Lecture 13: Doing Research in Economic Psychology Flashcards
economists vs psychologists (Sarah Lichtenstein and Paul Slovic)
P-bets vs $-bets study by psychologists
- economists considered the study very strange and tried to explain the ‘mistakes’
- replicated the study
- hostile towards participants and experimenters
common critique from economists
- if the stakes are large enough, people will get it right
- in the real world people will learn to get it right
- in the aggregate errors will cancel
- in markets, arbitrage and competition will eliminate the effects of irrational agents
- where is the theory?
- economic thoery has done very well so far, and if it is not broken don’t fix it
- if the stakes are large enough, people will get it right
- preference reversal phenomenon occurs with and without financial incentive
- people still don’t lie to the full extent when incentives are high
- in ultimatum game, when playing for $100, people still reject unfair offers
- in the real world people will learn to get it right
- accurate learning requires timely and organized feedback
- many lab phenomena were replicated in the field
- in the aggregate errors will cancel
- ‘errors’ that have been discovered are systematic
- not rational ≠ random and unpredictable
- in markets, arbitrage and competition will eliminate the effects of irrational agents
- conditions that allow rational agents to reach an optimal behavior and result are rare
- mistakes in market often persist, as they do not create profit (and thus exploitation)
- where is the theory?
these behavioral phenomena add up and lead to the development of descriptive theories that predict behavior
- economic theory has done very well so far, and if it is not broken, why fix it
- the success of economic theory depends on how it tests
- a test should support a theory only if it would also refute it under opposite results, yet economic theories are rarely challenged in this way
- proposal for an incentive-based bets on experiment outcomes to assess scientists’ confidence in their predictions (reputation)
2 false statements
Thaler believed that if everyone would agree that these statements are flase, then no one would have to waste any time repudiating them
- “rational models are useless”
- “all behavior is rational”
psychology vs economics (psychology)
- external validity
- more context
- less use of incentives
- more one-shot
- use of experimental deception
external validity (psychology)
generalize from the research context to the setting that the research is intended to approximate
more context (psychology)
context is part of the decision making process and is important
less use of incentives (psychology)
- less focus on incentivized behavior, sometimes with points or hypothetical choices
- at times leads to similar results as with incentives
more one-shot (psychology)
- one-shot decisions are more common
- if repetition exists, it is seen as a tool to examine learning
use of experimental deception (psychology)
participants are sometimes told information that is not true (to manipulate factors, measure outcomes more easily)