Lecture 3 Diffusion of Innovation Flashcards
S curves
S curves are curves that explain how technology is adopted. It tries to explain when an innovation will be changed into another. A useful too to determine in which state the innovation is.
Key phases of s curves
-introduction (slow growth)
-growth (rapid growth)
-maturity (slower growth)
-decline (possible decline or plateau)
the Introduction phase in the S-Curve
The early stage where a new technology has limited adoption and progress, with slow growth as the product is refined and the market learns its value.
Example: Early smartphones were expensive with limited functionality.
the Growth phase in the S-Curve
A phase of rapid adoption and improvement as the technology matures, and the market expands quickly.
Example: Widespread smartphone adoption in the 2010s.
the Maturity phase in the S-Curve
Growth slows as the technology peaks. Most potential customers have adopted it, and improvements are incremental.
Example: Current smartphone market with few groundbreaking changes.
the Decline phase in the S-Curve
The phase when a technology faces decline due to market saturation or new innovations.
Example: Decline of feature phones as smartphones became dominant.
What does an S-Curve illustrate?
The adoption of technology, showing slow initial uptake, rapid growth, maturity, and possible decline.
What are key strategic decisions influenced by the S-Curve?
Market entry, investment in new technologies, and when to abandon old products.
What is the Ferment stage in the S-Curve?
The early stage where innovation is developing and improving.
What is the Take-off/Dominant Design stage in the S-Curve?
A stage of rapid improvements and widespread acceptance of a particular design.
What is the Maturity stage in the S-Curve?
A stage of limited improvements and innovation potential.
What is the Discontinuity stage in the S-Curve?
A new wave of innovation begins as the old design reaches its limits.
What factors influence the adoption of innovation?
Relative advantage
Compatibility
Complexity
Trialability
Observability
What is the Relative Advantage of an innovation?
The perceived benefits of an innovation over existing products.
Example: Mobile phones versus landlines.
What does Compatibility refer to in the adoption process?
The innovation must fit existing technologies, needs, and values.
Example: Gay marriage in Muslim countries.
What does Complexity refer to in the adoption process?
The innovation should not be too complex to understand or use.
What is Trialability in the adoption process
The ability to try the innovation before fully adopting it.
Example: Trying out new video games in movie theaters.
What is Observability in the adoption process?
Seeing others adopt and use the innovation.
What are the five key phases of Gartner’s Hype Cycle?
Innovation Trigger
Peak of Inflated Expectations
Trough of Disillusionment
Slope of Enlightenment
Plateau of Productivity
What happens during the Innovation Trigger phase of gartners hype cycle?
A new technology is introduced, generating excitement but often with little practical use.
Example: Early talks about blockchain.
What happens during the Peak of Inflated Expectations phase of gartners hype cycle?
Unrealistic hype builds, leading to overpromises and underdelivery.
Example: Overhyped AI expectations.
What happens during the Trough of Disillusionment phase of gartners hype cycle?
Interest drops as the technology fails to meet expectations.
Example: VR struggles to gain mainstream traction.
What happens during the Slope of Enlightenment phase of gartners hype cycle?
Practical use cases emerge, and the technology improves steadily.
Example: VR becoming more useful in gaming and training.
What happens during the Plateau of Productivity phase of gartners hype cycle?
The technology becomes mainstream and widely adopted, delivering tangible benefits.
Example: Smartphones today.
What is Critical Mass in innovation adoption?
The tipping point where enough people have adopted the innovation, ensuring rapid growth.
Example: Social media platforms like Instagram reaching critical mass.
What are the five adopter groups in Rogers’ Diffusion of Innovation model?
Innovators (2.5%)
Early Adopters (13.5%)
Early Majority (34%)
Late Majority (34%)
Laggards (16%)
What is the role of Innovators in adoption? (Rogers diffusion of innovation model)
They are the first to try new ideas, often risk-takers and tech-savvy.
What is the role of Early Adopters in adoption? (Rogers diffusion of innovation model)
They embrace innovation early and influence others to adopt it.
What is the role of the Early Majority in adoption? (Rogers diffusion of innovation model)
They are cautious and wait for proven benefits before adopting the innovation.
What is the role of the Late Majority in adoption? (Rogers diffusion of innovation model)
They are skeptical and adopt only when the innovation becomes mainstream.
What is the role of Laggards in adoption? (Rogers diffusion of innovation model)
They are the last to adopt, often resistant to change.
What are the drawbacks of Rogers’ Diffusion of Innovation model?
It assumes total market penetration, overlooking niche markets.
It is innovation-based and doesn’t predict the success of individual companies.
It doesn’t account for innovations that may fail due to the rapid introduction of newer technologies.
