Judgement, decisions and reasoning Flashcards
What are judgments?
Evaluation of some sort of target content along a given dimension.
E.g., the niceness dimension
What are decisions?
The process of making choices between alternatives. Interacts a lot with judgments.
What is reasoning?
Drawing conclusions (based on evidence). Making inferences.
What processes are related in making judgements?
Inductive reasoning –> We induce conclusions from the available evidence. Inductions can vary in strength of evidence.
E.g., I’ve observed black crows, so all crows are black.
What is the difference between inductive and deductive reasoning? and how to they apply to the scientific method?
- Inductive reasoning –> inferences made given by available observations/ evidence
- Deductive reasoning –> Using rules of knowledge to interpret premises
*Scientific method uses both –> mostly inductive
Hypothesis –> inference (inductive reasoning)
Predictions –> deductive reasoning
What does the strength of inductive reasoning depend on?
Example of inductive reasoning: I’ve observed black crows, so all are black.
Representativeness of observations.
–> Have only observed crows in one area?
The number of observations.
–> larger sample = more reliable
Quality of observations.
–> Validity of data –> Did you manipulate what you wanted to study?
–> Converging evidence is stronger (evidence obtained by different methods indicates the same)
*Anecdotal evidence is not good evidence, but we tend to take it more seriously.
What are heuristics and what do we rely on them for?
Heuristics are shortcuts, rules of thumb that often, but do not always, give us the correct answer.
They are used in real life because we don’t have the time to check all our inferences.
What is the availability bias?
Availability bias –> If something comes to mind faster/ easily remembered, then it’s judged as more probable.
E.g., Words that start with ‘r’ are more common than words than words that have ‘r’ as the third letter. This is not true, but people think it is because it’s easier to remember words that start with ‘r.’
What are some consequences of using the availability heuristic?
- We often overestimate the likelihood of dramatic events
–>, e.g., plane crashes, increasing crime rate (when only mass shootings have increased), believing the economy is in recession. - Lead to attention to info consistent with bias –> illusory correlations
What are illusory correlations?
Erroneously concluding that A and B are correlated when they’re not.
In extreme cases, this leads to many stereotypes (oversimplified generalizations about a group or class of people that focus on negative aspects)
Explain representativeness and Tversky and Kahneman’s classic experiment.
If something is more typical then we identify it as part of a group faster.
Base rates –> How likely is x as a simple fraction of the occurrence of the event in a population? (general probability of x happening in a population)
Classic example (Tversky & Kahneman (1974))
–> Give a small description of a person
–> Ask people about their profession
–> People ignore base rates (percentage of people of each profession) and only consider typicality.
People can use base rates if you only give them base rates, but once you give them a description, they ignore the base rates and focus on typicality.
What are the consequences of the representativeness heuristic?
- Failing to realize that small samples are less representative.
–> Tversky & Kahneman (1974) –> estimate the likelihood that small vs large hospitals will experience more days with >60% male births.
–> Only 22% said small (correct answer) - Conjunction fallacy
–> People ignore that the probability of A and B is less likely than the probability of A alone - Confirmation bias
–>Favoring info that supports our beliefs/ hypothesis
–> Look for confirming and not disconfirming evidence
–> Wason (1960) –< guess the rule for a number sequence, participants took longer to complete the task because they were looking for confirming info instead of disconfirming info. - Myside bias –> evaluate evidence biased towards your beliefs/opinions
–> Lord et al., 1979 - People who already supported capital punishment rated articles that supported it too as better written than articles that didn’t support it and vice versa.
How are heuristics perceived in cognitive psychology and how does emotion play a role in them?
Heuristics are generally seen as cold cognitive effects –> just how cognition works.
Emotional/defensive factors –>
–> When presented with disconfirming information, in general, people believe even more in their original view –> impossible to explain with cold mechanisms
–> People believe that they are rational and fair
–> information silos –> groups of people that think like you.
–> Dunning-Kruger effect –> The less informed you are, the more confident you are in your opinions. When you learn more you realize the complexities of it.
What is the classic approach to decision-making (expected utility theory)? and what are some problems with it?
Expected utility theory
–> Assumes people are rational
–> Choose the option that will maximize the expected utility
–> But, often, our decisions (even monetary) aren’t rational (e.g., casino gambling)
–> Denes-Raj & Epstein (1994)
- People got a reward if they picked a red jellybean out of a jar.
- They were offered choices of jars: 1/10 or 7/100
- People picked 7/100 even though their odds were worse
If taking into account emotions in decision-making always bad?
No, in many cases it’s a good thing –> emotional judgments (e.g., what career to choose)
Prefrontal cortex damage impairs emotionally relevant outcome evaluation and causes impaired decision-making.
