Lecture 6

Question 1

name 2 fields in which decision making is especially important?

Answer 1

1. medical decision making
2. decisions in law

Question 2

what are 3 models of thinking?

Answer 2

1. normative - ideal standard to reach goals
2. descriptive - how people normally think
3. prescriptive - how we should improve our thinking

Question 3

do we always think rational? why?

Answer 3

we do not always think rational, we’re influenced by

1. recent experience
2. the way information is presented
3. intuition
4. comparison with others

Question 4

what are the two reasoning systems in the dual process theory?

Answer 4

dual process theory

1. heuristic system - unconscious, automatic, implicit, fast
2. analytic system - conscious, controlled, explicit, slow

Question 5

define the term “cognitive bias”

Answer 5

cognitive bias

> a systematic error in judgement

> systematic deviation from the normative model

Question 6

explain: representativeness heuristic

Answer 6

representativeness heuristic

> consider how much hypothesis resembles available data

>>> is NOT estimating the probability

(linda is a bank teller example)

Question 7

explain: availability heuristic

Answer 7

availability heuristic

> the probability of an event is evaluated by the ease with which in comes to mind

Question 8

decision making: how to calculated expected value

Answer 8

EV formula

EV = value of payoff * probability

>>> option with higher EV is preferred

Question 9

why do we not alawys decide using EV?

Answer 9

expected value theory conflicts with intuitions

> example: 3 million is not three times as desirable as 1 million

Question 10

what criticisms on expected utility theory?

Answer 10

1. entire risk profile cannot be captured with a single number (expected utility)
2. utility has no meaning to most people

Question 11

KAHNEMANN & TVERSKY

explain: prospect theory

Answer 11

prospect theory:

> preferences do not depend on overall wealth and attitues only

> preferences are reference dependend (in terms of gains and losses)

Question 12

how can framing change decision making?

> give two examples

Answer 12

framing a prospect as a loss rather than a gain by changing the reference point changes the decision

> 2 types of framing

1. loss aversion
2. loss vs cost

> people are more willing to accept cost than loss

Question 13

name and explain the formula of the bayes theorem

Answer 13

bayes theorem

P (H | E ) = P( E | H ) / P ( E ) * P ( H )

the probability of H given E

=

the probability of E given H / the probability of E * propability of H

Question 14

name three types of error made in x-ray reading

> + 2 extra

Answer 14

1. search errors
2. recogntition errors
3. decision errors

> also: satisfaction of search and inattentional blindness can lead to error

Question 15

what were the conclusions of the x ray reading study

Answer 15

1. recognition error was the most prevalent
2. inattentional blindness was cause of error
3. also participants “did not believe their eyes”

> decision error?

Question 16

what is the main conclusion of the stress study?

what can future research adress?

Answer 16

stressors do influence performance, also the performance of experienced physicians

future research:

1. is practice with useful conditions useful?
2. is using a cognitive aid e.g. guideline useful during stressful events?