Elections Flashcards
What is an invisible primary
Takes place years before the official primary and is the period where candidates will get noticed and recognised and raise funds etc. Period of time between the first candidate announcing their intention to run and the first primary
What do voters have to decide before they vote in primaries
Whether they will vote in the D of the R primary
When the the primaries and the surrounding debates take place in election year
Jan-Jun
When do candidates tend to announce their running mate
July
When will parties finalise their choices
Aug
When will the presidential election campaign take place
Sep-Oct
When does election day occur
Nov
When is inauguration
Jan
What three personal qualifications do presidents have to meet
- Over 35
- Natural born US citizen
- 14 year resident
What is the maximum term limit
2 terms
What does the invisible primary allow candidates to do?
Raise funds
Garner public support
Check poll numbers and see if its worth doing
Crucial stage for the campaign because candidates who raise the most money appear the stronger and will raise even more money from those who will likely win
What might cause a candidate to pull out during the invisible primary stage
Some people say their going to run and see that nobody is going to vote for them or raise no money so pull out
What will lots of candidates publish and why?
A book about their ideology to see if it sells
List some of the functions of the invisible primary
name recognition, raise money, dominate the media and newspapers, in depth interviews, prominent talk show, social media presence, announce candidacy, TV debates, raise funds, become the front runner
How has the financial landscape changed in a way that makes invisible primaries necessary
Presidential election campaigns are more expensive so it would be impossible to raise sufficient funds without them
Give some examples of candidates who led throughout the invisible primary and ended up becoming the candidate
- John McCain in 2008
- Mit Romney in 2012
Give some examples of candidates pulling out early
2005 Ron Paul, Herman Cain and Michelle Bachmann got no coverage and quit early
For what reason is Nate Silver more sceptical about the purpose they serve
He says that often parties have no choice such as Romney in 2012 and Clinton in 2016
What does Jay Cost say to reinforce his point that they do not serve a valid purpose
‘You may generate plenty of noise in an invisible primary, but nominations are decided by delegate shares, not decibel levels’ (Jay Cost)
Trump didn’t get much funding but was still successful. Why was he an anamole?
Because he had the funds to self finance
Why can the invisible primary be seen as more purposeful for Ds
Because it is a 50/50 chance whether the front runner gets selected, but for the Rs the front runner generally becomes the candidate
Why 2008 an example of this
Because Clinton led but Obama won
When will an incumbent usually announce their intention to run again if this is what they want to do?
Halfway through their first term
When did Trump do this
On his first day in office
When will challengers to the incumbent generally announce their intention to run
A year before the first primary
What demonstrates support during the invisible primary
Opinion polls
When was the 1st presidential election held?
1788
Where is the idea that presidential elections occur every 4 years laid out
Article II
How does federal law get even more specific about when they should be held
The Tuesday after the first Monday in Nov, which means the election occurs between 2-8 Nov
List the 7 stages of presidential elections from first to last
- Invisible primary
- Primaries and caucuses
- Choosing VP candidates
- National party conventions
- GE campaign
- Election day
- Electoral college voting
List the functions of the invisible primary stage
- Candidates announcements
- Increasing name recognition
- Fundraining
- Intra party TV debates
List the functions of primaries and caucuses
- Show popular support for candidates
- Choose delegates to attend national party conventions
When does the primary/caucus stage occur?
Jan/Feb - early Jun
When are the VP candidates chosen
Days/weeks before the convention
What functions do national party conventions serve
- Confirm presidential and VP candidates
- Approve party platform
- Acceptance speech delivered by presidential candidate
When does the National Party Convention occur
July/Aug
How long do they usually last
4 days
What purpose does the GE campaign serve
Campaign between the candidates of the various parties
When does it occur
Sep, Oct and early Nov
What function does election day serve
Registered voters go to the polls, although some may have engaged in early voting
What function does electoral college voting serve
Electors vote in their state capitals to choose president and VP
When does electoral college voting take place
Monday after the second wednesday in Dec
What are the first 4 stages concerned with
Choosing presidential candidates
What are the last 3 concerned with
Electing the president
Who was the youngest ever president
Theodore Roosevelt, who was just 42 when he became president following the assassination of William McKinley in 1901
Who was the youngest ever elected president
JFK, who was 43
What was the constitution amended to do in 1951
Limit the president to two terms in office. This added to the three pre-existing requirements; not to have already served two terms as president
Who are the 5 presidents who have felt the impact of this constitutional amendment
-Eisenhower
- Reagan
- Clinton
- GWB
- Obama
How is the way that party candidates are chosen different from the UK
In the UK, parties choose their own candidates, whereas in the US they are chosen by ordinary voters
Where does the term invisible primary come from
Originally the title of a book by WH journalist Arthur T Hadley
What is there a high correlation between within invisible primaries
The person leading the polls at the end of the invisible primary and who actually wins the nomination
Where does the invisible primary mainly take place
The media
How will candidates therefore use the media
- They will hope to be mentioned as a serious presidential candidate is publications such as the Washington Post and the NY Times
- Might hope for a positive article in Time Magazine
- Might be offers of an in depth interview on such serious political TV programmes as Face the Nation (CBS), News Hour (PBS) or one of CNN’s political talk shows such as State of the Union with Jake Tapper, or The Situation Room with Wolf Blitzer
- Increasingly use social media such as Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, Snapchat and TikTok
When did the modern primary system debut
1976
Who broke the record for the earliest official candidacy announcement
D congressman John Delaney broke the record by announcing in Jul 2017
How many candidates announced for the 2020 D candidacy
29
When did Biden announce his candidacy
April 2019
What does Delaney’s early announcement show us?
