How effectively have president's achieved their aims Flashcards
What two things must we do when answering this question?
Understand the context of the presidency and understand how ambitious their aims were
What will we see about the relationship between these aims and the constitution?
That some of these president’s aims have been effected by the checks and balances within the constitution more than others’
What two things will president’s ultimately be judged on?
How well they fulfilled their campaign promises and how well they dealt with unexpected events
What forced Bush to shift his focus away from domestic policy, as he had intended?
9/11
How did Trump face two big issues at the same time in 2020?
He had to deal with COVID and the fallout of the death of George Floyd
What is it not always possible for a president to do?
Deliver on campaign pledges
What must we consider before making judgements about a president?
The difficulties they faced
How has the rise of partisanship since 1992 been damaging for the president?
It has made bipartisan cooperation much less frequent, which means that if the president faces divided government, their opportunities to pass proposed legislation will be limited
What can the ideological stalemate lead to in the extreme?
Gridlock and government shutdowns
What three main domestic policies did the Clinton presidency focus on?
Economic growth, affordable healthcare and expanding citizens rights
Why can the Clinton presidency be seen as a kind of abberration?
Because he did not have to deal with the Cold War like his predecessors and he did not have to deal with any major terrorist threats like his successors, so there was no major threat to global stability
Which former president was he advised by?
Nixon
Describe his healthcare aims
Achieving healthcare reform was supposed to be the jewel in the crown for the Clinton administration
What did Clinton himself say about this aim?
‘If I don’t get healthcare done, I’ll wish I’d have never run for president’
What did Kruse and Zelizer argue about Clinton’s success here in 2019?
That it was a daunting reform to pass, but the administration still deserves the criticism it gets here, as it failed to achieve its key aim
Why did Clinton not have a clear mandate?
Because he only received 43.3% of the popular vote
What was the main structural issue that got in the way of him passing the reform?
The fact that he only enjoyed unified government for the first 2 years of his presidency, with divided government making the reform impossible to achieve
Why was putting Hilary in charge of the reform a mistake?
Because he favoured someone who had no congressional experience of his VP Al Gore, who had congressional experience and deal making skills
Explain the problems with Hilary’s proposed reform
They were too divisive for congressional Ds to unite around. There were disagreements around the bureaucracy required to run the proposed healthcare system and the cost to small businesses, meaning she struggled to achieve consensus. Multiple committee chairs produced competing proposals and the Clinton proposal was never even voted on
Why is this seen as a wasted opportunity?
Because with a better organised and coordinated approach, given the fact that he enjoyed unified government, the reform could have been passed
What was it that caused the reform to fail?
While there were mitigating circumstances, it was ultimately overconfidence from Clinton
What can the lack of healthcare reform be seen as?
The greatest failure of the Clinton presidency
Describe his aim for economic growth
The economy was in a bad way when he came into office, so growth and deficit reduction were key priorities for him
List some of his economic policies
He focused on balances budgets, shrunk the size of the federal government, and signed a welfare reform bill that was harsher on recepients than many left wing Ds could stomach
Evaluate his economic reforms
They were successful economically, while politically his repositioning of the D party onto traditional R territory helped him win in 1996
What combination proved successful in reducing the deficit?
Spending restraints and tax increases on the wealthy
Give some statistics to show how this economic prudence proved successful
There was average economic growth of 4% per year compared to 2.8% per year in the Bush/Reagan years, creating 22.5 million jobs and reducing unemployment to a 30 year low of 4% in 2000
Give the critical view of his economic policy
While the numbers looked good, the economic recovery was unevenly distributed, with the gap between the richest and the poorest widening. Unemployment and poverty rates for ethnic minorities fell dramatically
Evaluate his economic policy
He cannot take all the credit as he inherited an economy that was already recovering, but his policies certainly helped and he will be remembered for a booming economy
Explain the aim of greater levels of protection and representation for civil rights
He aimed to increase levels of representation for minority groups within the government, protect civil rights and make the US a more racially inclusive and LGBT tolerant country
What was he determined to do with his judicial and executive appointees?
Make them ‘look like America’
Explain the underrepresentation of women and minority groups in government when he took office
The were just two women and two members of minority ethnic groups in the outgoing cabinet while in 1992 just 10% of the federal branch were from minority ethnicities and only 11% were women
Explain how Clinton helped rectify this
He created at the time what was the most diverse cabinet in US history, appointing two women and 6 men from minority ethnic groups and 4 white women to his first cabinet. He would later appoint the first female secretary of state, Madeleine Albright, in his second term of office
Explain how he made the judiciary more diverse
He appointed more black federal judges than there had been in the previous 16 years and three times as many female ones as in the Bush/Reagan years. He appointed the most hispanic judges on record
A record number of what type of people served in the WH during his presidency
Disabled people
What kind of rights was he a champion of as a social liberal?
