Lecture 21: Judgement and Decision Making II Flashcards
Availability
Judging the likelihood of an event based on how easy it is to bring examples to mind
Biases Due to Retrieval: -ing vs. n 2nd letter
It’s easy to think of words that end in ing, and is harder to think of words that have n as the 2nd to last letter, but of course any word ending in ing has n as the 2nd to last letter, but people make the mistake of thinking its ing because its easier
Famous Names Experiment
Show a bunch of famous female names and unfamous male names, people after will remember their being more female names b/c more famous
Frequency of lethal events experiment
- Given pairs of lethal events, people assume more frequency of lethal events given how much press/publicity is given to them
Household chores experiment
we assume that we do the chores a lot because we remember us doing the chores more than we remember our housemate doing the chores
Conjunction Fallacy
Mistaken belief that a conjunction of events may be more likely than just one component of that conjunction
* The -ing example (I and N and G is more likely that words that just have N as the second letter) caused by availability
- Mr. F has multiple heart attacks or he’s over 55 and has multiple heart attacks, people assume the 2nd is more likely because it is easier to simulate (caused by casual reasoning (simulation))
- People think its more likely she’s a feminist bank teller than just a bank teller, but being just a bank teller is more likely
Why use non-normative heuristics
Simplify the mental task involved in reasoning.
Simulation heuristic
udging the probability of a future event based on how easy it is to imagine
* Mr Crane and Mr Tee go to an airport, one misses their flight by 5 minutes and one by 30. The one who missed it by 5 is more upset because he could easily imagine himself not missing the flight
* Easier to imagine what a daughter’s eye color will be based on the mother than vice versa
○ In reality it doesn’t matter, but people think they will be better going from mother to daughter because it is easier to imagine
* Helen drives a car and narrowly avoids getting into an accident
○ More people guess that Helen avoided the crash and not the other driver because the story in in Helen’s POV
How a Problem is Framed vs. Risk
- When we frame information positively, people tend to be risk averse
- When we frame information negatively, people tend to be risk seeking
