Lecture 18 - Hype Cycle & Business Strategies for the Future

Question 1

Hype Cycle

Answer 1

Graphical representation of the “hype ”and following disappointment surrounding specific emerging technologies

Question 2

Hype cycle has 5 stages:

Answer 2

1. Technology trigger
2. Peak of inflated expectations
3. Trough of disillusionment
4. Slope of enlightenment
5. Plateau of productivity

Question 3

1. Technology trigger

Answer 3

o Event that creates great public interest

o Ex: product launch

Question 4

2. Peak of inflated expectations

Answer 4

o Publicity creates unrealistic expectations and over-enthusiasm of the technology
o Some successful applications
o More failures than successes

Question 5

3. Trough of Disillusionment

Answer 5

o	Fail to meet expectations
o	Press abandons topic
o	Technology abandoned
o	No longer hot topic with high hopes
o	Backlash against the technology – people fail to see practicality

Question 6

4. Slope of Enlightenment

Answer 6

o Businesses that didn’t abandon technology experiment to understand benefits and search for practical applications

Question 7

5. Plateau of Productivity

Answer 7

o Benefits of technology become widely accepted
o Stable technology – broadly applicable
o Evolves into 2nd and 3rd generations
o Find niche markets

Question 8

Hype Cycle: Criticisms

Answer 8

• Shape of graph hasn’t been updated to take into account the accelerated rate at which technology is introduced and applied
• Not scientific in nature. (nature of technology)
• Suggest all technology has the same outcome (what about bad technologies?)
• Irrational optimism (All technology has a light at the end of the tunnel.)

Question 9

John Boyd: OODA Model

Answer 9

• Decision making framework using the method of OBSERVE, ORIENT, DECIDE, ACT to out maneuver opponent by delaying reaction time.
• OODA: Created by military strategist John Boyd
• Used by professional sports players (Baseball, tennis etc.)

Question 10

OODA Model

Observe:

Answer 10

o What do you see? Assess how the winds are changing

o Take in information – builds the foundation for good decision making

Question 11

OODA Model

Orient:

Answer 11

o Process information and position yourself for a decision
o Become aware of implications of what you are deciding
o Prevents heading off in the wrong direction

Question 12

OODA Model

Decide:

Answer 12

o Purely mental – distinct from action
o Purely the moment before implementation
o When able to understand the key questions – make the choice

Question 13

OODA Model

Act:

Answer 13

o Implement decision in the most straightforward and efficient manner
o Rather than second guess, assess
o Not your final move, repeat the cycle

Question 14

3 key messages in “Wait: The Art and Science of Delay” (Frank Partnoy)

Answer 14

1. There are two steps to decision making (figure out your time world, wait as long as you possible can in that time frame)
2. Manage Delay
3. Procrastination is not EVIL.

Question 15

Summary: Business Strategies for the Future (3 Things)

Answer 15

• Don’t adopt on the first incline of Hype cycle
• Have quick implementation times
• Wait, Wait, Wait, Wait, FIRE