Gay rights
What did he advocate for the end of as a result?
The ban of homosexual people in the military
What did he do when he faced determined opposition from the military and conservatives?
He told the defence department to follow the don’t ask, don’t tell policy
What was this policy?
A compromise allowing gays to serve as long as they didn’t disclose their sexual orientation
Evaluate this reform
While it meant they could still not be open about their sexuality, it was still a significant step forward,
Evaluate his success in terms of extending civil rights
He successfully increased representation of ethnic minorities of women and racial minorities in government and had some success in advancing gay rights in the military
What did he still face despite the fact that there was no Cold War or immediate threats to worry about?
Important foreign policy challenges throughout his presidency
What is it fair to say about Clinton when comparing him to other post 1992 presidents in terms of foreign policy?
That he faced the fewest foreign policy challenges
Where were his three main foreign policy challenges?
Russia, the former Yugoslavia and NI
Why did Russia remain a problem post Cold War?
It was a dangerously unstable nuclear power
Explain the success he had with Russia
He was successful in achieving good rapport with Boris Yeltsin and helping stabilise the country. He was able to secure $1.6 billion in aid to Russia to boost its economy and Yeltsin’s control on power. While he has been criticised for not achieving political or economic reform in return for the aid, the stability he created allowed Russia to stockpile all the nuclear weapons in the satellite states and avoid potential chaos. Compared to his predecessors, his dealings with Russia were on a smaller scale but still important
What military action did he authorise in 1998
The use of US troops in the UN bombing of the former Yugoslavia
Why was it wrong that he was initially criticised for this?
Because it transpired that the Serbian president had been waging a genocidal war which involved the murder of thousands of Croations and Muslims
Evaluate Clinton’s success here
The USA played a key role in ending the conflict and the atrocities associated with it. While some historians have commented that he could have got involved earlier, the end of the wars in the area and the subsequent peace can be seen as a success for Clinton
Describe his contributions in NI
He played a key role in ending the troubles, a violent political conflict that had been going on there since the 1960s. The signing of the GFA in 1998 was a great success that he deserves credit for his role in
Evaluate his success in foreign policy
He did not face the Cold War challenges of his predecessors or the terrorist challenges of his successors. His foreign policy was therefore smaller scale but he was still successful in helping stabilise Yugoslavia and Russia and in negotiating the GFA in NI
How does the economy show that Clinton was an effective president?
He oversaw balanced budgets and the economy grew for 116 successive months and unemployment fell to a 30 year low
How does the expansion of civil rights show that he was an effective president?
He created what was up to then the most diverse cabinet in history and championed gay rights by instructing the defence department to follow a policy of ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’. It was not as radical a change as he would have wished but it was still a success
How does foreign policy show that he was an effective president?
He was successful in bringing about stability in Russia and Yugoslavia and helping the NI peace process
How does affordable healthcare show that he was an ineffective president?
It was the top priority for the administration but the proposals were not even voted on in congress. His inexperience in working with congress and his overconfidence stopped the reforms from happening
Using Clinton as a case study, how must we evaluate whether a president was successful in achieving their aims?
We not to not just consider the number of polict areas in which they were effective or ineffective, but how significant these areas were to the overall presidency. For example, the failure in an area as important as healthcare might have been so big that you consider the whole presidency ineffective, despite numerous successes
Describe how 9/11 was a pivotal turning point for the Bush presidency
He went from a president not very interested in foreign policy to one who was determined to win the war on terror.
What other aims was he still keen to achieve?
A domestic policy programme of education and social security reform and tax cuts, all of which had been key manifesto aims
Describe the post 9/11 aim of the war on terror
To fight the war on terror both at home and abroad
What did he use of united government and a country behind him to do following 9/11?
Secure the votes in congress to begin a war on terror, which led to the invasion of Iraq
What was the war on terror about for Bush?
Protecting liberal and democratic values and the lives and property of Americans
What two major pieces of legislation did he pass around the war on terror?
2001 Patriot Act and 2002 Homeland Security Act
What did the 2002 Homeland Security Act do?
Created the department for homeland security
What did the 2001 Patriot Act do?
Increased security powers and allowed for mass surveillance of internet and telephone communications
Why was the war in Iraq significantly undermined?
Iraq was invaded on the basis that there were WMDs and it was later proven that there were none
Why did it not really matter that the actual invasion went smoothly?
