Leadership Flashcards
What is development determined by? (Structurally)
- Geography
- History
- Geopolitics
- Formal institutions
- Informal institutions
- The State
How are history and institutions path dependent?
- Winners from current institutions are powerful and veto changes
- Informal institutions depend on expectations - stuck in equilibrium/trap
- Agreeing new institutions is a collective action problem itself - which new institutions?
How does path dependency prevent easy policy solutions?
- Accountability
– Once I’m in power, why help citizens and voters hold me accountable? - Collective action
– Why report corruption if it leads to social shaming and everyone else is corrupt? - Representation
– Why change the rules by which I was elected?
Definition of agency
The capacity of agents to shape their environment
What is the scope for agency to promote development?
- The ability to:
– Change institutions
– Enforce institutions
– Make institutions legitimate/respected - Less about the individual personalities of “great men/women” which are hard to replicate
- More about the set of strategies that leaders use
Definition of critical junctures
Moments in time when the constraints of path dependency are alleviated and agency has broader scope to alter institutional rules and outcomes in the future
What can cause critical junctures?
- External imposition/threats
– eg. the Japanese post-war constitution - Revolutions, eg. after war
– eg. the RPS’s victory after the Rwandan genocide - Economic shocks
– eg. oil shocks and debt crises forced neoliberal reform in the 1980s - Shifting ideas about institutions
– eg. fall of Berlin Wall led to democratization in Sub-Saharan Africa
How do leaders use agency?
Not by:
- Being smarter
- Working harder
- Being more honest
- Being more ideologically committed
BUT by forming coalitions
How is forming coalitions collective action?
- Common goal to win and stay in power
- Each potential member wants to free-ride on the concessions of others
- Leaders must get enough potential members to compromise and agree
Benefits of coalitions
- Institutional rules reward coalition members
– In 2018, 6 Indian airports were privatized
– All won by Guatam Adani’s Adani Group
– Privatization rules changed to allow firms without direct experience of running an airport
– A supporter of PM Modi’s since 2003 - Coalition benefits include corruption
– Brazil’s Mensalao (“big monthly payment”) scandal
– $12,000 per month to vote for the government in congress
What is needed for a coalition to be pro-development?
Country-specific; depends on the relationship between political and economic elites
Definition of developmental coalition
A broad coalition with concentrated enforcement power that directs rents to invest in development
Pro-development coalition characteristics
- Broad coalitions
- Concentrated power
- Rents directed to investment
Broad coalitions (pro-development coalition characteristics)
- Key economic and political elites are part of the coalition
– So institutions are inclusive, not extractive
– So more people have a stake in development
– So losers are credibly compensated and don’t resist
Concentrated power (pro-development coalition characteristics)
- The leader can discipline members of the coalition
– So institutions are enforced
– Autonomy of bureaucrats is protected
– Accountability limits (but not eliminates) corruption and clientelism
– Leaders can stimulate collective action
Rents directed to investment (pro-development coalition characteristics)
- Not eliminating rents (neoliberalism)
- A Developmental state
– Centralizing the management of economic rents - “Embedded” autonomy protects investments
- Not eliminating corruption
- Ensuring corruption/favoritism “buys” development
In what ways do development coalitions not avoid politics
- They make development politically successful
- Unlike other coalitions that make development politically unattractive
How do development coalitions make development politically successful?
- Business elites get favorable terms and investment opportunities
- Politicians get electoral financing from business elites
- Bureaucrats earn social praise form developmental success, not corruption
- Voters reward politicians for development
What is it about other coalitions that make development unattractive?
- Narrow coalitions
- Extractive
- Benefit from keeping competing groups poor
How do development coalitions use policy feedback?
Using policy feedback to promote development
- Policies designed not just for development
- But to raise the political pressure for future development
– Accountability
– Collective action
– Representation
Example of policy using policy feedback
Bolsa Familia cash transfers in Brazil have created a strong vested interest in defending the program
- Accountability
– A programmatic policy empowering voters to reject clientelism
- Collective action
– A collective identity among poor beneficiaries
- Representation
– Benefits go to mothers, strengthening their domestic and political power
- People that received Bolsa Familia benefits are more likely to vote for the party that created the policy
- All political parties now compete to extend the program
- The “inclusion of outsiders”
What are Rwanda’s structural restraints to development?
- Geography
– Landlocked, tropical - History and culture
– Legacy of colonialism, slavery, and genocide must damage trust - Institution
– Authoritarian political institutions
How has Rwanda successfully developed?
- Institutional rules have been strengthened
- The state has been centralized and given autonomy
- External aid has been absorbed successfully
- Low corruption, low clientelism
- Limited resistance to change by losers/winners
A development coalition in Rwanda
- Broad coalition
– Politicians
– Business, military elites
– Tutsis and moderate Hutus
– Women - Concentrated power
– The Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) is a dominant party
– Grounded in the military - Directing rents to investment
– Tri-Star Investments / Crystal Ventures (100% RPF controlled)
– >3% GDP; 9% of national revenue
– Political protection from the RPF
Rwanda as a “developmental patrimonial” state
- Developmental
– Directing and disciplining resources for investment - Patrimonialism
– Centralized and personalized power
– Surprising, what guarantees Kagame won’t change his mind?
What conditions permitted the emergence of a developmental coalition in Rwanda?
The agency of Kagame in forming a coalition
- Forging a broad coalition
- Using concentrated power
- Enforcing accountability
- Initiating collective action
- Increasing representation for pro-development groups
- Insisting aid must follow the government agenda
Forging a broad coalition (agency of Kagame in forming a coalition)
- inviting Hutu moderates into the government
- Convening private sector investors, exiles, diaspora
Using concentrated power (agency of Kagame in forming a coalition)
- A steady stream of officials at all levels of government have been criminally or administratively sanctioned
- Human rights violations, arrest of journalists, and assassinations of opponents to retain power
Enforcing accountability (agency of Kagame in forming a coalition)
Punishments for parents whose children are not in school
Initiating collective action (agency of Kagame in forming a coalition)
- Social norms eg. Imihigo, Ubudehe, Umuganda
- A national civic (non-ethnic) identity
Increasing representation for pro-development groups (agency of Kagame in forming a coalition)
30% quotas for women since 2003
Insisting aid must follow the government agenda (agency of Kagame in forming a coalition)
- One of only two countries receiving an “A” in the OECD 2010 evaluation of the Paris Agenda for Action
- Many funds as direct budget support
Why is the sustainability of Kagame’s regime unclear?
- Dependent on Kagame
- Economic crisis may undermine the coalition
- Reciprocal financing can easily become corruption
- Dominant parties lack credibility
- Violence discourages investment
What does the role of agency of coalitions imply for the role of donors and external aid?
- Understand the motivations of leaders and the nature of coalitions
– Do political science! - If the coalition is not development, limit support
– At best, finance civil society instead
– Try to stimulate developmental coalitions - If the coalition is developmental, support it with very few conditionalities
– Local actors are already motivated to enforce the rules and accountability
– The risks of aid (corruption, lack of ownership, isomorphic mimicry) are less of a concern