Given that he dropped out 3 days before the first contest in the nomination race, the Iowa caucuses, an early start to your campaign is no guarantee of success
Describe the importance of polls during election campaigns
Regularly reported by the press. May be based on a certain state while others are regional. Some polling organisations may conduct a nationwide poll. They may run head to head matchups to see how members of one party might fare against candidates of another party. In 2019, polling organisations published frequent head to head matchups between Trump and the D frontrunner candidates, Biden, Sanders and Warren
How were the 2020 D televised intra party debates important
Highlighted the differences between the moderate and progressive wings. It can also get personal. In the 7th debate Warren and Sanders debates over whether Sanders had ever said that a woman could not be president. She refused to shake his hand afterwards, accusing him of calling her a liar on national TV
Who were the two candidates left standing in the final debate
Biden and Sanders
Why can this final debate be called unproductive
They were a media circus and little serious policy debate occured. This has been a common problem for candidate debates in recent history
What did Ben Carson, an unsuccessful candidate in the 2016 R candidacy race say to support this
This format is not the best for convincing anyone of anything. We’re dealing with soundbites instead of being able to discuss anything in detail. Unfortunately that’s a characteristic of the society we live in today
What does a candidate need to accumulate enough of during the invisible primary stage to be taken seriously
Funding
How is raising money at this early stage a virtuous circle
Brings the ability to campaign and advertise, which brings improved poll ratings, which brings further funding
Give some examples of candidates who were able to self finance
- Trump in 2016
- Michael Bloomberg in 2020
Where do most candidates raise their fundraising from
Individual donors or interest groups
The 2020 D primaries were the most expensive in history. How much did the candidates spend combined?
Over $1 billion
How do the 2020 D primaries prove that raising the most money is not everything
Michael Bloomberg spend $409 million and didn’t even make the final two, whereas Biden only raised $116 million
What is it important to end the invisible primaries as?
The front runner in the polls, as traditionally this candidate is the one that will be confirmed by the party
How did the 2016 election cycle reflect this trend
Clinton and Trump were both confirmed after being the early front runners. By the end of the invisible primary in Jan 2016, Clinton enjoyed a 14 point lead over Sanders and Trump enjoyed a 16 point leader over Cruz. The invisible primary showed itself again to be the critical stage in deciding who the eventual presidential candidate will be
Make the case that popularity is more important than fundraising during the invisible primaries
By the end of it Biden was ahead in the polls and had secured the endorsement of 46 D politicians, twice that of next best Sanders. When it came to fundraising Sanders was well out infront in terms of funding with Biden trailing in 5th out of all candidates in this regard. Although sometimes dubbed the ‘money primary’, the evidence suggests that a superior war chest is no predictor of success at this stage. The popularity of the candidate with party insiders and the public seems to count for more, or at least did in the 2019 election cycle
What stage is next after the invisible primaries
The primaries and caucuses
What is a presidential primary
State based election to choose the party’s candidate for the presidency. Shows support for candidates among ordinary voters
What is a presidential caucus
A series of state based meetings to choose a party’s candidate. Attract unrepresentative and low turnouts
What do more states use out of the two
More states use primaries than caucuses
What type of states usually use caucuses
Tend to be geographically large but thinly populated
Give some examples of states like this that hold caucuses
- Iowa
- North Dakota
- Nevada
How many states did the Rs use caucuses in in 2016
10
How many states did the Ds use caucuses in in 2016
14
How much did D usage of caucuses decrease in 2020
They held them in just 4 states
List these 4 states
- North Dakota
- Nevada
- Iowa
- Wyoming
How do caucuses favour ideological candidates
Would be voters must attend a meeting rather than go to a polling station. Turnout is generally low in caucuses than in primaries, and those who turnout are disproportionately more ideological than primary voters
Give some statistics to prove that caucuses favour ideological candidates
In 2020, just like in 2016 Sanders had some of his strongest showings in caucuses, where he won 2 of the 4 and beat Biden in 3
How does the 2020 D Iowa caucus show that the days of caucuses might be numbered
Took place on the 3 Feb but the results were delayed by 3 days mainly due to a coding error in a newly created app that was ironically created to speed up and simplify the process. Democratic National Committee chair demanded a full check of the votes. It then turned out that some votes had not been counted. The results were verified 3 weeks after voting took place. The chaos casued the resignation of local party chair. Both in terms of picking the eventual winner (Biden came 4th) and providing swift and clear results, the Iowa caucuses performed badly
What are the two specific functions primaries have?
- Show the popularity of presidential candidates
- Choose delegates that go to national party conventions
Why is there a great number of variation in how primaries work?
Because they are run under state law
How do states have flexibility over the timing of the primaries
They can decide when to hold their primaries. National parties usually lay down the earliest and latest possible dates - often mid January to the beginning of June
What do states such as New Hampshire do?