The US struggled to set up an Iraqi government capable of suppressing the remaining armed resistance and Bush failed to make a persuasive case that the failed attempts to pacify Iraq had been worth the loss of life.
How did the war go against his policies as a fiscal conservative?
Because the war caused a huge increase in federal expenditure
How much did a Feb 2020 report by Brown university say the war in Iraq and war on terror had cost?
It said the Iraq War cost $2 trillion while the war on terror in general cost $6.4 trillion
Why can the creation of the department for homeland security be seen as a success?
Because it improved the US’s ability to defend itself from terrorist attacks
Which two counter terrorist measures remain controversial?
The executive order the create GB and the mass surveillance of internet and telephone communications
Why do critics disagree with these surveillance methods on constitutional grounds?
On the basis that it infringed upon personal freedoms (5th amendment) and the right to privacy (4th amendment)
Why is the war on terror contentious when we look back?
The Iraq war was based on false premises and US involvement in the Middle East has been expensive and arguably contributed to instability in the region, exascerbating the risk from terrorism rather than removing it
Describe the aim for education policy
Improving education for all children across the US
What allowed him to pass the No Child Left Behind Policy with relative ease in Jan 2002?
It was a cornerstone of his election campaign and with his congressional majority and huge personal popularity in the wake of 9/11
What did the Act do?
Major expanded the federal government’s role in education, with the new law mandating that the states test children annually between grades 4-8, using a national test. It required that children in failing schools be moved to successful ones and provided a 2% increase in federal funding for the poorest inner city schools. It tripled the amount of federal funding for scientifically based reading programmes
Why do Kruse and Zelizer argue (2019) that the policy received bipartisan support?
Because of the importance of education reform for many suburban voters
Give an example of this bipartisanship
Future R speaker John Boehner and veteran liberal senator Ted Kennedy both supported it
How did Ds and teachers criticise the policy?
By saying that it had been imposed upon schools and forced teachers to teach the test
What did conservative critics on the right of the R party say?
They disagreed with the massive increase in state involvement
What did a 2016 report from a bipartisan group of legislators from the National Conference of State Legislators (NCSL) conclude?
That the reforms had been a failure
Give the direct quote from the NCSL here
After all the national, state and district efforts to reform in the decade following the act, the US was not only outperformed by the majority of the advanced industrial nations, but also by a growing number of less developed nations
Evaluate his education reforms
Its important to recognise that he was attempting compassionate conservatism and was passionate about improving education for the poorest, but the reforms did still not improve education standards in the US
Describe the aim around major tax cuts
A centrepiece of his 2002 campaign had been to make tax cuts his major legislative priority
What two acts did he pass to do this?
Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act (2001) and the Jobs and Growth Tax Reconciliation Act (2003)
What was the combined effect of these acts?
They introduced tax cuts worth around $1.35 trillion
Why was he able to pass these two acts with relative ease?
Because he enjoyed a R majority in both houses and the policy ideologically appealed to the majority of his party
Why did his left wing critics argue against the act?
Because the cuts mainly benefitted the wealthy
How did Bush counter this?
Because he said the cuts would stimulate economic growth
What was Bush’s ideological reasoning behind the cuts according to Kruse and Zelizer in 2019?
He reasoned that the money which funded the tax cuts (surpluses from the economic boom during the Clinton years) was not the government’s money and that now he was in office he should give the people their money back
Evaluate the success of Bush’s tax cuts
He was successful in delivering, but questions remain over their effectiveness. While they did contribute to economic growth, but it was also argued that it was fiscally irresponsible to squander the economic benefits of the Clinton era at a time when military expenditure was increasing and the overall deficit was growing
Describe the aim of social security reform
In 2004 he made this his top priority and attempted to change the system by allowing individuals to divert a proportion of their social security tax into personal retirement accounts
Give a quote from Bush from where he justified this reform in his 2004 State of the Union address
‘Younger workers should have an opportunity to build a nest egg by saving part of their social security taxes in a personal retirement account. We should make the social security system a form of ownership for the american people
What was the problem with Bush’s scheme?
The existing system guaranteed a set amount, while his scheme would invest money into the stock market, which would have been less predictable
Why did the reform fail to pass?
With the Ds vehemently opposed and and in the face of public disapproval the Rs would not commit. The reform was not coherent enough and needed more planning before being presented to congress, much like Clinton’s healthcare reform
Evaluate his social security reform
He underestimated the difficulties he would face in passing the bill, as the administration had enjoyed three years of success and took the support of congress for granted. Even though he enjoyed united government, congress took no action on his plans for reform and his ideas failed to materialise
How does the war on terror show that he was successful in achieving his aims?
