Algorithmic Orderflow Flashcards
Notes on 4 videos of Change in State of Delivery.
What concepts should I look when determening Order Flow?
- Macro Interest Rates
- Pairing up global interest rates, strongest against the weakest
- Seasonal Tendency
- Buy Or Sell Program
- Short Term Bias
- State Of Delivery
Above listed are what ICT is generally looking at when he is watching the market price. When looking at intraday or even 5min considering this process.
What should I look on the Seasonal Tendency?
Determine when there is bullish seasonal and when there is bearish seasonal. Basically whne is there really one directional Seasonal tendency.
HOW DO I know if the Institutional Order flow is Bullish?
I look at up close candles and are they being traded thru with no effort if bearish OBs are being traded to the upside and down close candles that would be +OB is is supporting price and sending price higher. IF I see this two signatures then the Institutional Order flow is bullish.
What does it mean the state of delivery is on buyside?
Candles are expanding to the upside with the expectation to run into the levle sof Buy Side Liquidity.
What does it mean when state of delivery changes to sell side while HTF Is bullish?
State of delivery is on sell side as price is expanding lower. It is reaching for Sell Side Liquidity that would be resting lower in price.
When I have change in state of delivery meaning I have buy side delivery first and then it CHANGES in state of delivery into Sell Side delivery BUT it is OPPOSING my HTF direction THAT Is where opportunity is born.
Where is opportunity born?
When there is change in state of delivery into opposing direction as my HTF is suggesting.
Change in State of delivery it will be a small fractal pattern that I need to focus on. Once change in state of delivery occurs in the opposite direction as HTF is suggesting run the PD array matrix on the active dealing range and anticipate price trading lower to refil any imbalance or tap into the Key PD array and then continue trading in the intended direction.
What is IOF?
IOF is the underlying direction of inflows at the Institutional level orders. It is the highest probable direction of delivery in Price…. on the majority of near term candles.
When will IPDA look to generate Big Price Runs?
IPDA will look to initiate BIG BIG Price Runs when the IOF is Directional and when the State of Delivery has changed into opposing Order Flow.. at a Key PD array.
Where am I anticipating price to pause or go into consolidation?
- At the EQ of the dealing range
- At the Key Level on the HTF.
What can dealing range tell me?
Dealing range is determined by the high that most recently took out buyside liquidity and the low that most recently took out sellside liquidity.
SM will be allowed to sell in premium of the dealing range and it wil be allowed to buy in discount of the dealing range.
How should I grade my Price Swing?
If I am bullish frame it from the low where the price swing started and the high of the graded price swing should be the PD array that I am targeting.
If price is bullish on HTF and it comes back to the bullish BRK & BISI what is occuring?
When price comes back in contact with the bullish breaker it is also filling up the Imbalance and then it changes it state of delivery.
What is it changing to? It is changing it state of delivery to the Buy Side delivery.
Price is mitigating at that price point because breakers are mitigation. Anything that was held short and was not taken off prior to price run higher. Institutions will be allowed ot mitigate that loss to reduce the overall expousure of the risk.
Once the level is hit I can anticipate price continuing in the intended direction.
It is the same case occurring on M1 once I know the DOL.
What can occur at 25% swing grade while HTF is bullish?
Once price trades into the HTF Key level and at 25% swing grade I am NOT anticipating for price to colapse lower. I am looking at that price level and 25% swing grade and anticipating re-accumulation.
What is occuring when price forms the BISI and then trades back into it?
Buyside delivery only - forming the BISI - price will in future change it state of delivery to Sellside delivery only to trade back into BISI (where it was only Buyside delivery).
It is a change in state of delivery what is where the opportunity forms Algorithmically
Always think about the paint roller analogy. PRice is only offered on upside (BISI) but at some point it will have to come back to rebalance the area where there was no sell side delivery. Exactly this is occurring as price is returning back to BISI.
Once price rebalances the BISI that Change in State of delivery sets up a opportunity for Buying, because it has filled in a imbalance.
What can occur after price takes out a STH in regards to CSD?
Price traeds above the STH and then it has change in state of delivery.