Schedule their contest early and on a day when no other primaries are being held, hoping to give their primary a certain prominence
What is a regional primary
Some states deliberately arrange their primaries to coincide with those of neighbouring states
What is super tuesday
A tuesday in Feb or early Mar when a number of states coincide their primaries and caucuses to try and gain influence
How many states participated in super tuesday in 2020
14
When was the first super tuesday held
1988
Why was it done
Attempt by a block of southern states to increase their importance in the selection process
Why are an increasing number of states moving their primaries to earlier in the year
Because they believe that earlier primaries have more influence over candidate selection
What is this move to early scheduling called
Front loading
Define front loading
The phenomenon by which a state schedules primaries and caucuses earlier in the nomination cycle to try and increase their influence
What two types of primary are there
Closed and open
What is a closed primary
A primary where only registered Ds can vote in the D primary and only registered Rs can vote in the R primary
What is an open primary
A primary in which any registered voter can vote in either primary
What are voters in some states asked to do when they register
Declare their party affiliation - whether you consider yourself a D or an R
Open primaries allow what is called cross over voting. What does this mean
Ds can opt to vote in the R primary and vice versa
What happened in 2012 Wisconsis R open primary
11% of voters said they were D. Mitt Romney won the primary closely beating Rick Santorum, but among Ds Santorum beat Romney by 20 points
What two possible things could these D voters have been doing here
- These were conservative Ds who genuinely preferred Santorum’s policies to Obama or Romney
- They were deliberately casting a tactical vote for someone they perceived as an easier candidate for the D nominee to beat
What is a modified primary
Allows those who have registered as independents to vote in either primary, but otherwise closed primary rules apply
What are proportional primaries
Primaries can also be classified according to how delegates to the national party conventions are chosen. In most primaries, candidates win delegates in proportion to the votes they get. Most states set a threshold - a minimum % of votes a candidate must receive to get any of that state’s delegates, usually 10 of 15%. All D and most R primaries are now proportional primaries
Describe the attention the primaries get in a party where the president is running for re election
They go on with little to no coverage
How do presidents going for re election have an easy ride in the primaries
Some states don’t even bother with a primary. Incumbent presidents are usually renominated by their parties with no opposition
Give some examples of states that dispensed of the R presidential primary completely in 2020
Arizona and South Carolina
What kind of challenge did Trump face in 2020
Bill Weld and Mark Sanford, both of whom barely registered with either public or party and were never serious in contention for nomination
What is a national party convention
Meeting held every 4 years by each of the big two to select presidential and VP candidates and agree the party platform
Why are they not just limited to the big two
Sometimes third parties will hold them
When will they be held
July, Aug or early Sep
How long will they generally last
3-4 days
Who will traditional hold the convention first
The challenging party
What did COVID mean for the 2020 national party conventions
They were largely virtual
Describe how the D conventions were affected
It was postponed by a month, was held in Milwakee as planned but on a smaller scale, with most speeches being delivered remotely
How was the R convention affected
Originally scheduled for Charlotte, North Carolina, and was then going to be moved to Jacksonville, Florida,, when Charlotte’s city authorities denied Trump’s request for the convention to take place with a full crowd and without public health measures like social distancing. When Jacksonville also proved unfeasible due to public health concerns, the Rs held the first day of their convention, including the formal nomination in Charlotte with under 330 attendees, and subsequent days in Washington DC including many pre-taped speeches
What three formal functions do national party conventions carry out
- Choosing the party’s presidential candidate
- Choosing the party’s vice presidential candidate
- Deciding the party platform
How is the result of the presidential candidate that will be chosen a foregone conclusion
In theory, the conventions choose the candidate in a roll call vote, in which each state’s delegates announce which candidate they wish to vote for. In the pre reform days, delegates came to the convention and made up their mind in the convention hall, but these days the vast majority of delegates arrive as committed delegates, which means they are committed to vote for a particular candidate in the first ballot if the candidate is till in the race. As the number of committed delegates is known beforehand - because it is decided in each primary or caucus, the result of the convention ballot to choose the candidate is virtually a foregone conclusion
What must a candidate receive to gain the party’s nomination
An absolute majority of the delegate votes
How healthy was Biden’s majority in 2020
He had the support of 2,687 delegates, easily exceeding the 1,991 to secure the nomination
The convention does not choose the candidate. What would be a more accurate term to use instead
It confirms the candidate
What was the last year in which a candidate was in doubt going into the convention
1976
Explain this controversy in 1976
Ford defeated former governor of California, Reagan, by 1,187 votes to 1,070. Had 60 delegates switched from Ford to Reagan, Reagan would have won
What happens if no candidate gains a majority on the first ballot
Balloting continues until one candidate does, in what is called brokered convention
What is brokered convention
A national party convention in which no candidate achieves sufficient delegates during the primaries and caucuses to have an absolute majority on the first ballot
What happens to delegates during these subsequent ballots
Delegates become free agents, no longer required to vote for a certain candidate
Why do party leaders not want this to happen
Because it would lead to an open display of factionalism and intra party warfare, when party conventions are supposed to be about public positivity and making headlines for all the right reasons
What has happened to the conventions role in choosing the VP over the last two decades
This functions has been lost
Explain how this functions has been lost
No longer even the forum for announcing a running mate, the last time this happened was in the 1988 R convention. Harris was announced as Biden’s running mate a few days before the 2020 D convention
What is the party platform
Document containing policies that the candidate intends to pursue if elected president
Who puts it together
The Platform Committee under the direction of the party’s National Commitee
How does the Platform Committee put it together
Holds hearings around the country during the first 6 months of an election year. The National Committee then agrees to the draft platform, which is presented to delegates at the national party convention. There may be debates at the convention about various parts of the platform, known as planks. More recently parties have tried to avoid heated debates on policy issues at their conventions as the media often portray such events as evidence of a divided party
Describe the contentious R platform debate over sexuality in 2016
The Platform Committee proposed a platform with a staunchly conservative view on sexuality, same sex marriage and transgender issues, calling for the supreme court ruling in Obergefell v Hodges (2015) to be overturned. When the platform came to the convention floor, it was approved merely on a voice vote with only a few nays audible
What happened to the R platform in 2020
Due to COVID, they chose to not right a new one and simply ran on the same one again
Describe the 2020 D platform adopted at the 2020 D convention
Contained a range of policy aspirations across all policy areas. Put together by a committee from both the progressive and moderate wings of the party, among the key pledges were many associated with the COVID pandemic. These included increased funding measures for the Centre for Disease Control and Prevention and providing more aid to state and local government for initiatives such as contact tracing. Avoided the medicare for all slogan championed by Sanders instead promising to protect strengthen and build upon our bedrock health care programs, including the ACA, adding that private insurers need real competition to ensure that they have an incentive to provide afforable, quality coverage to every American. This was a policy designed to paper of the divides within the party over healthcare. There were also several specific endorsements such as supporting a right to statehood for Washington DC and finding a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants
