Lecture 4: Trends in the study of war Flashcards
Definition of War
organized violence carried on by political units against each other”
The problems of coding wars;
when you go into the data bases political scientist have to put a label on these wars but these do not always correspond with the perception of the historians.
In practice wars are much more complicated than appear in political science data sets Don’t be cynical … but be skeptical!!!
WANTED: A Useable Definition
A useful definition is one that points to specific, measurable criteria
* Formal declaration of war?
* this would rule out Korean War (officially labelled as a police action)
* this would rule out Vietnam War and other post-WWII US wars
* Ukraine as ‘special military operation’
* Amount of time?
* But how much’?
* 1967 Six Day War too short?
* Numbers of deaths?
* Clash of armies as opposed to skirmish or minor dispute
* US attack on Grenada invalidated due to not enough casualties
Extra-state war
- Occurs when a state fights outside of its borders against a non-state actor
- E.g. British vs Boers, Soviets vs Afghan Mujahadeen, NATO vs Taliban
COW Definition
- Interstate war: fighting between the regular military forces of two or more countries, directed and approved of by central authorities, where at least 1,000 battle deaths occur
- Casualty criterion distinguishes it from other types of conflict. Some controversy over 1,000 deaths. Recent preference to reduce this to 500 deaths.
- Falklands and Kargil deaths both hover around 1,000, possibly slightly more or less
- Below this level are Militarized Interstate Disputes
Intra-state war
- Occurs between state and nonstate actors within the territory of a state
- Includes civil wars: effort to overthrow central government to take over nation or some territory controlled by it
- Regional internal war – local/regional government fight against rebel group
- Intercommunal war: conflict below government level – e.g. Christians and Muslims fighting each other in Lebanon in the 1970s
War (informal)
designating something as a war, civil war, Stop the War, war on drugs
Foreign military intervention
the movement of troops or military forces by one state, or a group of states in concert, across the border of another state (or colony of an independent country), or actions by troops already stationed in the target country
Militarized Interstate Dispute
- Includes threat to use force, the display of force, the actual use of military force
- Explicit threats to fire upon another states armed forces, threats to blockade another state’s territory, or threats to occupy another state’s territory
- Displays of Force including putting one’s armed force on alert, mobilizing one’s armed forces, or public demonstrations of one’s forces such as sailing warships off the coast of another state
- Uses of forces include firing weapons upon another state, initiating a blockade, or occupying territory
- Key criteria: actions must be explicit, overt, nonincidental, and government sanctioned
- Below the level of war
aggression
use of armed force by a State against the sovereignty, territorial integrity or political independence of another State, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Charter of the United Nations
Armed conflict
a de facto state of hostilities dependent on neither a declaration nor recognition of the existence of “war” by its parties
What do we mean by ‘World War One’?
Term created after world war 2 happened, it covers a lot of wars in that war.
Pinker Thesis
Over the course of human history there has been a steady move away from reliance on violence to settle disputes, as well as less reliance on the most savage and egregious forms of violence
Have we become more civilized?
Decline of War Thesis
- Since 1945 there have been relatively few large interstate wars, few wars among major/great powers, especially compared to pre-1945
- Also referred to as ‘Long Peace’ (since 1945)
- But obviously there are still many deadly wars
- Big question is whether in future we will see wars similar to first and second world wars in which great powers fight one another and involving tens of millions of deaths?
- Or is ‘Long Peace’ an anomaly that will not last much longer?
Democratic Peace Theory
Democratic Peace Theory
* “Ultimately the best strategy to ensure our security and to build a durable peace is to support the advance of democracy elsewhere. Democracies don’t attack each other’’
* Bill Clinton, 1994
* “the reason why I’m so strong on democracy is democracies don’t go to war with each other. And the reason why is the people of most societies don’t like war, and they don’t understand what war means … I’ve got great faith in democracies to promote peace”
* George W. Bush, 2004
- Are these claims true?
- Pairs of democracies are less likely to fight each other than other pairs of states (democracy vs non-democracy or non-democracy vs non-democracy)
- Not necessarily case democracies are more peaceful than non-democracies
what is the definition of democracy?
- Most citizens can vote
- Governments come to power in a free and fair election contested by two or more parties
- Executive is either popularly elected (presidential system) or is held responsible to an elected legislature (parliamentary system) or both
The Democratic Peace
: normative
- Externalize peaceful norms associated with democratic politics
- Non-democracies likely to externalize norms associated with violence and coercion associated with domestic politics
- But how to explain democracies attacking non-democracies?
- Also, how to explain non-democracies using peaceful means of conflict resolution?
Kantian triangle
Democracy combined with international organization membership + economic interdependence
The Democratic Peace
: institutional
- Checks and balances + more responsive to popular support or lack of it
- Wars are expensive and therefore generally unpopular
- Incentive for democratic leaders to resolve conflicts without violence
- But wars against autocratic governments easier to justify
- Audience costs: democratic leaders who make threats are more credible because harder for them to back down
The Capitalist Peace
- Capitalism is the force driving peace between democracies rather than democracy itself
- Unwillingness of wealthy states to go to war with one another
- Democratic peace also driven by the prospect of wealthy states becoming democratic states
Explanations for decline
of war:
- Democracy
- Economic interdependence
- Wealth
- Demographic and social change
- International organizations
- Territorial integrity
- Nuclear weapons
- Technology
- US hegemony
Azar Gat thesis: distinction between ‘zone of war’ and ‘zone of peace’
- ‘Zone of peace’ characterized by absence of interstate wars, civil wars and the security dilemma (e.g. US-Canada, Netherlands-Germany, South Korea-Japan) (more than 20k per capita, so less chance of war)
- ‘Zone of peace’ consists of roughly 40 countries whose GDP per capita is higher than $20k
- ‘Zone of war’ includes developing/undeveloped countries whose GDP per capita is much lower
- ‘Zone of war’: inter and intra state war looms as a constant threat
1912 Conference of Peace Scholars
- Excellent reasons in 1912 to suppose war was declining
- Strong belief that war too expensive + economic interdependence
- But what happens in 1914?
–> A lot of arguments shifted later so are we in a 1912 moment again?
What are the three levels of analysis (images) Waltz uses to explain war in “Man, the State, and War”?
Individual Level (First Image): War originates in the human mind (human nature).
State Level (Second Image): War is influenced by the internal structure of societies (e.g., democratic vs. autocratic systems).
International System Level (Third Image): War is a product of the structure and environment of the international system (e.g., anarchy, balance of power).