What is it going? Offering Sell Side delivery coming back down. It will look to trade lower to rebalance any imbalances or inefficiencies in price. Rebalance and then continue trading higher.
So when price wicks above the STH and changes it State of delivery to sell side delivery it is running back to old area of orderflow. Which is the last down close candle before price took out the STH and it is a propulsion candle.
Which Imbalances in regards to graded price swing are most likely going to stay open?
At the 50% of the potential swing grade I am forecasting this is generally where price is going to consolidate - it can consolidate longer than it did at Original Consolidation.
At about 50% level there I am usually going to see a run on stops and If there is a Imbalance they tend to stay open.
Why would the Imbalance want to stay open? Because it acts like a breakaway gap or measuring gap AND they are better to stay open and not rebalance. This one should be left open.
Now if there is NO Imbalance at 50% level and there is a STL then I can anticipate priec si most likely going to drop below the STL and that would be a buying opportunity. Ideally taking out a STL and trading into PD Array.
Any Imbalances close to 50% of the graded price swing will tend to stay open.
What should generally occur at 75% graded price swing?
There is usually NO STOP HUNT at the 75% swing grade price should just simply rally higher into the HTF Objective.
75% price swing price should just rally into the HTF PD array anticipating no STOP HUNT.
BUT IF THERE IS A STOP HUNT I can buy that swing low and then anticipate price trading into the PD array but it might fail to get there, depends from the HTF.
Sum up the importance of 25%, 50% and 75% graded price swing
- 25% I can anticipate buying opportunity at a key PD array
- 50% usually consolidaiton and Imbalances tend to stay open, some kind of stop hunt usually
- 75% tends NOT to have a stop hunt and it tends to just run into the PD Array. Tends to create some type of OTE entry. If some sort of ITL or ITH tends to get broken at this grade I can anticipating for the market to have a deeper retracement before taking out the objective.
What are the key concepts that I should I look at when considering the hange in state of delivery.
Institutional Order Flow (IOF): The trader gauges bullish sentiment by observing the break of bearish order blocks (OBs) and the breaking of previous day (PD) arrays, which indicate a bullish order flow.
Market Maker’s Model (MMXM): When clear MMXM patterns are not visible, the trader refrains from trading and instead looks for simple price swings that are graded based on liquidity runs.
Graded Price Swings: The strategy involves assessing price swings at key levels—25%, 50%, and 75% grades. Each level has its significance:
25% Level: Forecasting buying opportunities.
50% Level: Often a zone of consolidation and potential imbalances. If imbalances are left open at this level, they may act as breakaway gaps, and the trader may anticipate a stop hunt. If price trades into an imbalance at this level, it could be an opportunity to buy.
75% Level: Typically, there is no stop hunt, and the price may consolidate or present an Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) pattern before quickly moving to the target. Aggressive stop loss management is required if a stop hunt occurs after reaching this level.
MMBM andMMSM: If neither the Market Maker Buy Model (MMBM) nor the Market Maker Sell Model (MMSM) is apparent, the focus shifts to graded swings for trading decisions.reference point and is the primary focus at the start of trading, as it can influence the direction of trades.s with the identified bullish or bearish bias. It also considers the nuances of algorithmic order flow, which can be observed across all time frames.
What should I determine first when sitting in front of the charts?
it is the DOL - Draw on Liquidity or where price should trade NEXT.
Which what stage of IPDA does Buy and Sell Program start?
Everything starts with consolidation.
Regards to Premium and Discount where do I want to be a buyer?
For me to be a buyer I want to see price come back to at least discount of the range. Meaning to the EQ or below EQ-
At EQ or in discount While HTF is bullish I could be a buyer.
Look below the EQ and identify the key HTF PD arrays.
What is three indians pattern?
It is a High Resistance Liquidity Run pattern. Price will for example make higher highs in order to accumulate more shorts above the highs and then it should trade lower.
HRLR is paired with delayed delivery.
What is displacement?
Price offering buyside delivery into the buy side liquidity are this means there was only buyside delivery offered and that is displacement.
Inside the displacement there was only buy side deliver ymenaing there was no opportunity for the sellers to sell at a lower price and it was all just buy side delivery.