Why can it be argued that too much off a fuss is made of party platforms
- Very little specific reference is made to it during the campaign or the administration of the winning candidate
- Much of it is just broad general platitude
Give an example of how there can infact be broad differences between the D and R party platforms
Over abortion and right to life in 2016
Ds said that they believe like the majority of Americans that women should have access to quality reproductive healthcare services, including safe and legal abortion - regardless of where she lives, how much money she makes, or how she is insured
Rs said that the assert the sanctity of human life and affirm that the unborn child has a fundamental right to life which cannot be infringed
Why would it be mistaken to say that there is no point in having national party conventions given that they seem to no longer fulfil their formal functions
Their importance is found in their hidden or informal functions
List these informal functions
- Post convention bounce
- Enthusing the ordinary voters
- Enthusing the party faithful
- Promoting party unity
Which is probably the most important function
Promoting party unity
Why is promoting party unity so important after a primary
The primaries can turn into bitter personal battles, and it is vital that these internal party wounds are healed before the GE campaign as divided parties rarely win
Why was the 2016 Republican convention an example of one not promoting party unity
Failure of prominent Rs to support Trump. Some of his diehard opponents were still considering ways to deny him the nomination at the start of the conference. Leading Rs like Romney and GWB stayed away completely. Some former primary challengers were fully supportive, but others, like governor of Ohio John Kasich, in whose state the convention was being held, stayed away. Trump’s main rival in the primaries, Ted Cruz, delivered a 20 minute speech in which he failed to endorse Trump and instructed attendees to ‘vote with your conscience’ rather than to vote for Trump. He was then booed off the stage by Trump supporters.
Why would the R strategists been happy at the lack of challengers in the 2020 primary
Because it avoided such scenes
Explain how there had been divides between Biden and Harris in the primaries
Harris brought up Biden’s controversial views on busing from the 1970s
Biden was criticised for remarking ‘go easy on me kid’ as this was seen as patronising to an experienced 54 year old senator
What did the D national party convention give both an opportunity to do
Come together in an exercise in unity and mutual admiration
What did Harris say to complement Biden
What moves me about Joe is the work he has done. This is the leader who wrote the Violence Against Women Act, enacted the Assault Weapons Ban, who implemented the Recovery Act as VP, which brought our conntry back from the Great Recession. He spend decades promoting American values and interests around the world, standing up with our allies and standing up to our adversaries
What did Biden say to complement Harris
I will have a great VP at my side. She is a powerful voice for this nation. Her story is the American story. She knows about the obstacles thrown in the way of so many in our country. Women, black women, black americans, South Asian Americans, immigrants, the left out and left behind. No one has been tougher in calling out this current administration for its extremeism, its failure to follow the law and to tell the truth
Why is important that the party faithful across the nation feel enthused after the convention
Lots of hard work to do in the GE campaign. 9 week campaign
How does the convention provide an opportunity to enthuse the party faithful
Through speeches and past party champions and heroes
Who gave an inspirational speech at the 2020 D convention
Michelle Obama
What did she say to rally the party faithful
Trump is the wrong president for our country. He has had more than enough time to prove that he can do the job, but he is clearly in over his head. He cannot meet the moment. He cannot be who we need him to be for us. If you take one thing from my words tonight let it be this: if you think things cannot possibly get worse, they can: and they will if we don’t make a change in this election. If we have any hope of ending this chaos, we have got to vote for Biden like our lives depend on it
How are ordinary voters enthused seeing as they are not in the convention hall
Through TV
What is the best opportunity to enthuse ordinary voters
When the newly adopted presidential candidate delivers their acceptance speech on the final night of the convention
Why is this such an important function
Most voters pay little, if any, attention to the primaries. Once the candidates have been selected and the policies finalised, voters tune in to take a serious look at both parties, their candidates and their policies
When will first impressions be very important
When someone is running for the first time - like Trump in 2016
What made Trump’s selection as the R candidate such a rarity
Only the second person to win it at first attempt since Barry Goldwater in 1964, with the other being GWB in 2000
In which two years did Biden unsuccessfully run for the D nomination
1988 and 2008
How were the two 2020 acceptance speeches different in tone
Trump presented the picture of a country with a stark choice before it. Joe Biden’s had a much more optimistic theme of a country that although divided, in his view by the Trump presidency, the could nonetheless come together again
What did Trump say in his speech
At no time before have voters faced a clearer choice between two parties, two visions, two agendad, two philosophies. This election will decide if we save the American Dream or whether we allow a socialist agenda to demolish our cherished destiny. Your vote will decide whether we protect law abiding Americans or whether we give free reign to anarchists, agitators and criminals who threaten our citizens
What did Biden say in his speech
The current president has cloaked America in darkness for too long. Too much anger, fear and division. If you entrust me with the presidency, I will draw on the best of us and not the worst. I will be an ally of the light not the darkness. United we can and will overcome this season season of darkness in America. We will choose hope over fear, facts over fiction, fairness over privilege
What is the post convention bounce
Opinion polls register the immediate effect of the conventions, with instant polls showing what kind of increase, if any, a candidate has enjoyed as a result of the speech. This increased poll rating compared to their pre convention poll rating is referred to as the post convention bounce
Make the case that the post convention boost is exaggerated
In an analysis of political conventions since the 1960s, Prof Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia concluded that post convention polls signal the eventual outcome of the election only half the time. He says you could flip a coin and be about as predictive. It’s really surprising how quickly convention memories fade, he says
How did the 2020 conventions not provide a bounce for either candidate
CNN polls saw Biden’s support rise by just 1% while Trump saw his rating fall by 3%
Why would it be wrong to write them off as useless
They perform important functions, not only are they a time for celebrating the glorious past, they can also be important for identifying the rising stars of the future. In 2004 little known Senator from Illinois, Barack Obama, made a name for himself with his impressive address
Make the case that national party conventions are still important
- The only time national parties meet together
- Opportunity to promote party unity, especially after divisive primary campaign
- Opportunity to enthuse party members and activists
- Introduce presidential and vice presidential candidates
- Delivery of the candidate’s acceptance speech
- Can lead too a significant bounce in the polls
- Many voters don’t tune in to the campaign until the conventions start
- A significant number of voters make their decision about whom to support the conventions
Make the case that they are no longer important
- VP candidate now announced before, instead of during the party convention
- Party platform mostly agreed before rather than during the convention
- TV coverage is much reduced nowadays
- More balloons and spectacle than serious policy
- 2020 saw no convention bounce in the polls
- The absence of traditional large scale conventions in 2020 did not appear to alter the dynamics or fortunes of either candidate significantly
We have now studies the first 4 stages of the presidential election process. What are they
- Invisible primary
- Primaries and caucuses
- Choosing of the VP candidates
- National party conventions
What is stage 5
The general election campaign
When does this phase run
The national conventions to the day before election day
Where are these campaigns carried out
Largely TV and social media, although some campaign rallies are still held
Where are the remaining campaign rallies held
The key battleground states where the election will be decided.
