ICT Month 9 | 2016 Flashcards
When are Buying or Selling Probabilities for Daytrades the Highest?
- For day trades - the use of the Asian Range and Opening Price Are Key. Short above ASH, buy below ASL.
- The market will have a short term shift in “Sentiment” and less informed Traders will chase price on the impulse or initial swing intraday.
- Focusing on strict conditions like DAILY or 4h direction based on Institutional Order Flow and combining the PD Array Matrix for the next level objectives, will provide the highest probability setups.
When Order Flow on HTF (4h and D) is bearish where is SM going to sell?
primary looking for move above ASH and away from opening price [Protraction], Smart Money will sell above Asian Range High [Offset Distribution],
market will go typically above Asian Range High and that will many times suck in Street money [they buying on a breakout]
putting street money on wrong side.
When Order Flow on HTF (4h and D) is bullish where is SM going to sell?
Smart Money Buys below Asian Range Low and Opening Price.
moves below Asian Range Low trick Street Money into selling short [Selling on a break out]
putting street money on wrong side.
What is opening price?
0GMT or Ny Midnight Opening Price. → if the price at NY midnight has not moved a lot higher or lower away from 0GMT I can still use the 0GMT opening price, but primary focusing on NY midnight opening price.
How does proper daytrade for long setups look like?
- IPDA suggest a Daily or minimum 4h Discount Array is in play
- There is sufficient range in pips between market price & opposing Premium Array found on the Daily TF or minimum 4h TF.
- Price declines under the “Opening Price” [NY midnight] and the Asian Range Low
- Decline under the Asian Range Low should ideally be into a Logical Discount Array on the 15min TF.
- Price will not SPEND a lot of time at the Discount array on M15 TF. That is indicaiton of SM in play.
- The longer price stays or hovers around 15min Discount PD array - odds drop. Anticipate quick and dynamic reaction higher
- Short Term Sentiment would be most bearish when entering Long Trades. Use william%R 10EMA.
What is going to occur before any significant price move higher or lower?
Before every significant move higher or lower there is going to be a stop hunt as that is indication of the current directional move ending and new starting.
How does proper daytrade for short setups look like?
- IPDA suggest a Daily or minimum 4h Premium Array is in play
- There is sufficient range in pips between market price & opposing Discount Array found on the Daily TF or minimum 4h TF.
- Price rallies above the “Opening Price” [NY midnight] and the Asian Range High
- Rally above the Asian Range High should ideally be into a Logical Premium Array on the 15min TF.
- Price will not SPEND a lot of time at the Premium array on M15 TF
- Expect price to sharply trade lower away from the 15min TF Discount Array. Indication of SM in play.
- The longer price stays or hovers around 15min Premium PD array - odds drop
- Short Term Sentiment would be most bullish when entering Short Trades. Using William%R 10EMA
What are the market profiles in which market could be?
Consolidation, Expansion (retracement) or Reversal.
How can I trade the 15min late NY Session Stops?
This model is trading the late NY Session stops on Asian Pairs.
Buy Setup: During Asian session up to 12:00AM NY (NY midnight) scout short term lows in NY Session [very very Later New York session, going into the beginning of New York cross over into Asia; late New York for ICT is going into NZD and AUD open] → trading long after Asia purges the lows. Looking for a turtle soup long
Sell Setup: During Asian session up to 12:00AM NY (NY midnight) scout short term highs in NY Session → trading short after Asia purges the highs.
Not ideal as I am anticipating Asian range to be consolidation so not anticipating any crazy market volatility.
How can I trade the New Yokr Expansion.
Buy Setup: During NY session up to 10AM NY time scout for STL formed in New York Open - trading long after NY purges the lows while London Session posted Daily Low and 5 day ADR pending [not filled for the day yet] → London created the LOD and then rally higher; During NY price retraces into the London range, purging the STL on 5min TF and then runs higher; buying the STL [Turtle Soup Long] coming back for Short Term Sell Stops
Sell Setup: During NY session up to 10AM NY time scout STH formed in New York Open - trading short after NY purges the highs while London Session posted Daily High and 5 day ADR pending → London posted HOD; New York has retracement higher trading above M5 STH [taking out Buy Stops - Turtle Soup] and 5 day ADR low has not ben met yet.
