L6 & 7 - Modelling in the Marine Environment

Question 1

What is short-term modelling used for?

Answer 1

Forecasting

Question 2

What is long-term modelling used for?

Answer 2

Identifying trends/comparing to a known state

Question 3

Give 7 reasons why we should model the marine environment

Answer 3

1. Climate Change
2. Coastal Management
3. Aviation
4. SOLAS & GMDSS
5. National Weather Services
6. Accident Investigation
7. Industry Specific Decision Making

Question 4

What are the 4 types of modelling?

Answer 4

1. Analysis
2. Empirical Forecasting (Conceputal Modelling)
3. Numerical Modelling
4. Global/Regional Models

Question 5

What does analysis do?

Answer 5

Look at the state of the atmosphere or ocean at a given time

Question 6

What type of data does short-term and long-term analysis use?

Answer 6

Short-Term: Real-Time Data

Long-Term: Climate Means/Fluxes/Anomalies

Question 7

What does analysis provide?

Answer 7

The initialising/forcing fields for modelling and data that can be used for model verification/QC

Question 8

What comes after analysis?

Answer 8

Empirical Forecasting

Question 9

What is empirical modelling based on (With 2 examples)?

Answer 9

Known models of the atmosphere

e.g. Mid-Latitude Depressions and Jet Streams

Question 10

What 2 types of meteorology can be used in empirical forecasting?

Answer 10

1. Synoptic

2. Air Mass

Question 11

What does empirical forecasting give a concept for?

Answer 11

Nowcasting and Short-Term Forecasting

Question 12

What are the 6 types of Numerical Modelling

Answer 12

1. Diagnostic Equations
2. Paramterisation
3. Data Assimilation
4. Model Run
5. Ensembles
6. Ocean Forecasting

Question 13

Give 5 points about diagnostic equations

Answer 13

1. No complete Solution
2. Solved for a parameter with respect to time
3. Solved at grid points across the globe
4. Billions of calculations
5. Need Paramterisation

Question 14

Give 6 examples of diagnostic equations

Answer 14

1. Hydrostatic Equation
2. Thermodynamic Equation
3. Equations of State
4. Continuity Equation
5. Water Vapour Equations
6. Newtons Laws

Question 15

What is Paramterisation?

Answer 15

Some models use constant values for heat exchange between the ocean and atmosphere

Question 16

Give 5 examples of/applications of Paramterisation

Answer 16

1. Convection/Precipitation
2. Gravity Wave Drag
3. Orographic Drag
4. Suface and Sub-Surface Processes
5. Large Scale Cloud/Precipitation

Question 17

What is data assimilation?

Answer 17

The combination of available data and very short term forecasts to get a best fit between models and observations and is then used as the initialising data for model runs

Question 18

What is a model run?

Answer 18

Calculations made at grid points using parameters and fixed variables to get steps in time to a valid forecast

Question 19

What are model runs good for?

Answer 19

Wind Speed/Direction, Temperature and Humidity

Question 20

What is ECMWF?

Answer 20

EU Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting

Question 21

What is WAFC? and where are the 2 main centres?

Answer 21

World Area Forecast Centres

London and Washington

Question 22

What was the original requirement for ocean forecasting and what is the requirement today?

Answer 22

Military

Today - Climate Change and El Niño

Question 23

What is FOAM?

Answer 23

Forecast Ocean Assimilation Model

Question 24

Give 5 research applications of modelling

Answer 24

1. Eddy Resolving
2. Severe Storms
3. Post Event Analysis
4. Pollution
5. Impacts on Larger Scale Models

Question 25

Give 3 examples of climate models

Answer 25

1. CO2 Fluxes
2. Ocean Circulation
3. Heat Fluxes

Question 26

What are decadal models used for?

Answer 26

Oscillations and El Niño

Question 27

Give 5 issues associated with modelling

Answer 27

1. Physics of the Models
2. Incomplete Knowledge of the Systems
3. Varying accuracies required
4. Quantity and Quality of Initialising Data Sets
5. Planners need answers on a long-term timeframe