Elections and Voting Behaviour

Question 1

How has the electoral turn out changed in Ireland?

Answer 1

Marked decrease overall, slight increase during the recession.

Question 2

What makes it a unique party system ?

Answer 2

The long-term dominance of Fianna Fáil - no longer dominant, but neither are other established parties

The weakness of the left

The constrained programmatic differences between the main parties

Question 3

How does the left-right axis influence Irish party alliegeance ?

Answer 3

Not like it does in a traditional sense.

Electorate left - right more an more, so how are they going to have representation ?

• party could move to the axis
• new party supporting these ideals could arise

Question 4

Are we in a Sinn Féin era ?

Answer 4

• A leftward shift among Irish voters (a trend or a blip?)
• Evidence of left vs. right voting, and of class voting, with SF and parties of the left benefiting
• Generational trends: younger voters deserting the established parties
• Conditioned by education: younger less educated voting SF, younger more educated voting for small left parties

Question 5

What is a prominent issue that has emerged in the last year ?

Answer 5

Immigration as an issue. Please see the Desktop photo titled “The Emergence of Immigration as an Issue”

Question 6

What are the conclusions highlighted by the module ?

Answer 6

2020 finally marks the end of an era

More conventional left vs. right politics

Highly unstable voting patterns

Potential for the emergence of the Far-Right

Question 7

What are the most prominent sources of information concerning voting behaviour ?

Answer 7

The text outlines two major sources of evidence for understanding electoral behavior: election results and large-scale surveys.

Election results offer insights into party ratings, candidate success rates, and social demographics of party support within districts.

Meanwhile, large-scale surveys, such as the Irish National Election Study (INES), delve deeper into voter behavior, offering valuable data on party support trends and shifts over time. (Cunningham and Marsh, 2023)

Question 8

How is voting stability in Ireland ?

Answer 8

Despite overall instability, some voters maintain stable party affiliations over time. Analysis of voting behavior from 2007 to 2016 shows that 47% of voters stuck with or returned to the same party they voted for in 2007. However, this stability may be overestimated due to biases in self-reported voting behavior. (Cunningham and Marsh, 2023)

Question 9

What is the social psychological model of voting choice ?

Answer 9

The social psychological model posits that voters maintain enduring party loyalties, often inherited from family, and reinforced through successive generations. This theory suggests that party identification plays a significant role in shaping voting behavior, screening out negative information about one’s preferred party. (Cunningham and Marsh, 2023)

Question 10

What is the sociological model of voting choice ?

Answer 10

In contrast to the social psychological model, the sociological model emphasizes the influence of social groups on voting behavior. Parties are seen as representing different social interests, with voters aligning based on shared interests and social networks. Class, religion, and urban-rural location traditionally guide voting behavior, though Irish politics historically showed less reliance on these factors.

Question 11

What are the impacts of economic factors on party support ?

Answer 11

Economic factors, such as the 2008 financial crisis, have influenced party support dynamics. The crisis led to a hardening of political affiliations among some voters, with some evidence suggesting the creation of new political attachments, notably for Sinn Féin. (Cunningham and Marsh, 2023)

Question 12

What are the impacts of educational attainment on party support ?

Answer 12

Educational attainment serves as another indicator of party support, with notable differences observed among supporters of different parties. Fine Gael and Labour Party supporters tend to have higher levels of university-level education compared to supporters of Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin.

(Cunningham and Marsh, 2023)

Question 13

What are the impacts of religious practice on party support and voting behaviour ?

Answer 13

The religious practices of Catholics in Ireland significantly influence their political affiliations. Among regularly practicing Catholics, Fianna Fáil enjoys substantial support at 34%, whereas Sinn Féin’s support is notably lower at 11%.

Conversely, among non-practicing Catholics or those of other religions, Fianna Fáil’s support drops to 17%, while Sinn Féin’s increases to 18%. This indicates a pronounced difference in party choice based on religious adherence.

With a projected decline in the proportion of practicing Catholics, there’s an expectation of heightened polarization in defining party support along religious lines.

