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MBBCh 1- ELEN1009A > Epidemics > Flashcards

Epidemics Flashcards

1
Q

factors determine severity: (4)

A

no. of infected people
severity of disease
vulnerability of certain groups
ease of which spread can = controlled/prevented

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2
Q

Outbreaks
- ______ occurs in more numbers than usual
- _____ in community/area
- days to years-long

A

disease
contained

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3
Q

What is an epidemic? (2)

A
  • when infectious disease = rapidly spreads to many people
  • affects larger area than outbreak

eg. Ebola + Zika Virus

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4
Q

What is a pandemic? (3)

A
  • geographical/global outbreak
  • affects more people
  • more deaths than epidemics
    eg. Spanish flu/Smallpox/HIV + AIDS/COVID-19
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5
Q

What are the types of epidemic models? (6)

A

basic model - simple contagious epidemics
SIR model
SEIR model
Vital dynamics
SIRD model
SIRS model

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6
Q

What is the SIR model? (4)

A

compartmental model - SIR

total population = N
susceptible people (large) = S
infected people (originally small) = I
recovered people (immune) = R

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7
Q

What are the assumptions about the SIR model? (3)

A
  • no births/deaths
    time = small enough
    fixed population size
  • mild disease
    everyone recovers
    no deaths cause by disease
  • complete immunity
    ≠ reinfection
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8
Q

What is the LRD for the SIR model?

A
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9
Q

N for SIR model =

A
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10
Q

What is the function of the SIR model? (2)

A
  • absolute quantities = ease of understanding
  • normalising = adds abstraction
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11
Q

beta =
gamma =

A

β
γ

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12
Q

S =

A

∫ (- infection rate) dt

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13
Q

I =

A

∫ (infection rate - recovery rate) dt

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14
Q

R =

A

∫ (recovery rate) dt

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15
Q

Infection rate =

A
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16
Q

How does Beta affect the infection rate? (4)

A

= rate @ which S + I = come into contact
= probability of infection transfer - P(S converting to I)
= product of S and I
= depends on disease + population’s characteristics

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17
Q

How does I/N affect the infection rate?

A

= proportion/rate of infected people
percentage of infected

18
Q

How does S affect the infection rate?

A

= no. of susceptible people

19
Q

Recovery rate

A

γ = rate of recovery
I = no. of infected people

20
Q

What are the important parameters of the SIR model? (2)

A

Ro
- basic reproduction number
- no. of infections 1 case generates (an average) over course of epidemic

21
Q

What is the formula for Ro?

A
22
Q

SIR model for I(0) =

A
23
Q

SIR model for
N = 1M
I(0) = 1
β = 0.2
γ = 0.1

A
24
Q

SIR model for
N = 1M
I(0) = 1
β = 0.16
γ = 0.1

A
25
Q

SIR model for
β = 0.4
γ = 0.1

A
26
Q

What is the SEIR model? (5)

A

total population = N
susceptible people (large) = S
exposed people = E
infected people (originally small) = I
recovered people (immune) = R

27
Q

σ =

A

sigma - exposed to infected rate constant

28
Q

What is the LRD for the SEIR?

A
29
Q

SEIR model
β = 0.4
γ = 0.1
σ = 0.2

A
30
Q

What does the model for vital dynamics include?

A

Vital dynamics:
includes births + deaths

31
Q

What is the vital dynamics model?

A

total population = N
susceptible people (large) = S
infected people (originally small) = I
recovered people (immune) = R
β = beta
γ = gamma
μ = birth rate constant
α = natural death rate constant

32
Q

What is the LRD for vital dynamics?

A
33
Q

Vital dynamics
β = 0.4
γ= 0.1
μ= 0.004
α = 0.004

A
34
Q

What is the biggest difference for the SIRD model?

A

Not for mild diseases.

35
Q

What is the SIRD model?

A

total population = N
susceptible people (large) = S
infected people (originally small) = I
recovered people (immune) = R
deaths from disease = D
β = beta
γ = gamma
μ = death rate constant

36
Q

What is the LRD for the SIRD model?

A
37
Q

SIRD model
β = 0.4
γ = 0.1
μ = 0.004

A
38
Q

What is the biggest difference for the SIRS model?

A

NO complete immunity

39
Q

What is the SIRS model?

A

total population = N
susceptible people (large) = S
infected people (originally small) = I
recovered people (immune) = R
β = beta
γ = gamma
ζ = loss of immunity rate constant

40
Q

What is the LRD for the SIRS model?

A
41
Q

SIRS model
β = 0.8
γ = 0.3
ζ = 0.004

A

MBBCh 1- ELEN1009A (18 decks)

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