L10: Judgement, Decision-Making and Reasoning

Question 1

What is judgement?

Answer 1

Deciding likelihood of various events

Question 2

What is decision-making?

Answer 2

Selecting between various options

Question 3

What is reasoning?

Answer 3

Drawing inferences from the knowledge we possess

Question 4

What does support theory prove?

Answer 4

Shows that memory limitations prevent people from remembering and considering all information relevant to make a judgement. As a result, we only have enough bandwidth to focus on the aspects described in the question. So, judgements rely on information that is most available at the time of judgement.

Question 5

What is the natural frequency hypothesis?

Answer 5

Judgement performance is much better when problems are presented with actual frequencies, compared to probabilities and percentages as people are just poor at processing them.

Question 6

What is the conjunction fallacy?

Answer 6

Conjunctions of two events are rated as more probable than one of two events alone.

Question 7

What is the fast & frugal heuristic?

Answer 7

Simple rules for making decisions with realistic amounts of mental resources. ie. “take the best cue, ignore the rest”

Question 8

What is the recognition heuristic?

Answer 8

If one object is recognised and the others are not, then infer that the recognised object has the higher value with respect to the criterion.

Question 9

What is the go-for-the-easy-solution heuristic?

Answer 9

A difficult solution is more likely judged to be false than an easier solution as information that feels easier to process is more often assumed to be true.

Question 10

What is the dual-process mode?

Answer 10

System 1: Intutive, automatic etc
System 2: Analytical, controlled etc
System 1 generates intuitive answers that are checked by System 2. When the 2 systems produce different answers, there is subconscious conflict that makes people less sure about their answers.

Question 11

What is the utility theory?

Answer 11

In making choices, we seek to maximise utility. Gain as much of things we value, and avoid those things we don’t like.

Question 12

What is the omission bias?

Answer 12

People feel more responsible if death resulted from their action than from their inaction. Hence, they prefer inaction to action.

Question 13

What is the prospect theory?

Answer 13

People more sensitive to losses than gains. People prefer smaller but sure gain to greater but more risky gain.

Question 14

Are people more risk-averse when facing gain and more risk-seeking when facing loss?

Answer 14

Yes

Question 15

What is the sunk-cost effect?

Answer 15

Additional resources are expended to justify some previous commitment. The finding that individuals who have invested effort, time, or money to little avail tend to invest more resource in the hope of justifying the previous investment.

Question 16

How does syllogistic reasoning work?

Answer 16

2 premises followed by a conclusion.

Question 17

What is the belief bias?

Answer 17

People accept believable conclusions and reject unbelievable conclusions regardless of logical validity or invalidity.

Question 18

If A is true, then B is true (Valid or not)

Answer 18

Valid

Question 19

If B is false, A is false (Valid or not)

Answer 19

Valid

Question 20

If B is true, A is true (Valid or not)

Answer 20

Invalid

Question 21

If A is false, B is false (Valid or not)

Answer 21

Invalid

Question 22

What 2 classes of models do people use to reason?

Answer 22

1. Mental model approach
2. Dual process theory (heuristic-analytic approach)

Question 23

How are mental models used?

Answer 23

People use mental models to reason, where mental models represent possible states-of-affairs in the world. Represent what is true; ignore what is false.

Question 24

What are other aspects of mental model theory?

Answer 24

1. Working memory is needed to construct mental models.
2. Syllogistic reasoning is better for individuals with high working memory capacity.
3. People tend to create a single mental model. (principle of parsimony)

Question 25

What is informal reasoning?

Answer 25

Involves arguments based on one’s knowledge and experience, not based on logic so it is prone to error.

Question 26

3 factors influencing the strength of a conclusion

Answer 26

1. Degree of previous conviction or belief
2. Positive evidence is more impactful than negative evidence
3. Strength of the evidence

Question 27

What is base rate?

Answer 27

This is the generally expected probability of an event or outcome; it is often ignored when individuals make a judgement.

Question 28

What is the representativeness heuristic?

Answer 28

The rule of thumb that an object or individual belongs to a specified category because it is representative of that category; used in judgement and produces the wrong answer when it leads the individual to ignore the base-rate information.

Question 29

What is the recognition heuristic?

Answer 29

A rule of thumb used when a judgement has to be made between 2 objects; involves selecting the object that is recognised.

Question 30

What is the omission bias?

Answer 30

A preference for risking harm through inaction compared to risking harm through action; it is shown even when the balance of advantage lies in action rather than inaction.

Question 31

What is the framing effect?

Answer 31

The finding that decisions are often influenced by aspects of the situation that are irrelevant to good decision making.

Question 32

What is deductive reasoning?

Answer 32

A form of reasoning in which conclusions can be categorised as valid or invalid given that certain statements or premises are assumed to be true; conditional reasoning or syllogistic reasoning are forms of deductive reasoning.

Question 33

What is inductive reasoning?

Answer 33

A form of reasoning in which general conclusions are drawn from a sequence of observations; the conclusions are not necessarily true (like in deductive reasoning) but they can be evaluated via hypothesis testing.

Question 34

What is the matching bias?

Answer 34

Cognitive bias that involves favouring choices or making decisions based on perceived similarity or familiarity rather than objective criteria.

Question 35

What are mental models?

Answer 35

Used in reasoning, an internal or mental representation of some possible situation or event in the world.Q

Question 36

What is the principle of parsimony?

Answer 36

In deductive reasoning, the tendency to form only one mental model even when additional ones could be constructed.

Question 37

What is informal reasoning?

Answer 37

A form of reasoning that involves arguments based on one’s relevant knowledge and experience; prone to error and differs from deductive reasoning in not being based on logic.

Question 38

What is myside bias?

Answer 38

In informal reasoning, the tendency to evaluate statements in terms of one’s own beliefs and behaviour rather than one their merits.

Question 39

What is bounded rationality?

Answer 39

The hypothesis that people produce workable solutions to problems in spite of limited processing ability by using various short-cut strategies.