Lecture 13-14: Leadership Flashcards
Path Dependency prevents easy reform solutions:
Even though to want to reform and agreeing to a new set if institution is difficult : everyone has different interest (second order collective action problem)
Accountability: Once I’m in power, why help citizens and voters hold me accountable?
Collective Action: Why report corruption if it leads to social shaming and everyone else is corrupt?
Representation: Why change the rules by which I was elected
Path dependency restricts the opportunities for change
Agency
The capacity of agents to shape their environment
The ability to:
o Change and enforce institutions
o Make institutions legitimate/respected
o Coordinate collective action
o Alter social norms
Agents can change the system: nelson mandela
Critical Junctures
Moments in time when the constraints of path dependency are alleviated and
agency has broader scope to alter institutional rules and outcomes in the future
break path dependency! Past doesn’t many that more because it changed now
shocks moments that open up new opportunities, dependent on how agents behave
Institutional Rules Reward Coalition Members
Examples of coalition benefits:
Privatization & Policy Changes
2018 Indian airport privatization:
Rules changed to allow firms without airport experience to bid
Adani Group (supporter of PM Modi) won all bids
Corruption in Coalitions
Brazil’s Mensalão scandal:
US$12,000 per month paid to Brazilian congress members to vote for the government
Key takeaway:
Coalition members may benefit from institutional changes and sometimes these benefits involve corrupt practices to secure support.
Critical Junctures
- External Imposition/Threats
External pressures or threats leading to major shifts in governance
Example: Japanese post-war constitution after WWII
Example: Korean War shaping political decisions
2. Revolutions
Major societal shifts following war or crisis
Example: RPF’s victory after the Rwandan genocide
Example: Brazil’s 1988 constitution, which included broad social rights
3. Economic Shocks
Major economic crises that force countries to adopt new policies
Example: Oil shocks and debt crises in the 1980s
Example: Difficult choices on public service funding
4. Shifting Ideas about Institutions
Changing ideas about political and economic institutions
Example: Fall of the Berlin Wall and democratization in Sub-Saharan Africa
Example: Arab Spring, a movement for democratic change in the Arab world
How Leaders Use Agency
Leaders do not use agency by:
Being smarter
Working harder
Being more honest
Being more ideologically committed
Leaders use agency by:
Forming Coalitions
A collective action strategy
Common goal: win and stay in power
Members want to free-ride on others’ concessions
Leaders must get enough members to compromise and agree
Formal coalitions emerge as a result of these agreements
Rwanda’s Developmental Success
Achieved rapid development despite constraints:
Geography: Landlocked, tropical
History/Culture: Colonial legacy, slavery, genocide damaging trust
-Institutions: Authoritarian political structure
-Strengthened institutional rules
-Centralized, autonomous state
-Effective absorption of external aid
-Low corruption, low clientelism
-Limited resistance from winners/losers
Developmental Coalition
A broad coalition with concentrated enforcement power that directs rents to invest in development
o Depends on the relationship between political and economic elites
Policy Design
Not just technical analysis or ‘pro-poor’ impact.
Instead, focus on how policies can:
Strengthen accountability
Empower collective action
Enhance representation
Developmental Coalitions and Politics
Developmental Coalitions Embrace Politics
-They make development politically successful:
-Business elites gain investment opportunities & protection in exchange for electoral support.
-Bureaucrats earn respect by delivering services, not through corruption.
-Voters reward politicians for successful development outcomes.
Unlike other coalitions that make development politically unattractive
-Narrow coalitions are extractive:
-They benefit by keeping rival groups poor (e.g., Chad).
Success Factors for Developmental Coalitions
Must overcome structural constraints.
The critical juncture (moment of opportunity) is temporary.
Developmental Coalitions
Broad Coalitions
Inclusive institutions, not extractive
Embeddedness between bureaucracy & private sector
Losers are compensated, reducing resistance
Collective action shifts equilibrium
Concentrated Power
Leader disciplines coalition members
Enforces institutions & accountability
Protects bureaucrats’ autonomy
Corruption is controlled, ensuring development via protected investments
Rents Directed to Investment
Centralizing the management of economic rents
Embedded autonomy coordinates & safeguards investments
How Developmental Coalitions Drive Political Change
Political Success is Key
Structural constraints remain; critical junctures are temporary.
Success depends on:
Changing politics
Escaping bad equilibrium
Policy Feedback
–Definition
Policies and reforms reshape future politics.
Bolsa Família and Political Change
Vested Interest & Accountability
Provides economic security, reducing reliance on clientelism.
Collective Action
Fosters a new collective identity and pride among poor beneficiaries.
Representation
Benefits target mothers, strengthening their political influence.
Political Impact
Beneficiaries are more likely to vote for the party that introduced the policy.
All political parties now compete to expand the program.
Promotes the ‘Inclusion of outsiders’ (Arretche 2018).
Conditions for Rwanda’s Developmental Coalition
Weberian bureaucracy with a history of indigenous state-building
Disempowerment of large landowners
Dominant, cohesive elite
External threats that aligned elite interests with development
Critical Juncture
The 1994 genocide and the RPF’s victory created a pivotal moment for change
Kagame’s Agency
Key role in forming a coalition and driving development
Kagama´s policy
Forging a broad coalition
o Inviting Hutu moderates into the government
o Convening private sector investors, exiles, diaspora
Using concentrated power
o “A steady stream of officials at all levels of government have been criminally or administratively sanctioned” (WB 2020)
o Human rights violations, arrest of journalists, and assassinations of opponents to retain power
Enforcing accountability
o Strict punishments for corruption
o Fines for parents whose children are not in school
* Initiating collective action
o Social norms, eg. Imihigo, Ubudehe, Umuganda
o A national civic (non-ethnic) identity
* Increasing representation for pro-development groups
o 30% quotas for women since 2003
But the sustainability of the regime is unclear
