judgement Flashcards
Desc and impact on reasoning
Availability Heuristics
▪ Illusory Correlations
▪ Representativeness Heuristics
▪ Conjunction Rule
▪ Confirmation Bias
Availability Heuristics:
Higher pobable events are more easily remembred =
Easily remembered even is less probable
▪ Illusory Correlations
Strong correlation between 2 events appears to exsist but does not = no correlation or weak.
▪ Representativeness Heuristics
Prob that A is a subset of B, by how well A resembles B = Similarity does not predict membership
▪ Conjunction Rule
A and B !> A = higher prob is assigned to the AND
Confirmation Bias:
Looking for infomation that supports a hypothesis and overlooking info that argues it = Narrow focus only on confirming infomation.
o Comparison of Deductive and Inductive Reasoning.
▪ Definitions of both.
Inductive Reasoning
= Predictions are based on familiar situations - make assumptions about the world based on
our specific experience
Deductive Reasoning=
In deductive reasoning, we determine whether a conclusion logically
follows from statements called premises