What were these battleground states where campaign rallies were held in 2020
- Wisconsin
- Ohio
- Michigan
- Pennsylvania
- North Carolina
- Georgia
- Florida
- Arizona
What is the focal point of this stage
The televised presidential debates as well as the debate between the two VP candidates
What is the sixth stage
Election day itself
The popular vote for each candidate will be tallied in every state. What did 2020 tell us about this
That it can be lengthy and controversial
What did Trump and his supporters claim had happened during this stage in 2020
Falsely claimed that fradulent votes had been added in swing states such as Georgia
What happens once all the votes have been counted and the winners in each state have been certified
We move the last stage. The voting of the electoral college
What is the electoral college
The institution established by the FF to elect the presidnet and VP indirectly. The electors cast their ballots in their state capitals
Why is the president not elected through the popular vote
They are elected through the electoral college instead
Why does this distinction not matter in most cases
Because the person who wins the popular vote will also win the EC vote, as happened in 2020
Give an example of an election where the person who won the popular vote did not win the EC vote
In 2016. Although Hilary Clinton won the popular vote by more than 3 million votes, Trump won the EC
How many votes did Biden win in 2020
81 million
How many did Trump win
74 million
What % of the popular vote did Biden win
51%
What % of the popular vote did Trump win
47%
How many EC votes did Biden win
306
How many EC votes did Trump win
232
What is each state awarded under the EC system
A certain number of EC votes
How is the number of EC votes a state is awarded decided
The number is equal to the state’s representation in congress, which is the number of senators plus the number of representatives. So in 2020 California had 55 (53+2), while Wyoming had 3 (1+2)
How many EC votes are there
538
How many EC votes must a candidate win to become president
They must achieve an absolute majority of EC votes, which is 270
How is there variation in terms of how the votes are allocated in the different states
In all but two states, whichever candidate wins the popular vote receives all the EC votes for that state - this is called the winner take all rule. This rule is not in the constitution, it is a convention that developed across the 19th century in most states
The two exceptions are Maine and Nebraska where the EC votes are allocated differently; two votes to the overall winner of the popular vote across the state and the rest to the winner in each congressional district
How does the electoral college voting process work
The EC never meets together. It members, called Electors, meet in their respective state capitals on the Monday after the second Wednesday in Dec. They send their result to the VP who will be in Washington DC and announces the result to a joint session of congress in early Jan
What will the VP do in this joint session of congress
They will formally count the votes and announce the results
Why were these proceedings contentious on 6 Jan 2021
Pence failed to overturn the EC results of states that Trump falsely claimed to have won. It was during these proceedings that a pro Trump mob invaded the capital, causing the proceedings to be halted
What are the two ways in which no candidate could receive a majority of electoral college votes
- If a 269-269 split occured between two candidates
- If a third candidate split the vote
When did a 269-269 split almost occur
2000
When did a 3rd candidate split the vote
In 1968 when 3rd candidate George Wallace won 5 states with 45 EC votes
What would happen under circumstances where no candidate achieved a majority
- The president would be elected by the house from the three candidates with the most EC votes. Each state would have one vote. The winner would require an absolute majority - 26 of the 50 states. Balloting would continue until one candidate emerged as the winner
- The VP would be elected by the senate from the two VP candidates with the most EC votes. Each senator would have a vote. The winner has to have an absolute majority
What were the two years where the EC failed to come up with a winner and the election was thrown to congress
1800 and 1824
Controversy over which two recent elections has led for calls for the EC to be reformed or abolished
2000 and 2016
Explain how easily Clinton could have won in the 2016 election
Had just over 77,000 Trump votes switched to Clinton across three states, Clinton would have won the election
What were these three states
- Michigan
- Pennsylvania
- Wisconsin
How could a similar thing have occured in 2020
Had around 60,000 Biden votes switched to Trump in just three states, Trump would have had 273 EC votes to Biden’s 265, while Biden would have still won the popular vote by 7 million
What were these three states
- Arizona
- Pennsylvania
- Wisconsin
How does the EC system discriminate against the Ds
Because it is skewed in favour of small pop states, which are more likely to be won by Rs, and skewed against larger pop states, which are more likely to be won by the Ds
Give an example of this happening in 2020 and explain its significance
In California, which Biden won, he needed 308,000 votes per electoral college vote. In Wyoming, which Trump won, he needed 120,000 per EC vote. So if California was awarded EC votes in the same proportion as Wyoming, it would have 183 instead of 55 votes. It does not uphold the principle of one person one vote, as the vote of someone in Wyoming is nearly 3 times as valuable as someone from California
Why are changes to the electoral system unlikely despite this system
The current two party dominant system benefits the big two, even if it does benefit the Rs slightly more, which means that they are unlikely to want change
What did wealthy late 19th century R political operative Mark Hanna say about campaign finance
There are two things that are important in politics: the first one is money, and I can’t remember what the second is. Few modern politicians would agree with this when it comes to running for office at state, congressional or presidential level. While superior funding and therefore campaign spending does not guarantee victory even in close races, but candidates ignore at their peril the value of having a sufficient war chest
Describe attitudes to campaign finance reform in recent years
Widely agreed upon in principle by many, especially on the more progressive side of US politics but it has been frustratingly hard for supporters to secure major change
What does the term ‘campaign finance’ refer to
All funds raised to promote parties, candidates or policies and agendas during an election. Major and controversial aspect of US politics