He created a homeland security department and increased mass surveillance to prevent another attack on the scale of 9/11
How does education reform show that he was successful in achieving his aims?
No Child Left Behind saw a 2% spending increase for inner city schools
How did major tax cuts show that he was successful in achieving his aims?
He was successful in delivering on his aim of $1.35 tax cuts
How does the war on terror show that he was unsuccessful in achieving his aims?
The Iraq War was based on a false premise and their involvement arguable made the region more unstable at a huge cost to the taxpayer
How does education policy show that he was unsuccessful in achieving his aims?
No Child Left Behind did not significantly improve education policy and the US continued to be educationally outperformed by the majority of other industrialised nations
How did major tax cuts show that he was unsuccessful in achieving his aims?
Critics argued that it was fiscally irresponsible to make such tax cuts at a time when government spending and the deficit was increasing because of the war on terror
How did social security reform show that he was unsuccessful in achieving his aims?
He underestimated the difficulties he would face in passing the bill, taking the support of congress for granted. Like Clinton’s healthcare reform, his proposals were not acted on by congress
What was one of Obama’s main aims due to the fact that he had inherited a financial crisis?
He wanted to stimulate the economy to prevent another stagnation like there was during the depression
What else did he inherit off Bush?
Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, having to decide what he would do with the war on terror
What else did he have ambitions to do?
Introduce affordable healthcare and reform immigration policy
What was his aim with healthcare reform?
He made affordable healthcare the centrepiece of his first term and was determined to learn from the mistakes made by Clinton here
Explain how Obama worked closely with D house speaker Pelosi
Her congressional experience and savvy proved invaluable in the persuasion process. It was her rather than Obama who realised how healthcare reform would be passed. She immediately rejected bipartisan cooperation with Rs, correctly predicting that the legislation would receive no R votes
Where did Obama’s success in passing healthcare reform come from?
His willingness to compromise on what he wanted and his willingness to delegate to those who could deliver for him
Explain how he compromised
The more radical public health insurance option was dropped
Explain how the 2010 Affordable Care Act was still successful despite this compromise
It still represented the most significant expansion of healthcare since the passage of Medicare and Medicaid in 1965. The law saw uninsured adults drop from 18% in 2013 to 11% in 2016, which McKay (2018) argues is a considerable achievement
List the limitations of Obamacare
It has necessitated a burdensome bureaucracy, led to increased premium costs for many and most crucially failed to help the poorest in society
What was the act a blend of?
Idealistic vision and grounded pragmatism
Why was Obama not able to achieve his aim of universal healthcare coverage?
Because the public option where the government would run its own insurance agency to compete with private ones was not politically achieveable as conservative Ds would not support it due to the potential costs
Evaluate his healthcare reform?
It was a significant achievement despite not being as radical as he might have wanted
Describe the aim of stimulating the economy
He promised that he would solve the financial crisis during his election campaign
What did the administration realise must be done when drawing upon history and the work of 20th century economist J.M Keynes?
That only a government stimulus package could prevent the economy from flatlining
What did the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act do?
Provided a huge $787 billion economic stimulus package
What was coupled with this stimulus package?
The Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform Consumer Protection Act (2010)
What was this act designed to do?
Reform banks and prevent excessive risk taking that had caused the initial crisis
What was contentious about the acts?
The scale of government intervention
What did he take advantage of to pass the legislation?
United government, as it received almost no support from Rs
What does economist Adam Tooze point out about the legislation (2018)?
All serious analysis has pointed towards it playing a positive role
What did Fareed Zakaria argue about the legislation in the New York Times (2018)?
That there were no real alternatives to the Obama proposal and that the Rs could sit on the sidelines criticising, knowing their own policy proposals would never be implemented
How was this idea substantiated in 2020?
Because the Rs supported something similar with the CARES Act when they were in power, which provided $2 trillion of economic stimulus
What was the R response to the Dodd Frank Act?
They criticised it as anti business and have tried to unpick it unsuccessfully
Evaluate the success of his economic policy
The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act played a pivotal role in allowing the US economy to recover from the crisis and preventing it from falling into a depression. While critics have argued that the Dodd Frank Act was too restrictive on the financial sector, forcing banks to hold onto more capital for security, it nonetheless provided more stability for the US financial system
Describe the aim of immigration reform
A key aim of the administration was the Development, Relief and Education for Alien Minors (DREAM Act), which would have granted temporary conditional residency and the right to work for qualifying immigrants who had entered the US as children. If they satisfied further qualifications, it could lead to full citizenship
Why did the DREAM Act fail to pass in both terms?
