group cognition 1 - group decision making and rationality Flashcards
the madness of crowds
Charles Mackay
example:
stock market activity and economic bubbles→ investors buy up cheap shares and this snowballs increasing the price of the shares until they no longer reflect the value of the company→ the bubble bursts and the shares are worth very little
the wisdom of crowds
individuals had to guess the weight of an ox
the mean of all guesses (made individually) was very close to the actual weight
therefore the guess of the group was better than that of individuals
real world example of the madness of crowds
run on deposit withdrawals in 2007
led to collapse of a UK bank - Northern Rock
paradigm to test small group cognition/decision making
3-6 people = small group
do short tasks - with definitive answer
with common aims
e.g. have to figure out a question which is quite confusingly worded - example is who is married
results:
individuals more likely than groups to state that they cannot tell –> intuition
after few mins discussion, more people come to the right answer than when individually
Wason’s selection task
used in group cognition studies
four cards with a letter on one side and a number on the other
told a rule and have to flip over on cards to decide whether the statement is true or false
e.g. all cards with a vowel on one side have an even number on the other side
cards = E X 1 6
solution = flip E and 1, X and 6 would tell you nothing
confirmation bias
confirmation bias = preference for seeking info to confirm existing beliefs rather than contradict it
active search for info, not whether you believe info when you encounter it
wason’s selection task in groups
used as a small group decision task
80% of groups arrive at the correct answer
70-80% individuals arrive at wrong answer
few mins discussion can change wrong answer to correct one
therefore researchers can use this to look at the processing of reasoning in groups
Wason’s selection task - controls (what helps (2) or doesn’t help (3) participants to reach correct answer)
doesn’t help
- motivation / rewards
- changing the wording
- university education
does help
- making the task less abstract
- working in a group, not alone (maybe…)
Wason’s selection task - social rule version
4 cards representing 4 people in a pub
each with a drink on one side (alcoholic or non) and an age on the other
rule = all people with an alcoholic drink must be older than 18
cards = beer // cola // 17 // 25
task = which people do you need to inspect to see if rule is being broken
solution = turn over beer and 17
results = people are better at this than the normal one
can group cognition improve individual reasoning
yes
but not always - need to think about when and why
process loss and gain
process loss = group decisions are worse than individual = madness of crowds
process gain = group decisions are better than individual = wisdom of crowds
what level do groups perform at relative to their members
at the accuracy of the second best member of the group
group cognition tends to avoid individual worst answer but also the best answer
4 factors to define to determine if groups are better than individuals
- task time
- standards of comparison
- coordination methods
- individual differences
it is difficult to compare groups
task types for measuring group cognition (2 measures)
intellective = definitive answer
vs
judgement = estimations/opinions
well-defined
vs
ill-defined
(closely related to intellective vs judgement)
3 things task could depend on (types) for measuring group cognition
does the task:
- require insight
- require background knowledge
- provoke strong intuitions or emotions (biases)
