Föreläsning 11

Question 1

What 4 elements does VUCA consist of?

Answer 1

Volatility
Uncertainty
Complexity
Ambiguity

Question 2

Describe how the quadrant model looks for VUCA

Answer 2

y-axis: How well can you predict results of your actions?
x-axis How much do you know about the situation?

Volatility (+x,+y)
Uncertainty (+x, -y)
Complexity (+y, -x)
Ambiguity (-x, -y

Question 3

What are the characteristics of Volatility?

Answer 3

The challenge is unexpected or unstable. May be of unknown duration. Knowledge about it is often available, not necessarily hard to understand.

Dynamic Instability partly due to tech development.

Ex: prices fluctuate after a natural disaster takes a supplier off-line. Typ elkrisen nu.

Question 4

What is the approach for Volatility?

Answer 4

Build in slack and devote resources to preparedness. Stockpile inventory or overbuy talent. Usually expensive though so your investments should match the risk.

1. You need information, not just data.
2. Communicate clearly
3. Ensure your intent is understood

Question 5

What are the characteristics of Uncertainty?

Answer 5

Here we have a lack of other information, but inspite of this the events basic cause and effect are known. Change is possible but not a given. Applying yesterdays solutions on todays problems.

Ex: A competitors future launch can cause a lot of uncertainty and rockiness in the business and market. Important supplier goes bankrupt in time of crisis

Question 6

Whats the approach for Uncertainty?

Answer 6

Invest in information. Such as adding information analysis networks.

1. Get a fresh perspective (play devils advocate)
2. Be flexible and adaptive, don’t get attached to your plan
3. Glance back, look ahead

3 A’s:
- Accept
- Assess
- Augment

Question 7

What are the characteristics of Complexity?

Answer 7

Many interconnected parts and variables. Information can be predicted or available but the volume of the situation can be overwhelming to the process.

Question 8

What is the approach to Complexity?

Answer 8

Restructure, bring on or develop specialists to address the complexity.

1. develop collaborative leaders
2. stop seeking permanent solutions
3. train tomorrows heroes now

Question 9

What are the characteristics of Ambiguity?

Answer 9

casual relationships are completely unclear. No precedents exists.

Ex. if you launch products outside your core competencies or move into immature/emerging markets… typ caia med hudvård

INTRESSANT:
Donald Rumsfeld: Reports that say that something hasn’t happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don’t know we don’t know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tend to be the difficult ones.

What we don’t know we don’t know? – unidentified risks.

Question 10

What are two kinds of uncertainty?

Answer 10

Subway uncertainty: we can predict the consequences and probability of occuring.

Coconut uncertainty: Low probability events (low chance of predicting consequences, in VUCA this is Ambiguity)

Question 11

How do we approach ambiguity?

Answer 11

Experiment.

1. Listen well
2. Think divergently
3. Reward small steps in the right direction

Question 12

Why are we bad at predicting the future?

Answer 12

People are very bad at making guesses about the future. Statistical models are better att looking at the past rather than the future. Were better at preparing for what is inevitable. Ex we know how to predict the probability of an earthquake of certain magnitude. But we don’t know when it will strike.

Google wanted to sell the company in 98 for 1.6 million.. nobody was interested…

Question 13

What is industry 4.0?

Answer 13

the 4th (and latest) industrial revolution.

1st: mechanization, water power, steam power
2nd: mass production, electricity, assembly line
3rd: computer and automation
4th cyber physical systems

Smart factory/manufacturing, smart products, smart city (självkörande bilar, robotar som levererar mat osv)

Procurement 4.0 is an example of Ambiguity or “coconut uncertainty”. Nobody knows how it all ends. Industry and procurement 4.0 will require new set of skills and most of all mindsets

Question 14

Why do the principles of Industry 4.0 affect purchasing & supply chain management?

Answer 14

Purchasing is always on the interface of the company, they include the functions that are needed for industry 4.0 to work.

Question 15

What is the pyramid of CSR?

Answer 15

Philantropic
Ethical
Legal
Economic