- Because he underestimated the hard line opposition from Rs and the more conservative Ds
- Despite again working through congressional leadership to try and persuade Ds who opposed the bill, but in a time of economic hardship when jobs were scarce, many could not be persuaded to support pro immigration policies
What did he do in Nov 2014 after congress had failed to pass any meaningful immigration reform legislation?
He issued an executive order - the Deferred Action for Parents of Americans and Lawful Permanent Residents (DAPA) - to allow certain immigrants to be granted deferred action status
What did this mean?
Although they would not be granted full citizenship, they would have been subject to an indefinite delay on their deportation. This would have allowed up to 5 million unauthorised immigrants who were parents of lawful residents to remain legally in the country
Why was this executive order unsuccessful?
Texas, along with 25 other states, challenges the action, eventually resulting in the 2016 US vs Texas case and SC ruling that struck down the order
Evaluate his immigration reform
The defeat of the DREAM Act and the US vs Texas judgement were both blows and represented a failure in this department. He had been checked by both congress and the judiciary
What did Robert Barnes say about the SC defeat in the Washington Post?
He described it as ‘the biggest legal defeat of the Obama administration’
Describe the aim of ending the war in Iraq
In March 2008, he declared, ‘when I am commander-in-chief, I will set a new goal on day one: I will end this war
What was he successful in doing in this regard?
Removing troops from Iraq
What have some of his left wing critics pointed out here?
That although he was successful in ending the war, he continued with a hawkish foreign policy strategy in which he oversaw a 2009 troop surge in Afghanistan and campaigns in Libya (2011) and Somalia (2016) in the war against Al Qaeda.
What was his first port of call in foreign policy?
Diplomacy
Give an example of this
His JCPOA with Iran
What was he not afraid to use if diplomacy failed?
Force
Evaluate his foreign policy
He was successful in removing troops from Iraq. While it can be argued that it still seemed too hawkish, given the situation he inherited he had little option but to continue the war on terror or risk complete destabilisation in the region
Explain how healthcare reform shows that he was a successful president
It was a considerable achievement made by not repeating the mistakes of the Clinton administration. Saw the number of adults uninsured for healthcare drop dramatically
Explain how stimulating the economy shows that he was a successful president
He successfully saw the US through the Great Recession with congress passing two major pieces of legislation essential to these plans: The 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act and the 2010 Dodd Frank Wall Street Reform Consumer Protection Act
Explain how ending the war in Iraq shows that he was a successful president
Successful in engineering a strategy that allowed them to exit the Iraq War
Explain how healthcare reform shows that he was an unsuccessful president
He had to compromise and sacrifice the more radical and expensive aim of acheiving universal healthcare coverage to ensure support from more fiscally conservative Ds
Explain how immigration reform shows that he was an unsuccessful president
He failed in the DREAM Act which would have allowed citizenship for the children of illegal immigrants. He underestimated the opposition within his own party to these reforms. His attempt to bypass congress through executive orders to extend the rights of illegal immigrants was struck down by the SC in the US vs Texas case in 2016
What will Trump’s term be remembered for?
The polarising nature of the three key events in his final year: COVID, BLM protests and the march on Capitol Hill
What were his three key campaign pledges?
Deliver tax cuts, repeal and replace Obamacare and build a wall between the US and Mexico
What was 2020 dominated by?
His attempts to manage the US through COVID
Describe his aim of tax cuts
He made cuts to individual and corporation taxation top election priorities
Why was passing his tax cuts not straightforward despite the fact that he enjoyed united government?
Due to a mixture of inexperience, arrogance and the chaos of his administration
Why did he manage to find an unlikely ally in the house speaker, Paul Ryan?
Because although he had opposed Trump’s nomination he realised it would be better for the party if he helped him
Why did Trump trust Ryan?
Because he made it clear that he was retiring in 2019, so there could be no ulterior motive
What does Wolff say about Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell’s attitude to Trump?
That his contempt for Trump was boundless, but he too saw the need to help the novice
What did their combined experience help to achieve?
The passage of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, with Trump largely a grateful bystander
Describe the act?
It was the biggest change to the nation’s tax code for 30 years, slashing corporation tax from 35% to 21%
How did Trump justify the act?
