Exam 4 Flashcards
The conjunction rule states that…
the probability of two events co-occurring is equal to or less than the probability of either event occurring alone
Making probable conclusions based on evidence involves _______ reasoning
Inductive
How do we evaluate whether something is true?
through formal reasoning
Types of formal reasoning
deduction and induction
Deduction
- theory-based inference
- top-down
- either true or false
- validation
Induction
- data-based inference
- bottom-up
- probabilistic conclusions
- prediction
Syllogism
a form of deductive reasoning; an instance of a form of reasoning in which a conclusion is drawn from two given or assumed premises, each of which shares a term with the conclusion, and shares a common or middle term not present in the conclusion
A syllogism is valid if…
the conclusion follows from the premises
Belief bias
tendency to think syllogism is valid if conclusion is believable
Belief-logic conflict
if conclusion is believable, people are less sensitive to validity
Induction
- drawing general conclusion from examples
- not guaranteed to be correct
- probabilistic conclusions
- prediction
What strengthens inductive reasoning?
frequency and representativeness
Frequency in induction
conclusion from many examples is more convincing than few
Representativeness in induction
generalization is more justified if examples and target case are more similar
Heuristic
- a rule of thumb
- not guaranteed to give right answer
- “fast and frugal”
Availability heuristic
to estimate the frequency of an event, assess how easily it comes to mind
- can be distorted by familiarity and salience
Representativeness heuristic
the likelihood that case A is a member of class B depends on how well A resembles members of B
- works often, but may be distorted by neglecting actual probabilities
Anchoring and adjustment
when making an evaluation, make an initial estimate (anchor) and then adjust this value to fit additional information
People are often ____ in the domain of gains and ____ in the domain of losses
risk averse; risk seeking
People avoid risk for…
gains
People seek risk when avoiding…
losses
Decoy effect
violation of consistence through third (irrelevant) option
People weigh ____ heavier than ____
losses; gains
Endowment effect
people value their goods more if they own them
True or false: unrelated mood changes influence what actions we prefer
true
Availability heuristic
states that events that more easily come to mind are judged as being more probable than events that are less easily recalled
- error occurs when easily remembered event is less probable
Backfire effect
the finding that an individual’s support for a particular viewpoint could actually become stronger when faced with corrective facts opposing their viewpoint
- error occurs when person holds to their beliefs in the face of contradictory evidence
Base rate
the relative proportion of different classes in the population
- error occurs when base rate information is not taken into account
Belief bias
the tendency to think a syllogism is valid if its conclusion is believable
Categorical syllogism
the premises and conclusion are statements that begin with All, No, or Some
Conditional syllogism
have two premises and a conclusion like categorical syllogisms, but the first premise has the form “if…then”
Confirmation bias
occurs when people look for information that conforms to their hypothesis and ignore information that refutes it
- error occurs when there is a narrow focus only on confirming information
Conjunction rule
the probability of a conjunction of two events cannot be higher than the probability of the single constituents
- error occurs when higher probability is assigned to the conjunction
Decision
the process of choosing between alternatives
Deductive reasoning
we determine whether a conclusion logically follows from statements
Dual systems approach
Expected emotion
emotions that people predict they will feel for a particular outcome
Expected utility theory
assumes that people are basically rational and that if people have all of the relevant information, they will make a decision that results in the maximum expected utility, where utility refers to outcomes that achieve a person’s goals
Falsification principle
to test a rule, it is necessary to look for situations that would falsify the rule
Framing effect
decisions are influenced by how the choices are stated, or framed
Heuristics
“rules of thumb” that are likely to provide the correct answer but are not foolproof
Illusory correlation
occurs when a relationship between two events appear to exist, but in reality, there is no relationship or the relationship is much weaker than it is assumed to be
- error occurs when there is no correlation, or it is weaker than it appears to be