Health and Disease in Populations Flashcards
What is the Stochastic Approach?
Having a random probability distribution or pattern that can be analysed statistically it may not predict future events but it can give the likelihood e.g. Overcrowding and TB
What is deterministic approach?
Is lab approach, test validity of hypothesis by systematic observations to pick with certainty future events e.g. TB and tubercule bacillus
Define a Cenus?
The simultaneous recording of demographic data by the government at a particular time pertaining to all persons who live in a particular territory
Features of a Cenus?
Run by government, covers a defined area, personal enumeration, occurs simultaneously, universal coverage, occurs at regular intervals
Uses of a Cenus?
Population - size, structure, characteristics used to see service needs, give indication of grant sizes to trusts
Health - can use to plan health care + resources
Housing - see if overcrowding is present and if so indicates need for new housing
Employment - plans jobs + training programmes
Transport - planning of roads + public transport
Ethnic Groups - measure success of equal opportunities, plan programmes for minority groups, identify nature and extent of nanny disadvantages
Emp
Define crude birth rate and state it’s use
No of live births per 1000 population (includes men)
- used to see the I lactate of births on size of a population
Define General fertility rate and state it’s use
No of live births per 1000 females aged 15 to 44 years
- used to compare fertility rate of fertile female populations
Define total period fertility rate and state it’s use
The average number of children that should be born to a hypothetical women in her life (sum of current age specific fertility rates)
- used to remove the influence of age group structure when co spring fertility of female populations
What is fecundity? And what effects it?
The physical ability to reproduce
Effected by sterilisations and hysterectomies (if they increase then there is a decease in fecundity)
What is fertility? and what effects it?
Realisation of this potential as births
Effected by sexual activity, economic climate (if increase then increase in fertility), contraception and abortion/termination (if increase then fertility decreases)
Define crude death rate
No of deaths per 1000 population
Define age specific death rate
No of deaths per 1000 in an age group
Define standard mortality rate
Observed number of deaths with number expected if age, sex distributions of populations were identical
Reasons behind collecting mortality data
- is as proxy measure for incidence of disease
- used to identify health problems and therefore plan care services & prevention programmes
- used in population estimates and projections
What is population size effected by?
Number of births, amount of migration, deaths
- most effected by fertility rates and migration as death is more certain and is easy to predict
What are the 3 uses of healthcare information?
- Identify health & health care needs (morbidity data, NHS data, disease registration e.g cancer , deportment of work and pensions, health surgery for England)
- Monitor trends in disease
- Monitor performances in healthcare (dr foster, health statistics, QOF, qualities and outcomes framework)
What are the contentious issues associated with health information?
Purpose (past or future), User (manager or academic) quality (real time or validated), compatibility (has the data been customised), relationship (integral to NHS or independent), publication ( NHS only or public), access (data protection and confidentiality), funding (NHS or private)
Define incidence and how do you calculate it?
The number of new cases arising in a given time
IRR= new events / (no of people in population x time in years)
= events per person per year
What are person years/person-time at risk?
No of people x time
Define prevalence? And what is it?
The number of people affected by the disease
- is a proportion not a rate
How do we calculate prevalence and what influences it?
Point prevalence = no of suffers / no of people at risk, a population
Prevalence = incidence x length of disease
So effected by incidence, death from disease, cured of disease, length of disease
What can an incidence rate ratio be used for?
Comparing the incidence between two populations
- can show if a new treatment is working or not
- see if an exposure really is hazardous
What is a standardise mortality ratio, SMR?
Is a summary figure describing the mortality experience of a local population compared with a standard reference population which into account the confounding influences e.g. Age + Sex
- often expressed as a percentage or relative to 1
What does an SMR of 100 or 1 suggest?
That our population is the same as the standard reference population
What does and SMR greater than 100 or 1 mean?
That our population has an excess mortality in comparison to the standard reference population
What does an SMR less than 100 or 1 mean?
That our population has lower than average mortality
What does a confounder has the potential to do?
Explain all of or part of the association between an exposure and a disease
What is a confounder?
Is a factor that links the exposure with the outcome spuriously I.e. It is not on the causative pathway
Define the placebo effect
Is the psychological benefit that derives from being looked after/cared for different or from being on a new/special treatment
Can result in impaired clinical condition even if the new treatment is not as effective as standard treatment.
What is a placebo?
An inert substance which looks, tastes and is packaged identically to the comparison drug
When do we we use a placebo?
If no standard treatment exists
(Has ethical considerations as for, of deception so it is essential that patients are aware that they may receive a placebo)
Why do we predefine outcomes in RCTs?
Prevent data dredging
Practical for data collection
Agreed criteria for measurement and assessment of outcomes
What is the difference between primary and secondary outcomes?
Primary: only 1 and used in sample size calculation, main purpose of study
Secondary: other outcomes of interest e.g. occurrence of side effects
What are the three types of outcome?
Pathophysiological e.g. tumour size
Clinically e.g. Death, disease
Patient focused e.g. Quality of life
What are the 6 pairs of features if a ideal outcome?
- Appropriate and relevant (to pt, clinicians, society)
- Valid and attributable
- Sensitive and specific (chosen method of measurement can see effects accurately)
- Reliable and robust (outcome measurable by different people)
- Simple and sustainable (method easily carried out repeatably)
- Cheap and timely
What are the timing of measurements?
Before: baseline measurement of revelant factors
During: monitor outcomes during the trial (positive and adverse)
After: final measurement of outcomes, comparing final effects of treatments in trial