When was the Federal Election Campaign Act (FECA) passed
1974
What scandal was FECA a response to
Watergate
What did the act do
Made a number of significant changes by limiting the direct contributions (hard money) that individuals, unions and corporations could give, hoping to reduce candidates reliance on a few, wealthy donors and equalise spending by the major parties. The objectives of these reforms were praiseworthy and partly successful
What were the weaknesses of the act
The law was found to have too many loopholes and so has been weakened by Congress and the SC
What is hard money
Money donated directly to a party’s or individuals campaign. Donations of this type are capped by federal law
When was the Buckley v Valeo case
1976
Why was the case significant for campaign finance
Ruled that limitations on what individuals or pacs could spend was a violation of their first amendment right to free speech and was therefore unconstitutional
How did Congress further weaken FECA in 1979
They allowed parties to raise money for aspects such as voter registration, get out the vote drives and party building activities. This so called soft money was soon seen by most observers as being out of control, leading to the need for further reform
What is soft money
Money donated indirectly to political parties and political action committees, therefore not being tightly regulated by law
How were presidential campaigns funded between 1976-2008
Through matching funds
What are matching funds
Federal money administered by the newly created Federal Election Commission (FEC) that is given to candidates who meet a certain criteria and agree to certain limitations
How much did the FEC pay out in matching funds in 1976
$72 million
How did Obama undermine matching funds in 2008
He opted out as this left him free from fundraising and spending limitations by the FEC, and was able to significantly outspend McCain as a result, who took the $84 million in matching funds to spend on his campaign. This was thought to be critical to his win and set the trend for future election cycles
What did the 2004 election see the appearance of in terms of campaign finance
527 groups
Which two senators brought the act about
R John McCain and D Russel Fiengold
Why are they called 527 groups
Named after the section of the US tax code under which they operate
Give some examples of some of the 527 groups who did this
- America Coming Together
- Swift Boat Veterans for Truth
List the stipulation of the McCain Feingold act
- National party committees were banned from raising or spending soft money
- Labour unions and corporations were forbidden from directly funding issue advertisements
- Prohibited the use of union and corporate money to broadcast advertisements that mention a federal candidate within 60 days of a GE or 30 days of a primary
- Sets individual limits on contributions to individual candidates or candidate committees at $2,300 to be increased for inflation in each odd numbered year
- Contributions from foreign nationals were banned
- The ‘Stand by Your Ad’ provision resulted in all campaign advertisements having to include a verbal endorsement by the candidate
What did these 527 groups do in terms of campaign finance in this election
Raised and spent millions of dollars, most of which was donated by a few super rich and largely unknown people
What is the individual contribution limit for a candidate committee
$2,800 per election
What is the individual contribution limit for PACs
$5,000 per year
What is the individual contribution limit for national party committees
$35,500 per year
What are politica action committees
A political committee that raises limited amounts of money and spend these contributions for the express purpose of electing or defeating candidates
How did PACs come about
Because of the limits on contributions to candidates and parties, new organisations came to be formed that made independent expenditures on their own. These are known as pacs and spend money for the express purpose of electing or defeating certain candidates. They either give money to candidates they support or spend money against candidates whom they will oppose. Most of them represent business, labour groups, ideological groups or single issue groups
What is a super PAC
A political committee that makes independent expenditures, but does not make direct contributions to candidates
Describe the significance of the 2010 Citizens United v FEC case
Brought to the SC by non profit organisation Citizens United, who want to air a film critical of Hilary Clinton on TV in 2008. The district court ruled it to be in violation of the McCain-Feingold Act, as it forbids adverts mentioning a presidential candidate within 60 days of a GE or 30 days of a primary. The SC reversed this decision by ruling 5-4 in favour of Citizens United, finding that the McCain Feingold Act violated the 1st amendments protection of free speech
What did the majority opinion state in support of the idea that the McCain Feingold Act violates the first amendment protection of free speech
It said that if the 1st amendment has any force, it prohibits congress from fining or jailing citizens, or associations of citizens, for simply engaging in political speech
List the implications this ruling had on campaign finance
- Granted corporate and labour organisations the same rights of political free speech as individuals, thereby giving them the right of unlimited independent political expenditure
- Along with another case in the court of appeals, Speechnow.org v FEC (2010), it led to the setting up of independent expenditure only committees (IEOCs). Given the awkwardness of the acronym they were dubbed super pacs
- Super PACs could solicit and accept unlimited contributions from individuals , corporations, labour organisations and other political committees. They spend money to achieve their desired objectives, but they are forbidden from making any direct contributions to federal candidates or parties, hence they are, expenditure only committees
- The net effect of these court cases was to severely limit the impact of the McCain Feingold Act. Total campaign expenditure rose sharply thereafter, much of it channelled through super PACs and their independent expenditure
Give an example of a subsequent SC case where the SC has favoured first amendment rights over legal limits on campaign contributions
McCutcheon v FEC (2014)
How did this ruling erode FECA and and the BCRA
These acts placed limits on how much individuals could donate per election. This meant that someone couldn’t donate to all of the D or R candidates. The ruling overturned this and meant that individuals could donate to all of the candidates they wanted as long as each individual donation did not exceed the cap
How many Super PACs were registered with the FEC ahead of the 2020 election cycle
2,200
