Lecture 2 - Causality

Question 1

What is Causal Analysis (X and Y)?

Answer 1

X (Independent Variables) caused Y (Dependent variables)
Must exist independently, chronologically, and Y must be dependent on X happening. Should be serious and conservative

Question 2

Def - Probable Cause

Answer 2

Doesn’t absolutely require an X to happen for Y to occur, just probably caused it

Question 3

Def - Causality

Answer 3

X has to come before Y in order for X to cause Y. No X = No Y

Question 4

Steps to causal analysis

Answer 4

1. Look at important international events (war, famine, recessions, conferences)
2. Explore which factors predict occurrence of the event
3. Establish “more of X= more likely Y”
4. Theoretical Explanation (causal mechanism) for connection

Question 5

What are the three organizing causes and when are they useful?

Answer 5

Deep (strongest), Intermediate, Precipitating.
Useful for single event causal analysis

Question 6

Def - Deep, Intermediate, Precipitating

Answer 6

Deep - Farthest away, but still plays a role (treaty)
Intermediate - Middle ground (militarism)
Precipitating - Right before the event (assassination)

Question 7

What are some Causal claims for the atomic bombs? (What caused the bombings?)

Answer 7

Pearl Harbor, Yalta Conference, German Surrender

Question 8

What are the Causal Claims for the Atomic Bombing causing Y?

Answer 8

1. Bombs Saved Lives (Who, How many?)
2. Bombs caused Japan to surrender (largely untrue because of other factors, supports deterrence and victimization)

Question 9

What is a Causal Narrative?

Answer 9

Narratives/stories that we believe even though they may not be true

Question 10

Why do Causal Narratives happen?

Answer 10

They are political - reflect who we are and are emotionally reassuring/resonant, even if false.

Question 11

What were options besides dropping the Atomic Bombs?

Answer 11

1. Modify Surrender to Keep Emperor
2. Rely on Naval Blockade/Conventional Bombing
3. Demonstrate to Japanese Dignitaries
4. Wait for and assess impact of Soviets’ entry

Question 12

What was the importance of the Japanese Emperor?

Answer 12

He was a remote but also godlike figure

Question 13

How do the atomic bombings also bring up issues regarding science and international politics?

Answer 13

1. It asks us whether scientists should participate in politics if their knowledge and work is used in political policies
2. It brings up issues of how politics intervenes into science
3. It asks whether those who generate atomic bombs and make possible atomic warfare, might also be held responsible for other effects following from those

Question 14

When we say ‘X caused Y’ we mean

Answer 14

X precedes Y temporally (time)

Question 15

How should we approach causality in social science (including IR)?

Answer 15

Cautiously and Conservatively