Lecture 7: Risk Assessment

Question 1

What is Forensic Risk Assessment? [2]

Answer 1

• Predicting if someone will commit a crime in the future based on their past behavior.
• Used for sentencing, parole, and risk management.

Question 2

Why Do We Assess Risk? [3]

Answer 2

• Legal Decisions: Helps decide punishment or parole.
• Risk Management: Identifies factors that increase risk of crime.
• Resources: Helps decide who needs more treatment or supervision.

Question 3

What does it mean to say risk is a “spectrum”? [1]

Answer 3

It means that risk isn’t just “yes” or “no,” like someone is either dangerous or not dangerous

Question 4

What are “base rates” [1]

Answer 4

figuring out how common something is in a group of people

For example, some bad things happen more often than others. It’s easier to predict common things and more difficult to predict rare things

Question 5

what is the Risk-Needs-Responsivity Model [3]

Answer 5

interventions should align with:

• risk level
• target criminogenic needs
• be tailored to an individual’s learning style and cultural needs

Question 6

[3] components of Risk-Needs-Responsivity Model

Answer 6

1. Risk: Intensity of intervention should match level of risk. Higher risk = higher intensity.”
2. Need: Treatment should target criminogenic needs (factors directly related to criminal behaviour).”
3. Responsivity: Intervention should be tailored to learning style, abilities, and cultural needs of the individual.

Question 7

[2] Types of Risk Factors

Answer 7

• Static Risk Factors: Do not change (e.g., past crimes, age at first crime).
• Dynamic Risk Factors: Can change with intervention or time (e.g., substance use, attitudes).

Question 8

[3] Approaches to Risk Assessment

Answer 8

1. Unstructured Judgment: Based on experience, but not reliable.
2. Actuarial Prediction: Uses statistics to predict risk (better than unstructured).
3. Structured Professional Judgment: Combines research + professional opinion (most balanced).

Question 9

[5] Important Risk Factors that increase crime and likelihood to reoffend

Answer 9

• Past criminal behavior (biggest predictor)
• Younger first-time offenders
• Substance use + mental illness
• Impulsivity, lack of remorse, and antisocial personality
• Lack of social support, unstable housing, and easy access to victims

Question 10

Prediction outcomes (Negatives and positives) [2]

Answer 10

• Risk assessments involve four possible outcomes in the prediction of future behaviour
• Goal: Risk assessments should be accurate to avoid unfair punishments or prevent crimes.

Question 11

False Positives & False Negatives [4]

Answer 11

• True Positive: Correctly predicting an individual will re-offend.
• True Negative: Correctly predicting an individual will not re-offend.
• False Positive: Incorrectly predicting an individual will re-offend.
• False Negative: Incorrectly predicting an individual will not re-offend.

Question 12

Specificity vs. Sensitivity [2]

Answer 12

A good risk assessment tool has:

• high specificity (correctly identifies people who will not offend)
• high sensitivity (correctly identifies people who will offend).

Question 13

[3] Risk Factors contributing to the risk of re-offending

Answer 13

• Static: Unchangeable over time (e.g., age at first offense, prior convictions)
• Dynamic: Changeable over time, potentially through intervention (e.g., substance use, attitudes).
• Acute dynamic: Factors that can rapidly change (e.g., negative mood, intoxication).

Question 14

[4] Protective Factors of Crime Risk

Answer 14

• Strong family & social support.
• Stable job or school involvement.
• Positive role models & prosocial activities.
• Good problem-solving skills & emotional control.

Question 15

What is the best approach to lower crime risk? [1]

Answer 15

The best approach combines science + expert judgment.

Question 16

What is a base rate? [1]

Answer 16

The percentage of people in a population who will commit a specific crime or violent act.