Some of these were Hybrid PACs (Carey Committees). What are they
They maintain one account for making contributions to candidates, like regular PACs, and another for making independent expenditure, like Super PACs
Why is their expenditure seen as being spent on negative campaigning
They spend most of their money on attack ads on opposition candidates instead of promoting their own candidates and policies that they support
Give two examples to show how this
The House Majority PAC spent $138 million on attacking R candidates and just $5 million on promoting D candidates
Club for Growth Action PAC spent $10.4 million on ads attacking Biden and just $1.3 million of pro-Trump ads
Give an example that actually bucks this trend
Committee to Defend the President spent over 2/3 of their expenditure on pro-Trump advertising
Give an example of how they can spend their money tactically
Senate Leadership Fund PAC poured nearly one 1/3 of their expenditure into attack ads on D candidates in two crucial senate races: North Carolina and Dakota
Give some examples to illustrate how Super PACs associated with gun control/2nd amendment can be important
The NRA’s Victory Fund Super PAC spent $16 million on ads supporting Rs and attacking Ds
The gun control Everytown for Gun Safety Victory fund spent $20 million on precisely the opposite
Why do some people support the role of Super PACs in elections
Some see them as a positive consequence of deregulation that provide an outlet for political free speech, advocating independent calls for the election or defeat of specific candidates
What is the counter to this view
Another outlet for unlimited money in electoral politics that, while legally independent, are merely functional extensions of existing campaigns
Give an example of an individual who donates heavily to the Ds
Michael Bloomberg
Give some examples of these individuals for the Rs
The Koch Brothers and Sheldon Adelson
How excessive was Bloomberg’s support for the Ds in the 2020 election
Spent over $1 billion on supporting D candidates and funding his own bid for the WH
How much was spent in the 2016 election cycle
$6.5 billion
How much did the 2016 Trump campaign raise
$340 million
How much did the 2016 Clinton campaign raise
$580 million
How much was spent on the the 2018 midterms
$5.2 billion
How much of an increase was this on the previous midterms
35%
How much was spent in the 2020 election
Just under $14 billion
From whom does the majority of this money come from
A small group of the ultra wealthy
Give a statistic to prove how this was the case in the 2020 GE
A group making up less than 0.1% of the pop made around 1/5 of the campaign contributions
Evaluate whether this is a threat to democracy
These people are richer, older and whiter than the US pop as a whole and so their demands will be unrepresentative
However, both parties benefit from these large donations
Describe the worrying development of dark money in 2020
These are donations where the identity of the donor is secret. In total, across all types of independent expenditure, only 30% came from groups that fully disclosed their donors, an all time low
I’ll say something from the 2020 and you say how much money it raised
!!!
Biden campaign
$1.6 billion
Trump
$1.1 billion
Total amount raised by all D candidates and groups
$6.9 billion
Total amount raised by all R candidates and groups
$3.8 billion
What was the proportion given by small donors (less than $200)
22%
What was the proportion given by large individual donors
42%
What was the amount of outside spending from groups like Super PACs, political parties and dark money groups
$2.6 billion
Most expensive senate race
North Carolina at $265 million
Most expensive house race
California 25th district at $34 million
Where does lots of this money controversially come from in these expensive races
From independent expenditure and donations from outside the state
Why it rational for donors to do this
Because they are spending their money in the way that will have the most influence
Make the case that money influences electoral outcomes
- Biden out funded Trump and won
- In the 2020 Senate race in Arizona, incumbent Martha McSally was outspent by $30 million by D challenger Mark Kelly and lost
- Candidates are very concerned with raising strong finance
- Superior funding allows candidates to air more TV ads and to employ more fieldworkers and campaign staff, both of which are important in maximising their vote. Effective campaigning involves considerable spending in terms of advertising and personnel
Make the case that money does not influence electoral outcomes
- In 2016 Clinton significantly out fundraised Trump and lost
- In the 2020 South Carolina Senate race, R incumbent Lindsey Graham was outspent by over $40 million by a D challenger but still safely managed re-election
- Large warchest is just one factor of many
- Could make the case that the ability to raise large funds just indicates a strong candidate, as donors rationally want to give money to those who are likely to win. Money therefore follows strong and viable candidates, rather than creating them in the first place
What are the three main things that candidates spend this money on
Media, organisation and campaigning
What do we mean when we say a candidate is spending money on organisation
Staff, their salaries, and related administrative costs. This ranges from lower paid administrative staff to specialist political consultants, campaign managers and strategists
What did Biden promise his campaign staff would receive in 2020
A minimum of $15 per hour as well as full healthcare and sick leave
Give some statistics to prove how this makes up a relatively small proportion of campaign spending
Made up just 10% of Biden’s campaign budget
Why will campaigns leave some money aside for organisation day after election day
To retain lawyers in case they need to challenge any results
What do we mean when we say a candidate spends money on campaigning
Things like travel, venue hire and hotel accommodation, as well as internal polling whereby candidates can decide where to spend campaigning time. A certain amount also goes on things like badges, stickers and signs, though much of this is sold to the party faithful so this raises more money for the campaign
Why did 2020 see a reduction in spending here
Fewer rallies held due to COVID
Give some statistics to prove that most of the expenditure goes
Made of 67% of Trump’s expenditure and 80% of Biden’s
Explain how political ads are becoming micro targeted
In Florida the Biden campaign bought ads specifically targeting Puerto Ricans and the Mexican American community in Arizona
How many political ads were aired in 2020
8 million, an increase on 5.5 million in 2018
What did former South Carolina congressmen Mick Mulvaney admit to a conference of bankers about the influence of funding in 2018