As fewer individuals adhere to regular religious practices, this trend suggests a potential increase in the stark contrast observed in party affiliations between practicing Catholics and others. (Cunningham and Marsh, 2023)

Question 14

What are the impacts of social class on party support and voting behaviour ?

Answer 14

Party support in Ireland varies distinctly across different occupational social classes.

For instance, Fianna Fáil’s support peaks at 35% among retirees living outside Dublin but plummets to 7% among single individuals residing in Dublin.

Similarly, Fine Gael sees a surge in support to 36% among farmers and those in the highest social grade (AB), but it drops to 8% among working-class C2DE individuals, including the unemployed or those working part-time. (Cunningham and Marsh, 2023)

Question 15

What is the impact of candidate appeal on voting behaviour ?

Answer 15

Analysis of voting patterns indicates that candidate appeal significantly influences voter decisions in Irish elections. While party affiliation still plays a role, an increasing number of voters deviate from straight-ticket voting, emphasizing the importance of individual candidates’ qualities, experience, and local reputation. (Cunningham and Marsh, 2023)

Question 16

What are some challenges concerning the analysis and understanding of voter turnout ?

Answer 16

Despite various explanations for voter turnout, including instrumental motivations, mobilization efforts by parties, and individual characteristics, there is no single comprehensive explanation for voter behavior. Turnout patterns in Irish elections, influenced by factors such as age, geography, and electoral context, highlight the complexity of voter participation dynamics in the country. (Cunningham and Marsh, 2023)

Question 17

If observing Irish voters on a traditional left-right scale, what would we find ?

Answer 17

Historically, left voting was stronger among voters without a strong party attachment.

Recent observations suggest a shift in this trend, with left-leaning voters maintaining their strength even among those with party attachments.

This indicates a potential change in the electorate’s perception of left-right politics and may signal a weakening bias against the left.

o A slight leftward shift in ideological self-placement among Irish voters has occurred over the years.

o However, the change has been gradual, with the average voter positioning themselves around the political center. (Marsh., 2023)

Question 18

Discuss the continual influence of ideology on voting behaviour.

Answer 18

10. Continued Influence of Ideology on Voting:

o Ideological self-placement remains a significant factor in shaping voting behavior.

o Although left-wing voters are more likely to support left-wing parties, the consistency of ideological voting remains below 50%, indicating flexibility in voter choices. (Marsh., 2023)

Question 19

Discuss the conservative nature of voting patterns ?

Answer 19

• Despite significant events like the economic crisis and subsequent elections in 2011 and 2016, Irish electoral patterns remain conservative.
• The electoral revolution, if any, is described as “conservative” rather than radical, indicating a continuity in Irish politics despite some changes. (Marsh., 2023)

Question 20

What are some challenges when analyzing voting behaviour ?

Answer 20

1) Concerns about the operationalization of social and ideological variables highlight the challenges in characterizing the Irish party system.

2) While efforts have been made to account for factors like party attachment and social cleavages, the analysis remains complex due to the dynamic nature of Irish politics. (Marsh., 2023)

Question 21

Why was the 2020 election so different from the previous ones ?

Answer 21

• The 2020 election marked a significant departure from past trends in Irish politics.
• Sinn Féin emerged as the largest party in terms of votes, with both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael trailing behind.
• Despite the left’s success in winning votes, they were unable to form a majority government.
• The 2020 election results raise questions about whether there was a significant deviation from established voting patterns.
• Limited data available for analysis, including an exit poll and post-election online poll, suggest some shifts in voter behavior. (Marsh., 2023)

Question 22

What does the 2020 election say about traditional political cleavages ?

Answer 22

• Traditional cleavages centered around Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael appear less significant, with voters moving slightly left and party attachment remaining low.
• The left-right dimension becomes more important, but remains loosely defined, with class differences relatively small.
• Despite changes in party strength and voter behavior in the 2020 election, the analysis suggests that conclusions drawn from past trends would likely remain the same if the 2020 data were included. (Marsh., 2023)