lecture 4: risk perceptions

Question 1

elements of risk

Answer 1

• likelihood: how likely is it?
• severity: how severe is it? How acceptable?
• timing: direct, few weeks, 10 years?

Question 2

availability heuristic + risk

Answer 2

• perceived likelihood is determined by how easy/difficult it’s to bring particular instances to mind
• example: plane crash 9/11 more likely to happen than die of obesitas

dependent from the role of media (priming, agenda setting)
- more publicity, more likely to occur

Question 3

representativeness heuristic

Answer 3

• events that are representative or typical of a class are assigned a high probability of occurence
• example: 10x red when playing roulette: 11th roulette change bigger on black (not true)

Question 4

anchoring heurstic

Answer 4

• judgements are influenced by a particular anchor that is given
• people make adjustments from this starting value when assessing probabilities
• example: Estimates of the number of murders per year are dependent on other examples given
  >1,000 deaths by electrocution
  >50,000 deaths by motor accidents

Question 5

displaying risks: percentages vs. frequencies

Answer 5

percentage: people interpret a risk of 50% literally
- example: the chance of getting the disease is 50%, 2 will get it, 2 will not. Those 2 already have it, so I’ll not get it –> NOT true, chance doesn’t have a memory (you’re still able to get it)

frequences: more easy to understand

Question 6

displaying risks: verbal labels

Answer 6

examples: extremely rare, sometimes, often etc

voordelen

• easy to understand
• takes uncertainty into account
• don’t imply precision

nadelen:

• imprecise, inexact, vague
• huge variance in term of how labels are interpreted

Question 7

displaying risks: form of presentation

Answer 7

absolute risk presentation: your risk is reduced with 5%: from 10% to 5%
relative risk presentation: your risk is reduced with 50%

cumulative risk presentation: little risk (eating 1 candybar) can result in substantial cumulative risk when doing it a longer period (1 candybar per day for years)

Question 8

article natter & berry absolute vs. relative risk results

Answer 8

2x2 design:
baseline info (yes/no & info about risk-reduction after flue shot (absolute/relative)
baseline info= 10% of population will be affected
absolute= risk 5% lower & relative= reduced by 50%

results
what people think the change of getting flue without flue shot is (actual % is 10):
without baseline info: 46%, with baseline info: 16%
relative risk: 35%, absolute 27%
–> same goes with getting the flue with flue shot

with baseline: higher satisfaction. higher perception of effectiveness, stronger intention, more accurate risk estimates

without baseline: intention with relative risk info worked best

Question 9

definition unrealistic optimism

Answer 9

• When you think that it is less likely that something bad will happen to you, while this is or this cannot be true
• When you think that it is more likely that something good will happen to you, while this is or this cannot be true

Question 10

absolute vs comparative unrealistic optimism

Answer 10

absolute unrealistic optimism= too optimistic compared to quantitative objective standard &

comparative unrealistic optimism= too optimistic compared to outcomes of one’s peers

• when having a lot of control –> more unrealistic optimism

Question 11

why do people display unrealistic optimism?

Answer 11

1. motivational explanation
   - people are motivated to believe that they are unlikely to experience negative outcomes
2. cognitive explanation
   - people have more info about themselves than the ‘average’ person
   - Representativeness heuristic: we judge our likelihood on basis of how well we match the stereotype of the people who experience event

Question 12

consequences of unrealistic optimism

Answer 12

1. affect
   - student experience more negative affect after receiving result –> decrease in self-esteem and wellbeing
2. decision making
   - about paying of debts: participant make poorer financial decision
   - quitting smoking: smokers too positive that they can quit smoking
3. behavior
   - participant with more optimism bet more money on knowledge quiz

Question 13

results article dillard et al. about unrealistic optimism

Answer 13

about quitting smoking

• true unrealistic optimism vs accurate
• perceived vs. objective risk
• dependent variables: smoking myths, quit intentions

result: lower perceived risk = more unrealistic optimism