Lecture 12: Cyberwarfare

Question 1

War of Consciousness

Answer 1

“if you want peace, you have to win the consciousnes war” -> using information to influence thinking and get others to act in a way that is favorable to you

Question 2

Information Security

Answer 2

Information space + information systems

Question 3

Russian Information Security Doctrine

Answer 3

Sought to secure protection and sovereignty of Russian information space, promoted by the Gulf War and Kosovo campaign where US/NATO used information to further their objectives

Question 4

Who sees themselves as under threat?

Answer 4

The Putin regime, due to the “color revolution”, thus they need to advance in information operations

Question 5

Russia’s goal with information wars

Answer 5

In peacetime, undermine/weaken adversaries and prevent a victory by diverting their attention through “indirect” (non-kinetic) means -> “strategic containment” or “defensive pre-emption”

Question 6

Russian National Security Strategy 2021

Answer 6

The need to prevent the use of information and comms tech from interfering in internal affairs, creating a safe information space and defend the Russian population

Question 7

Cyber tools strengthen

Answer 7

Russia’s own international position (zero-sum game)

Question 8

Aktivnost

Answer 8

“Active measures” in peace-time of non-kinetic tools to weaken adversaries, e.g. cyber attacks sponsored by Russian state

Question 9

Cyber attacks take time, so…

Answer 9

Pressure needs to be continuously applied

Question 10

Russia uses cyber warfare in which 2 spheres

Answer 10

Cyber-technical (techniques to hack computer systems) and cyber-psychological (manipulate people’s attitudes)

Question 11

What does the cyber-psychological sphere encompass

Answer 11

Influencing electoral outcomes, hack-and-leak activities, doxing, encouraging societal divisions to disorient the adversary (and society)

Question 12

Kompromat

Answer 12

Hack-and-leak

Question 13

3 aims of cyber warfare

Answer 13

1. Weaken adversaries politically and societally
2. Gather information on adversaries
3. Probe for vulnerabilities that can be taken advantage of later

Question 14

Vnezapnost

Answer 14

Probing for vulnerabilities that can be taken advantage of later

Question 15

Attribution problem of cyber warfare

Answer 15

Cyber obfuscation is a think blanket of deniability around cyber warfare where Russia can claim it was carried out by another state or non-state actor, be a false-flag operation, or loose-cannon patriot hackers

Question 16

What does international law say to do about the Russian cyber threat

Answer 16

There are no laws specifically regarding cyber warfare, but general agreement that the UN charter also applies to cyber, meaning than any physical damage can constitute a use of force and states have the right to respond by own cyber capabilities and kinetic forces

Question 17

How does the UK have to abide by the Law of Armed Conflict?

Answer 17

Russia is technically not doing destructive attacks, which means UK also cannot respond destructively - but they are still illegal and amount to intrusions on sovereignty

Question 18

2 possible options to deter Russian attacks

Answer 18

1. Deterrence by denial (building cyber defense, making cyber attacks costly)
2. Deterrence by punishment (retaliation)

Question 19

3 issues with deterrence by denial

Answer 19

1. Is there any capability to prevent Russia from attacking?
2. How do you communicate your own capabilities? How do you counteract misinformation?
3. Is there any credibility to it?

Question 20

7 Issues with deterrence by punishment

Answer 20

1. How do you demonstrate your capabilities? Should you?
2. Credibility?
3. Attribution problem
4. In UK; retaliation is illegal, but reprisal is legal for only for deterrence purposes, e.g. to make Russia stop
5. Cannot target civilian infrastructure
6. Reciprocity (Russian vs. UK winter)
7. Discrimination

Question 21

In order to deter attacks properly, NATO countries will have to

Answer 21

Move away from international law

Question 22

Reading: From Blitzkrieg to Bitskrieg: The Military Encounter with Computers - John Arquilla

Answer 22

The concept of Bitskrieg describes the modern use of computers and information technology in warfare, which has transformed the nature of warfare from physical force to digital information

The concept of Blitzkrieg is still important because it emphasizes rapid decision-making, mobility and surprise, but this now encompasses cyber attacks