He said that the tax cuts would lead to an economic boom and that GDP would grow by 6%, while his treasury secretary argued that it would soon pay for itself
Describe the success of the policy
While the cuts did not see a 6% rise to GDP or pay for themselves, the cut to both individual and corporation tax did play a role in creating the booming economy that characterised much of his presidency. In Sep 2019, the unemployment rate fell to its lowest since 1969 and the unemployment rates either set a record for the lowest ever or matched the previous lowest rates for black americans, hispanics and people with disabilities. Trump could also argue that the cuts help fuel the growth in the stock market, with the Dow Jones rising by 67% from the day Trump took office to its peak in Feb 2020. While COVID saw employment drop and the Dow Jones drop from its previous highs, there is evidence that the cuts were successful in boosting the economy and decreasing unemployment
Explain how the policy was limited in boosting employment
It did little to change the number of americans working part time because they couldn’t find full time jobs, with this number staying at 4.7 million
Evaluate his economic policy
He was successful in passing the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, although this was largely due to Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell, who utilised all their congressional experience to pass the law. While the cuts did not pay for themselves or see the rise in GDP that Trump envisaged, they arguably contributed to the booming pre-COVID US economy
Describe his aim to repeal and replace Obamacare
This was one of his campaign promises
What did he promise in terms of healthcare as a presidential candidate?
‘Insurance for everybody’ and a ‘phenomenal healthcare plan’
Why did he fail with his healthcare reform?
As with Clinton, he failed to articulate a clear vision that the party could rally around, even with the able Ryan and McConnell working with him
Which three R senators gave Trump’s plans a blow?
Susan Collins, John McCain and Lisa Murkowski
How did they do this?
They broke ranks and refused to vote to repeal Obamacare without a coherent replacement programme
Evaluate his attempts at healthcare reform
He took the defeat in his stride, stating that ‘nobody knew healthcare reform could be this difficult’. This response left him open to ridicule, as American healthcare reform is notoriously complex. The disorganisation and dysfunction of the administration meant that it lost the chance to repeal and replace Obamacare during the two years of united government
Describe his aims on immigration policy
A key pledge from his 2016 campaign was to build a ‘big beautiful’ wall between the USA and Mexico to prevent illegal immigrants crossing the border
Evaluate his success with the wall
The campaign pledge promised a 2,000 mile concrete wall would be build on the border. The majority of the wall that has been built is not made of concrete but rather steel fencing. Even if one classifies the fencing as a wall, only 15 miles of it can be considered new, with the majority of the work being replacement or secondary barriers. While its true that 221 miles are under construction and 157 miles are under pre-construction, it is difficult to argue that the promise was delivered on. He also argued that Mexico would fund the wall and this has not been the case `
How much has the US had to spend on the wall?
The Trump administration wanted to spend $18 billion on it, including $4.4 billion allocated by congress for 2017-20 and a further $6.7 billion diverted from military spending and treasury department funds
How was Trump’s 2017 attempt to end the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals scheme a failure?
In the Department of Homeland Security vs Regents of the University of California case (2020) the SC ruled 5-4 that the programme had been improperly ended, therefore allowing it to be reinstated fully. The Trump administration was criticised for missing its chance to legislate against illegal immigration
How did his zero tolerance policy on illegal immigrations backfire?
It led to the separation of parents from children in 5,500 families and an international backlash that saw Trump sign an executive order to halt the separations in 2018
What did the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) scheme do?
Allowed undocumented immigrants who had been brought into the US as children to work legally in the US
List the successes in his immigration policy
- The 2019 Migration Protection Protocol, sometimes called the Remain in Mexico policy, forced migrants to wait in Mexico for their immigration hearings
- They made asylum cooperation agreements with the governments of central american countries to deport asylum seekers from those countries who tried to enter the US without first applying for and being denied asylum in countries en route to the US
- Implemented a new rule that required asylum seekers from central america to apply for Mexico rather than the US
- These policies were successful and resulted in a lower number of migrants apprehended by Border Control
Evaluate his immigration policy
His attempts to build the wall did not match the rhetoric of his campaign, and although some progress was made, the policy should be viewed as a failure. While the administration made some progress in curbing illegal immigration, particularly through his agreements with central american governments, the failure of the zero tolerance policy and the SC defeat of Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals in 2020 meant that he failed to solve the problem of illegal immigration
Describe the aim of managing the COVID crisis
This was a pivotal moment for the presidency as the initial aim of the adminsitration was to provide strong national leadership in managing and minimising both infections and deaths
What act did he pass in response in March 2020?
Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act
What did this do?
Gave an unprecendented $2.2 trillion of economic aid, which undoubtedly prevented the US economy from entering a deep recession
Describe Trump’s initial denial that there was a problem?
Like many western leaders he was slow to respond, dismissing it Jan and Feb as a Chinese virus that was not a threat to the US. However, by April, when it had its millionth case and 58,000 deaths, both Trump and the administration seemed to be in denial about the shear scale of the problem, with Trump arguing that the virus would be gone by the end of the month
What was this denial compounded by?
An inability to communicate a coherent national response
What had to happen as a result of the fact that there was not a swift federal response?
