itself, but for its allied nations.
Example: NATO deterring Soviet attacks on European countries during the Cold War.
Peripheral Conflict
Conflicts that occur on the periphery of a superpower’s primary interests but still draw their involvement due to strategic or ideological concerns.
Example: The Korean War or Vietnam War during the Cold War.
Credibility in Deterrence
Definition: Deterrence is most effective when the threat of retaliation is seen as credible by the adversary.
Key Elements:
Incomplete information (the adversary may not know how serious you are).
Sufficient interests at stake (the reason to fight must be compelling).
Reputation and cumulative deterrence (previous actions and credibility impact future deterrence).
Madman Theory
Definition: The Madman Theory suggests that a leader might intentionally act irrational or unpredictable to make their adversaries believe they are willing to do anything, including using extreme measures, to achieve their objectives.
–> acting crazy
Example: Nixon during the Vietnam War, aiming to convince North Vietnam that he was unpredictable and capable of escalating the war to extreme levels (including using nuclear weapons) to force them into peace talks
Maximum / ‘overkill
Maximum / ‘overkill’ – Counterforce + Countervalue
minimum
countervalue only
OPLAN 8010-08
Strategic Deterrence and Global Strike
* Directed against six adversaries.
* Probably Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, Syria and 9/11-type WMD scenario
* Half do not have nuclear weapons and four of them are NPT members
* Includes four types of nuclear attack options:
* o Basic Attack Options (BAOs)
* o Selective Attack Options (SAOs)
* o Emergency Response Options (EROs)
* o Directed/Adaptive Planning Capability Options
* There are no longer Major Attack Options (MAOs) in the strategic war plan
NATO nuclear deterrence
- 1991 to present:
- no clear articulation of NATO nuclear policy
- NATO nuclear policy in limbo despite 2014/2022
- reduction in warhead numbers (200? in 2010, 100? in 2025)
- focus on warhead and delivery capability modernization