PREMISE: I have to UNDERSTAND What LONDON has already DONE and looking for CONTINUATION in New York Session.
Ideal Scenario: Looking for a m5 low, let them break below the m5 low because they are tricking in Retail people to go in [taking out people that area already long AND tricking in SHORT sellers or breakout traders]
Good pattern for ES500, YM and NQ.
On which TFs should I be focusing on for high probability day trading AND what should I look on LTF?
Focus on D TF and 4h Order Flow directional bias. Preferably trading when both 4h and D TF are pointing in the same direction AND looking for consolidations in price on LTF. Consolidations on 1h or 15min TF may will build up new positions or build of orders.
When it comes to consolidation how will the SM think and how will the retail think?
- Retail: will look for breakout to establish a directional “BIAS”. Chasing after price
- SM: Will engineer or fade breakouts of a consolidation.
What does it mean Smart Money will engineer or fade breakouts of a consolidation?
Smart Money is NOT trying to FOLLOW price, it is going to allow price to go specific level. When IPDA trades to a specific Price level (key level) OR liquidity reference point OR PD Array AND it happens to be in agreement of a consolidation many times I will see a lot of Institutional Sponsorship on the Move that fades that very thing.
Where are retail trades buying and selling?
Retail Traders: Buys the previous low & Sells the previous high. Classical Support and Resistance. Buying support, selling resistance. Liquidity rests just above old high and below old low.
Where does Smart Money Buy and Sell?
Smart Money: Buys under old low & Sells above old high [Liquidity resting above and below].
What is occurring during consolidation?
When markets are in consolidation, understand that consolidation itself is allowing the Open Float [which is build up of orders above and below current market action - liquidity].
IF markets are trading in consolidation, that market price I want to be looking above short term highs and below short term lows where Buy stops and Sell stops would be.
When market moves into consolidation, the longer that consolidation the more orders are they allowing to build up [on both extremes of the consolidation]. As day trader I am not anticipating a LONG phase of consolidation.
Inside of consolidation what is being allowed?
Orders are allowed to stack up in terms of Breakout Orders, Trailed Stop Loss Orders etc… Creating great deal of NEAR TERM Open Float [liquidity]. Open Interest above market price and below market price will start to concentrate AND** I will have a lot of liquidity building above and below market price.**
How is the move outside of consolidation connected to D TF or 4h TF Bias?
When looking at Daily and 4h Order Flow the subordination to that in terms of price action, when consolidations occur, whatever the direction of Daily or 4h is that is going to be the direction of the move outside of the consolidation most often.
If price moves ABOVE consolidation taking out old high AND D TF and or 4h TF Order Flow is bearish that is the best scenario for going short and trading in consolidation.
How to anticiate break out of the consolidations when D&4h are bearish?
If D TF and or 4h TF Order Flow is bearish any move above the consolidation above an old high would be viewed as Smart Money knocking out Stops and accumulating short positions.
How to anticiate break out of the consolidations when D&4h are bullish?
If D TF and or 4h TF Order Flow is bullish any moves below the consolidation would be viewed as Smart Money accumulating the Sell Stops for move higher.
What is Retail and SM doing in terms of expansions that originate from EQ?
- Retail Traders: Chase expansions that originate from the Equilibrium [50%, Fair Value]
- Smart Money: Fade the expansion that originates from the Equilibrium [50%, Fair Value]
What does it mean SM is going to fade expansions that originate from the EQ?
When the market is bearish on the D TF and or 4h TF [in terms of IOF], this subordination factor is going to be seen on the LTF Charts (HTF has dominance over LTF). Where if there is consolidation and price starts to trade AWAY from EQ price point HIGHER, if it breaks a STH [idelly STH that is in premium] in an event of doing that many times RETAIL will see that as something bullish and they will look for expansions [ABCD - pattern].** Smart Money DOES NOT see that. They actually fade that and they are going to take price in the opposite direction (lower)**
Meaning any STH that is broken as price moves away from the EQ price point [50% of consolidation], they fade that as a short term stop run [turtle soup] and then they send price to the opposite extreme of the consolidation and just outside the consolidation range (for external range liquidity)
How would I trade the EQ price point when HTF 4h&D are bearish?