State governors used federal powers to determine policy within their own states
Give two governors who drew praise for their swift response to the crisis
- Andrew Cuomo (NY)
- Mike DeWine (Ohio)
Give some statistics to show how lethal the virus was for the US
- From the 3rd January 2020 to the 25th March 2021, the US had over 30 million cases and nearly 550,000 deaths
- They ranked 9th in the world for per capita COVID deaths
How did Trump make the issue worse in his 2018 budget cuts?
He dissolved the Directorate of Global Health Security within the NSC, whose remit included dealing with pandemics
Why was he criticised for this?
Health experts had been predicting that it was inevitable that the world would be hit by a pandemic and so it could be argued that the decision was short sited
Who was Trump openly at odds with during the crisis?
One of the leading members of his own covid task force, Anthony Fauci
Evaluate his response to COVID
Cannot be described as a success. The decision to dissolve the Obama created Directorate for Global Health Security, the slow reaction and the poor response compared to the G7 countries in terms of cases and deaths are all indicative of poor handling of the crisis. He failed to determine a direction for the nation and so the states came up with their own lockdown policies independent of the federal government. Despite the swift passing of the CARES Act and the low level of cases that lead to deaths, in comparison to other countries, lots of Americans disapproved of how Trump handled the crisis
How do taxes and jobs show that he was successful at achieving his aims?
The 2017 Tax and Jobs Acts was the biggest change to the nation’s tax code in 30 years, slashing the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%. In Sep 2019, US unemployment fell to its lowest since 1969
How does immigration show that he was successful at achieving his aims?
Policy agreements with central american countries were successful in reducing the amount of migrants illegally trying to enter the US
How does the swift passage of the CARES Act show that he was successful at achieving his aims?
Persuaded a divided congress to pass it quickly, preventing the US economy from falling into a deep recession
How do taxes and jobs show that he was unsuccessful at achieving his aims?
He argued that the tax cuts would lead to an economic boom and 6% GDP growth, while the treasury secretary argued that it would pay for itself. Neither of these things happened. While unemployment hit a record low, there was little change in the number of americans working part time because they couldn’t get full time work
How does repealing and replacing Obamacare show that he was unsuccessful at achieving his aims?
It lacked a clear vision for this and this lack of clarity led to an R senate failing to back the administration’s plans. Like Clinton, he underestimated the difficulty of passing healthcare refom
How does the wall show that he was unsuccessful at achieving his aims?
He failed to build a wall across the US-Mexico border. Only 15 miles of new fencing was built with the majority of the building work being replacement or secondary barriers
How does the management of COVID show that he was unsuccessful at achieving his aims?
Slow to recognise the danger of the virus and failed to communicate a national response. It was severely affected in terms of total fatalities
What was so appealing about his message in 2016?
Because he promised to go to Washington and ‘drain the swamp’, shake things up and tell it like it is
Why did he think he was the only person who could MAGA?
Because he was a businessman rather than a politician and claimed that only someone with his disruptive, outsider approach could get things done
When did he lose the house?
Nov 2018
When did he lose the presidency?
Nov 2020
When did he lose the senate?
Jan 2021
Why is this so significant?
He was the first present since Herbert Hoover (1929-33) to lose all three in his first 4 years in office
What was his main flaw?
He did not conform to the democratic norms of american government and no one who did stayed in his circle for long
What did he think he could do to succeed in the Oval Office?
