Lecture 3

Question 1

What are ampliative conclusions?

Answer 1

Generalizations based on limited sample.

Question 2

What are the differences between deductive and inductive reasoning?
-> Write down in table

Answer 2

Deductive
1) Conclusions are contained in the premises
2) truth preserving (If premises are true -> conclusion is true)
3) Valid or invalid

Inductive
1) Ampliative: conclusion goes beyond what is stated in the premises
2) Not truth preserving (despite premises being true, conclusion can be true or false)
3) Weaker or stronger (conclusion is not definite)

Question 3

Give and example of inductive and deductive reasoning.

Answer 3

Inductive:
Most greeks eat olives
Socrates is Greek
Socrates likes olives

Deductive:
All men are mortal
Socrates is a man
Socrates is mortal

Question 4

How does the Bayes’ theorem work?

Answer 4

Probability a hypothesis is true given the evidence = Probability a hypothesis is true * Probability of seeing the evidence if the hypothesis is true / Probability of observing the evidence

Question 5

What gets updated regarding the bayesian approach and how?

Answer 5

The belief of how probable the hyp is given new available evidence.

Question 6

What are problems regarding the Bayesian approach?

Answer 6

Bayesian approach has the problem of subjectivity -> because prior beliefs are left a subjective matter.

Question 7

What are the three characteristics of the Bayesian approach?

Answer 7

1) Empirical testing: adjust degree of belief in scientific claims
2) Non-monotonic: Adjusted as new info comes to light
3) Conditionalization: Update of beliefs given how probable the hyp is given available evidence