L6 & 7 - Modelling in the Marine Environment Flashcards
What is short-term modelling used for?
Forecasting
What is long-term modelling used for?
Identifying trends/comparing to a known state
Give 7 reasons why we should model the marine environment
- Climate Change
- Coastal Management
- Aviation
- SOLAS & GMDSS
- National Weather Services
- Accident Investigation
- Industry Specific Decision Making
What are the 4 types of modelling?
- Analysis
- Empirical Forecasting (Conceputal Modelling)
- Numerical Modelling
- Global/Regional Models
What does analysis do?
Look at the state of the atmosphere or ocean at a given time
What type of data does short-term and long-term analysis use?
Short-Term: Real-Time Data
Long-Term: Climate Means/Fluxes/Anomalies
What does analysis provide?
The initialising/forcing fields for modelling and data that can be used for model verification/QC
What comes after analysis?
Empirical Forecasting
What is empirical modelling based on (With 2 examples)?
Known models of the atmosphere
e.g. Mid-Latitude Depressions and Jet Streams
What 2 types of meteorology can be used in empirical forecasting?
- Synoptic
2. Air Mass
What does empirical forecasting give a concept for?
Nowcasting and Short-Term Forecasting
What are the 6 types of Numerical Modelling
- Diagnostic Equations
- Paramterisation
- Data Assimilation
- Model Run
- Ensembles
- Ocean Forecasting
Give 5 points about diagnostic equations
- No complete Solution
- Solved for a parameter with respect to time
- Solved at grid points across the globe
- Billions of calculations
- Need Paramterisation
Give 6 examples of diagnostic equations
- Hydrostatic Equation
- Thermodynamic Equation
- Equations of State
- Continuity Equation
- Water Vapour Equations
- Newtons Laws
What is Paramterisation?
Some models use constant values for heat exchange between the ocean and atmosphere
Give 5 examples of/applications of Paramterisation
- Convection/Precipitation
- Gravity Wave Drag
- Orographic Drag
- Suface and Sub-Surface Processes
- Large Scale Cloud/Precipitation
What is data assimilation?
The combination of available data and very short term forecasts to get a best fit between models and observations and is then used as the initialising data for model runs
What is a model run?
Calculations made at grid points using parameters and fixed variables to get steps in time to a valid forecast
What are model runs good for?
Wind Speed/Direction, Temperature and Humidity
What is ECMWF?
EU Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting
What is WAFC? and where are the 2 main centres?
World Area Forecast Centres
London and Washington
What was the original requirement for ocean forecasting and what is the requirement today?
Military
Today - Climate Change and El Niño
What is FOAM?
Forecast Ocean Assimilation Model
Give 5 research applications of modelling
- Eddy Resolving
- Severe Storms
- Post Event Analysis
- Pollution
- Impacts on Larger Scale Models
Give 3 examples of climate models
- CO2 Fluxes
- Ocean Circulation
- Heat Fluxes
What are decadal models used for?
Oscillations and El Niño
Give 5 issues associated with modelling
- Physics of the Models
- Incomplete Knowledge of the Systems
- Varying accuracies required
- Quantity and Quality of Initialising Data Sets
- Planners need answers on a long-term timeframe
