Lecture 32: Big Data and NCDs Flashcards
What does the epidemiological triangle go between
HOST can also be animal carrier
ENVIRONMENT external factors that cause disease/ allow disease transmission
and AGENT: disease causing microbe (bacteria, virus, fungi and protozoa)
Define endemic and the level of fluctuations it has
A disease that is constantly present in a given population. Natural rhythms/Fluctuations are to be expected so outbreak/ epidemic can be identified when occurrence exceeds expected levels
Define disease outbreak
The occurrence of cases of disease in a community or region where it would not normally be expected- or at a much greater level and expected- increased number
Define Epidemic
When new cases of a certain disease in a given human population and during a given period exceed what is expected base on recent experience.
- not necessarily communicable
- rapid distribution across the country
What is the main difference between endemic, epidemic and outbreak
outbreak is for community/ region whereas epidemic is for whole population and fast spread. Endemic is the background level with seasons and doesn’t go away
What is a pandemic
An epidemic that has spread over several countries or continents, affecting a large number of people across the globe
What is the Basic reproductive number Rsubscript 0 and what does it measure
A measure of how infectious a disease is, it can be used to predict how fast and far an epidemic will spread.
How do you calculate R0 and what does each value mean
R0 = katakana te * c * d
The number of cases one case generates on average over the course of its infectious period = the probability of infection being transmitted (kte) * the rate of contacts in the host population (c) * (duration of infectiousness) (d)
What is the assumption of basic reproductive number:
It assumes non immune population: no herd immunity
What is herd immunity or indirect protection
A form of indirect protection from infectious disease that occurs when a large percentage of a population has become immune to an infection, thereby providing a measure of protection for individuals who are not immune.
What is the SIR model and variations
Deterministic model which compartmentalises the population into susceptible, infected, removed/recovered. and over time the person moves through these stages.
They can be more complex if factoring in
- exposed/not exposed
- vaccinated
- stochastic models, multistate, agent based models
How can Big data be used to help epidemics and SIR models
Tracking the pattern of epidemics and using the low baseline period to roll out public health interventions
Big data helps us factor in more information for SIR models so more complex.
If R0 is 4 how many people will a person infect
4
How is big data used when theres an outbreak
Determining where the agent is coming from at introduction: used airplane data
Determining how it spreads: look at twitter (estimate for exposure patterns, population density) and Look at climate (for vector capacity).
What are the strengths of using Big data in infectious disease epidemiology
Opportunity for identifying associations (not really causal), patterns, trends in data, hypothesis generating.
When analysed properly it can improve patient care, public health and reduce health care cost