The Equilibrium, I want to see price moving expanding away from that. If the Daily or 4h is bearish and the Order Flow subordination on a LTF I anticipate any consolidations, any rally away [higher] from EQ that breaks a STH I will be looking to sell short. Retail is going to see that as BREAK in Market STRUCTURE [some indication of ABCD correction to the upside]
If the Daily or 4h Order Flow is moving lower and I see expansion away from EQ price point and it breaks the STH that is my Sell scenario [and vice versa for longs]. The retail support or old low is going to be targeted NEXT and MOVE below that.
If price created a turning point (swing high) - where is the liquidity going to be resting?
Understand if price turned at the old high liquidity is going to be just below that high for bearish OB OR go above that HIGH for liquidity resting above it in the form of Buy Stops.
How would I trade the EQ price point when HTF 4h&D are bullish?
When Daily and 4h Order Flow is bullish and I see expansion lower away from EQ price point and if I see a STL that is broken on a Expansion AWAY from EQ [meaning price trading into Discount and breaking STL inside of discount] I will see that as a run on Sell Stops AND NOT as Break in Market structure for lower prices. I see that as a sweep on stops to accumulate new longs and they are going to run for the other end of the consolidation or just outside of it for the liquidity for the buy stops [pair that up = order pairing; from SSL to BSL]
How does SM & Retail think when HTF is beairsh (4h & D TF) and price moves just above the old high of the consolidation.
When ever I see price in consolidation that is clearly definable and price takes out that CONSOLIDATION high WHEN Daily and or 4h is bearish, retail traders are seeing this as bullish breakout and they are going to be wanting to buy that. That buying [from retail], if they are surging into the market place as a buyer that creates perfect opportunity as a counterparty to us [SM]. Smart Money is going to be selling that breakout when Daily or 4h TF is bearish.
**So I want to see consolidations and then rally outside of that consolidation to entice retail or less informed traders to buy thinking they are buying strength WHEN that HTF [D TF or 4h] Order Flow is going to cause LTF to be subordinate to those HTFs [D TF or 4h TF]. **
LTF subordinate to HTF => LTF will follow what HTF is suggesting.
How does SM & Retail think when HTF is bullish (4h & D TF) and price moves just below the old low of the consolidation.
When the Daily or 4h is bullish AND on LTF price breaks down below the consolidation, RETAIL is going to see that as Break in Market Structure [weakness - indication of lower prices], they are going to look to sell short on weakness. Retail traders trying to sell that as a breakout entry for SHORT positions.
**Smart Money will see the opposite **of that if the HTF [D TF or 4h TF] is seeing bullish Order Flow. When I see this break below old consolidation, that is accumulation of sell stops in the form of pairing up their orders to go long.
LTS is subordinate to HTF.
Where is Retail Trader & where SM trader selling in regards to old high and old low?
- Retail traders are buying the old low based on Support theory
- Smart Money traders are buying the Sell Stops below an old low.
- Retail traders are selling the old high based on Resistance theory.
- Smart Money traders are selling the Buy Stops above an old high.
How does ICT like to buy at the consolidation low when 4h and D TF are bullish?
Inside of the consolidation [or Range] when the HTF [D TF and or 4h TF] is bullish, what ICT likes to anticipate is Traders seeing that OLD LOW [that has shown a short term little bounce] when price trades back down to that same equal low, RETAIL is going to be buying that PUTTING their SL just below that previous STL.
So when the retail traders see that they are trading that old low as classic support and resistance Theory, it does NOT work.
Price breaking below old low is what I anticipate and then when price trades down BELOW the previous low outside of the consolidation….
… that is where I am looking to be a buyer, buying up those Sell Stops WHEN again the Daily and or 4h is in Bullish Order Flow. That creates my Low Risk High Probability Entry.
If I am buying below old low or selling above old high where am I anticipating price to trade back to?
