Lecture 2: living in conflict

Question 1

scissors metaphor

Answer 1

• Opening of scissors as gap between losers and winners widens
• Closing of scissors as international economic chaos created by devastation of losers leads to economic problems for winners so gap narrows

Question 2

phoenix factor (Organski and Kugler)

Answer 2

: Phoenix factor: economic consequences of war are temporary/relatively quick recovery period (Germany after WWI, Germany and Japan after WWII)

Question 2

Norman Angell

Answer 2

all nations lose economic power but winners do not lose as much as the losers: gap is expected to continue for a long time

Question 3

Other Domestic Consequences of war

Answer 3

• Impact of inter-state war on the likelihood of intra-state conflict within a country (e.g. due to higher taxes, shift away from social programs)
• Political leaders who lose are not expected to survive in office. Defeat in war increases prospect of regime change
• On the other hand, winning a war doesn’t necessarily guarantee success: Churchill in 1945
• Democratic leaders are more likely to be removed than non-democratic leaders
• Why important: if leaders anticipate removal from office then they have little to gain and much to lose from international conflict
• More willing to continue a war that has little chance of success

Question 4

Demographic consequences of war

Answer 4

• Can lead to significant increase in mortality rates, particularly of young adult males
• But also of civilians: result of bombings and battles and from increases in premature death due to deteriorating wartime environment
• Declines in marriage/childbirth: although postwar baby boom

Question 5

sociopolitical consequences of war

Answer 5

• Women’s rights/change in gender roles and expectations…e.g. impact of women in World War I contributed to women’s right to vote being granted in the United States in 1920
• With male workers enlisted in military, women take on roles outside of home – in factories and other positions
• National Health Service in UK

Question 6

Biggest refugee crisis 2025

Answer 6

Syria: largest mass displacement

Question 7

Analysis of Effects war at National level

Answer 7

• Technological innovation is accelerated
• For example: nuclear energy, computers, penicillin, rocketry in WWII
• Economic/Environmental
• Damage to farm and other land
• Labor (soldiers/civilians killed or disabled)
• Capital (infrastructure such as buildings, bridges and machinery)
• War can lead to widespread declines in economic productivity either permanently or temporarily
• Some countries recover quicker than others