He said that there was a hierarchy in his office at congress. If you were a lobbyist who didn’t give him money then he wouldn’t talk to you, but if you were a lobbyist who did give him money then he might talk to you. However, he caveats this by saying that at the top of this hierarchy were his constituents, and he would always talk to them
How many of the last 12 elections have featured an incumbent president seeking another term
8
How many of the last 7 re election bids have been successful
4
How strong has the incumbency effect been since 1796
Incumbents have had a 69% success rate
What is the most common way that an incumbent will lose their advantage
If they fail to have the undivided support of their entire party
Back this up
Carter, Ford and GHWB all lost their re-election attempts after facing significant primary challenges earlier in the year. Ford challenged by Reagan, Carter challenged by Edward Kennedy and GHWB challenged by Pat Buchanan
Which example bucks this trend
Trump in 2020
Why are unchallenged incumbents in a better position
Conserve funds for the GE campaign
Less likely to appear like damaged goods
Why does the incumbency effect become something of a self fulfilling prophecy
Stops well known candidates from throwing their hat in the ring as they may as well just wait four money years
Those who are likely to win are more likely to receive greater donations
Why did Trump lose despite being an unchallenged incumbent
Handling of COVID and BLM
Controversial style and persona
Few presidents have faced so much criticism from former associates, who often published memoirs or spoke in public of their time in the administration within months of resigning or being sacked
What are the 6 main incumbent advantages
Name recognition
Fundraising
Single candidate
Excecutive position
Campaign experience
Risk aversion
Explain the advantage of name recognition
Known to the electorate, gives a media advantage. Can address the nation and highlight achievements during their first term and their proven leadership qualities
Explain the advantage of fundraising
Don’t have to spend on primaries. Established donor base from previous election campaign. . This was not the case in 2020 as Biden out funded Trump significantly
Explain the advantage of being a single candidate
Often unchallenged from within their party. Challenger has a gruelling primary which can exhaust them personally and their funds, as well as causing party divides
Explain the advantage of executive position
Can use their position to benefit key groups and swing states or announce popular measures before an election
Give an example of a president announcing a popular measure before an election
Obama announcing the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan in 2011
Explain the advantage of campaign experience
Previous experience of winning a presidential campaign
Explain the advantage of risk aversion
Americans have only rejected 11 presidents going for re-election in history. Therefore likely to be re elected unless something significant like COVID happens
Make the case that the economy can be a limitation on the incumbent advantage
All 4 of the most recent failed re-election bids have been where presidents presided over failed economies
How was this the case for Trump
He was banking heavily on a strong economy and job creation to secure another term. However, COVID meant high unemployment. By the start of June 2020 40 million jobs had been lost
Why do unforseen events damage the incumbent
Because they get the blame when things go wrong
How was Carter an example of this
52 Americans were held hostage in Iran for the entire final year of his presidency
How was GHWB an example of this
Lost Lee Atwater, the main architect of his successful 1988 campaign, who died in 1991
Third party right wing candidate Ross Perot gained 19% of the vote, most of which came from R voters
Is the incumbency effect stronger in the house or the senate
The house
Why are is the incumbency rate so high considering congresioal approval ratings are so low
Because although congress is unpopular as an institution people tend to like their own members of congress
What were the re-election rates in the 2018 midterms
84% for the senate and 91% for the house
Give a statistic to show strong the incumbency effect was in 2020
Just five senators and 20 members of the house were defeated
What therefore tends to cause congresspeople to leave
Voluntary retirement or death
What are the advantages of being an incumbent in congress
Can provide constituent services - anything from making sure a constituent receives the correct level of services from a federal department or agency to getting legislation passed that brings federal funds and benefits to the state or district
High levels of name recognition compared to the challenger. Also likely to have relevant committee places and maybe even the position of chair on prestigous comittees or subcommittees or ones related to constituency interests, like agriculture for midwest legislators. Replacing an incumbent means losing this seniority they have gained on capital hill and with it some significant benefits of federal spending on projects or subsidies to key local industries
Most have a huge fundraising advantage over challengers. Senate candidates raised over 5x more than challengers in 2020 and house incumbents out raised challengers six fold
What does the coattails effect refer to within American elections
This is where a strong candidate at the top of the party ticket, such as a president, or in the midterms a state governor, can help other candidates get elected at the same time
How was Reagan an example of this in 1980
Helped the Rs gain 33 seats in the house and 12 seats in the senate, with 9 incumbent D senators defeated
Why can this be seen as an anamole
Because GWB, Clinton and Obama showed little evidence of coattails effect
Make the arguement Trump had a coattails effect in 2016
Evidence that his stronger than expected showing in some states helped some R senators gain re-election who had been thought have been facing defeat. Senators Pat Toomey, Richard Burr and most notably Ron Johnson all won their races despite the fact that their D opponents had been leading in the polls for most of the campaign, sometimes by large margins
Make the case that Trump did not have a coattails effect in 2016
Of the 21 winning R senate candidates 16 won a higher vote share in their state than Trump did
Why can it be argued that the US actually has anything but a president’s coattails system
A strong local following and suitably tailored voting record can often lead to incumbents overperforming compared to the president
How was 2020 an example of this
In Maine just 43.5% voted for Trump, while 50.6% voted for Senator Susan Collins
In Colorado, losing incumbent Cory Gardner received 44% of the vote compared to Trump’s 42%