WHEN I am buying below old low or selling above old high I am looking for PRICE to return back to Equilibrium. I DO NOT anticipate or ALWAYS hold for the opposite end of the CONSOLIDATION. I have NO IDEA if that is going to occur [price trading for the opposite end of consolidation in this case old high]. Simply take the move back to EQ **because price when in consolidations is always going to want to gravitate back to Equilibrium [Fair Value]. **
When price is in consolidation how do I anticipate price trading in regards to old high, old low and EQ [Fair Value]?
Always when in consolidations anticipate price expanding away from EQ price point for the outside of the consolidation* [From internal to External] *BUT many times it will snap right back up into the middle of the range [EQ, Fair Value].
IF the Daily or 4h is bullish, even if we are going to drop lower AFTER price tapping Equilibrium, many times this will provide another opportunity to go long [OTE long] and have a tradable rally.
How does SM & Retail think when HTF is bearish (4h & D TF) and price moves just above the old high of the consolidation.
When the Daily or 4h TF Order Flow is bearish and on LTF I see price trad back to the old high WHEN it is in consolidation [on LTF]. Retail traders see that old high classic support & resistance theory, selling short right** at the old high** and putting their SL just ABOVE the previous high that was inside of the consolidation….
… they [Retail] have no understanding of order flow, how markets are building up liquidity around specific price levels AND no appreciation of HOW that liquidity is SOUGHT [from seek] after in price.
So when retail traders see old high tapped as their entry point I anticipate them entering, and then the build up of Buy Stops just above the previous high.
**When I wait for price to break above the STH, exercise patience. **I am looking for the consolidation breakout above a previous high AND when that happens do the same thing what Smart Money does by selling above. Scooping up those Buy Stops that Retail traders are going to be placing because there is going to be a build up of Buy Side Liqudity. So when price trades up there IPDA will permit opportunity for Short Sellers at the Bank level to pair their shorts with obvious level of Buy Stops that would be resting above previous high.
KEY here: HTF Daily or 4h is BEARISH
How will Retail think when HTF is bearish (D TF & 4h) and they see price moving higher from EQ breaking a STH?
When the HTF Order Flow [Daily TF or 4h TF] is bearish and price move moves away and higher from the EQ price point and it breaks a STH. Once the STH is broken retail is going to see that as Break in Structure looking to buy go long [ABCD formation] anticipating strength in this market.
How will Smart Money think when HTF is bearish (D TF & 4h) and they see price moving higher from EQ breaking a STH that is in premium?
Smart Money, we see that as opportunity to sell the expansion, because the subordination in the LTF charts are going to FOLLOW what is going to be dictated on the D TF and or 4h TF [what is occurring on LTF is dictated by the HTF].** If it is bearish Order Flow that I am seeing on D TF and or 4h TF and I am seeing consolidation on LTF I have to identify where EQ [50%, Fair Value] is and look for STH that are just above Equilibrium AND a rally above that.** Many times I will see that as ideal entry point for SHORTs once that STH is broken that is accumulation on Buy stops. If they run the Buy Stops in Bearish DTF or 4h TF environment that is where I look to GO SHORT….
…. and I am aiming for the Previous Low that creates the consolidation support [EXTERNAL]. Paring up our buying to cover our short with those individuals that have Sell Stops resting below an old low.
So what I am doing is I am pairing ORDERS just like the SM does at the BANK level using Institutional Order Flow from Daily TF and or 4h TF.
That STH could be in many cases the Asian Session High. Or it could be Previous Days High and either one of those scenarios would create a nice opportunity to go short as a day trade.
How will Retail think when HTF is bullish (D TF & 4h) and they see price moving lower from EQ breaking a STL that is in discount?
When the Daily TF and or 4h is bullish, Retail traders are going to see that as a sell opportunity in their mind by having the expansion lower that breaks below an old STL. They see that as Break in Support or A break in market strucutre. Selling Short on weakness looking for continuation for the low of the consolidation or break down in that market.
I anticipate price breaking the STL in Discount of the range and by them doing that I am going to FADE that whole move that breaks the whole STL. Retail sees that as an opportunity to sell short and again they are selling weakness.
That is opportunity for me to fade that and do the very opposite.
