Lecture 21: judgement/decision making and deductive reasoning

Question 1

What was the famous names experiment

Answer 1

listen to 40 names and say if girls or men are more popular. Group 1 had 20 famous male names and group 2 had 20 famous female names. Those categories were chosen to have more of that sex because people knew the name.

Question 2

A person is said to employ the ________ _______ whenever he estimates frequency or probability by the ease with which instances or associations could be brought to mind.

Answer 2

probability heuristic

Question 3

correlation between estimate and retrieval is _________

Answer 3

nearly perfect

Russian novelists vs. flowers

Question 4

simulation heuristic

Answer 4

base judgements on how easily you can imagine (how things will turn out in the future, how they would have turned out in different circumstances)

Question 5

conjunction fallacy

Answer 5

occurs when people mistakenly believe that a conjunction of events (hot and sunny) is more probable than a single event (hot)

Question 6

framing effect

Answer 6

the same information presented in different forms can lead to different decisions (subjects more likely to endorse a medical treatment with a 50% success rate than one with a 50% failure rate

Question 7

heuristics do these 2 things

Answer 7

reduce task complexity, and lead to systematic errors

Question 8

deductive reasoning

Answer 8

syllogisms

Question 9

the modus podens argument

Answer 9

affirms the antecedent (If you are a mother, then you have a child. You are a mothers, therefore you have a child)

Question 10

the modus tollens argument

Answer 10

denies the consequent. (If you are a mother, then you have a child. You do not have a child, therefore you are not a mother)

Question 11

deductive fallacies

Answer 11

deny the antecedent and affirm the consequent