Use division and disruption as he had done in his media and business careers
Describe how he saw the presidency as belonging to him
The military were ‘my generals’, federal judges he appointed were ‘Trump judges’ and the attorney general for the US was his own personal lawyer. He demanded unquestioning loyalty from all in his circle. Those who he regarded as disloyal were fired if they didn’t resign first
List the factors that assist the president in achieving their aims
United government
Clear focus
The power of persuasion
The ease of the aim
Reacting well to a crisis
List the factors that hinder the president in achieving their aims
Divided government
Lack of focus
The failure to persuade
The difficulty of the aim
Reacting poorly to a crisis
Explain how unified government helps a president achieve his aims
This is especially important in the era of party polarisation. Since 1992, W. Bush has enjoyed the highest proportion of unified government, which made it easier to persuade congress and achieve his aims
Explain how clear focus helps a president achieve his aims
The president cannot take congress’ support for granted even if it is unified in a time of party polarisation. Presidential legislation needs to be clearly focused so that members of the president’s party in congress will support it. Bush was able to do this with No Child Left Behind (2002) and Obama was with the Affordable Care Act (2010)
Explain how the power of persuasion helps a president achieve his aims
Presidents must use their powers to bargain and persuade in order to achieve their policy goals. Obama was able to achieve healthcare reform because he sacrificed the more radical elements to secure the support of more conservative Ds who were concerned about the cost of reform. Bush was able to persuade congress to pass the 2001 Patriot Act and the 2002 Homeland Security Act in response to 9/11, while Trump persuaded a divided congress to pass the CARES Act in response to COVID
Explain how the ease of aim helps a president achieve his aims
Some objectives are easier to achieve than others. Clinton’s foreign policy challenges were far less than that of his successors, so it was easier for him to be successful here. Likewise, increasing representation and protecting civil rights were policies he could achieve using presidential powers and needed no congressional approval
Explain how reacting well to a national crisis helps a president achieve his aims
In times of national crisis, the president has to react quickly, decisively and effectively to succeed. While the long term consequences of his actions remain a source of debate for historians, Bush did react quickly and decisively with his war on terror policy response in the face of 9/11 which in forms foreign and domestic policy today. Obama responded quickly and effectively to the financial crisis that engulfed the world at the start of his presidency
Explain how divided government hinders a president’s ability achieve his aims
Party polarisation makes bipartisan cooperation extremely difficult, so in times of divided government president’s will find it hard to persuade congress to pass legislation that will help them achieve their aims. Since 1992, Clinton faced the highest proportion of divided government, frustrating his attempts to pass major legislation
Explain how lack of focus hinders a president’s ability achieve his aims
If legislative proposals from the president lack focus, it can be difficult to persuade even a united congress, especially on controversial measures. Bush discovered this with his failure to pass social security reform, and both Clinton and Trump faced this with healthcare reform - with Clinton having to face the humiliation of a united government not even voting on his proposals
Explain how failure to persuade hinders a president’s ability achieve his aims
Divided government and lack of focus can blunt the ability to persuade. Presidents sometimes underestimate the difficulty of achieving their aims, as both Clinton and Trump did with healthcare. Bush fell into a similar trap with social security reform and Obama underestimated D opposition to immigration reform
Explain how difficulty of aim hinders a president’s ability achieve his aims
Sometimes aims are extremely difficult to achieve and this should be considered when assessing success or failure. Obama faced significant challenges in managing the financial crisis and passing healthcare reform. Trump’s promise of a border wall was extremely ambitious that would have required two terms to have any chance at success
Explain how reacting poorly to a crisis hinders a president’s ability achieve his aims
They can misjudge the severity of a crisis and react slowly, indecisively and ineffectively. Bush did this in response to Hurricane Kutrina in 2005. Trump mismanaged his response to COVID, failing to react quickly enough or produce a coherent national response that the nation could unite around. This was an important factor in his defeat to Biden
How did Trump show autocratic tendencies?
His disregard for the constitution, his use of private properties for government business and being reimbursed by the federal government for doing so, his using military force on peaceful protestors outside the WH in Jun 2020 so he could do a photo op and his closeness to autocratic leaders like Putin in Russia
What did he attack the media as being?
Enemies of the people
What did he attempt to interfere with
The conduct of justice and the independence of the judiciary
What did his dog whistle statements reveal?
Sympathy for white nationalists and right wing extremeist groups
What are dog whistle statements?
Political phrases subtly disguised to appeal to a certain brand of voters
How did his clear disrespect for the conduct of free and fair elections become apparent even before the 2016 GE?
He refused to say categorically that he would accept the result if he lost
What did he allegedly try and solicit from the Ukranian government while president?
Damaging info about Joe and Hunter Biden
What did this lead to?
His first impeachment
Why was the first TV debate in controversial in 2020?
He was accused of rudeness towards Biden and the moderator
What was ‘the big lie’?
That the 2020 election had been stolen from him, a claim that he repeated for weeks without producing any evidence
What did this lead to?
The ‘Save America’ rally outside the WH on Jan 6, with his supporters storming the Capitol building during the formal counting of the electoral college votes and then to his second impeachment a week later
How many lives of Americans did his handling of COVID cost?
400,000
List his successes
Addressed illegal immigration, appointed three SC justices, delivered tax cuts, did lots for deregulation and for the first three years of his presidency the economy boomed
What unfair attitude to many take to Trump?
Laying all the blame for the political rancour and bitterness during the last few months of his presidency at his door
Why does the R party deserve as much blame as Trump?
It had already been travelling down a far right path long before Trump. Newt Gingrich, the Tea Party Movement, Sarah Palin - all helped pave the way for Trump’s takeover of the R party, not to mention his vocal cheerleaders and silent enablers. As well as the deeply flawed candidate selection process that allowed Trump to gain the presidential nomination of a major party
