Elections and Voting

Question 1

Invisible Primary

Answer 1

The period of time between the announcement of a candidate’s intention to run for nomination and the first primary, in January of the election year. This time is used by candidates raise funds and public support.

Question 2

Evidence that IP is significant

Answer 2

In 5 of the last 6 competitive GOP primaries, the winner of the IP has gone on to secure the nomination. With regards to the 2016 race, Jeb Bush, the most likely GOP nominee, has announced his intention to raise $100m prior to the first primary, employing tactics such as fundraising dinners with tickets priced at $100k per head. Early scrutiny of candidates can expose flaws, leading to them dropping out, e.g. Herman Cain (GOP) in 2011 over sexual harassment allegations.

Question 3

Evidence that IP is not significant

Answer 3

The link is weaker for the Dems - only 3 of the last 6 IP winners secured the nomination - neither of the last two.

Question 4

Primary

Answer 4

A state-wide election held to select a preferred candidate as the party’s Presidential candidate. The vote is used to allocate delegates at the National Party Convention.

Question 5

Caucus

Answer 5

A state-wide series of meetings where party supporters discuss potential candidates, followed by a vote. This is used to allocate delegates as the National Party Convention.

Question 6

Closed Primary

Answer 6

A primary in which only registered supporters of the relevant party may participate - registered independents are not permitted to vote. Used in 13 states, e.g. New Jersey, where roughly 50% of registered voters are independents.

Question 7

Semi-Closed Primary

Answer 7

A primary in which registered supporters are allowed to vote for their own party’s nominee, and independents are allowed to choose which party’s primary they vote in. Used in 15 states.

Question 8

Open Primary

Answer 8

A primary in which voters are allowed to vote for either party’s nominee (but not both) regardless of their registered affiliation - criticised due to the potential for supporters of one party to vote tactically in the opposition’s primary (“party crashing”), especially when their own party’s nomination is a foregone conclusion, e.g. Operation Chaos (2008) - GOP voters attempted to get Hillary Clinton nominated, who they believed would be easier to defeat, and Operation Hilarity (2012) - Dems voted for Rick Santorum in GOP open primaries.

Question 9

Presumptive Nominee

Answer 9

A primary candidate is declared to be a party’s presumptive nominee if they have amassed more than half of the available delegates - this often occurs prior to the end of the primary process, e.g. Mitt Romney (2012) declared winner in April, before the CA and TX primaries (process extended until June).

Question 10

Iowa Caucus/New Hampshire Primary

Answer 10

The first caucus and primary respectively - said to give a winning candidate momentum to go on to secure the nomination. Some argue that these two small states receive a disproportionate amount of influence and media attention.

Question 11

Front-Loading

Answer 11

The practice of state parties attempting to move their primaries further back in the primary process in order to make their own primary more influential. National parties generally oppose this, as a more even spread provides a better test of candidates, and brings more opportunity for fund-raising - in order to prevent this, nat’l parties may punish it, e.g. Florida was punished by the Dems in 2008 through halving the value of its delegates’ votes.

Question 12

Super Tuesday

Answer 12

A Tuesday in February or March (6th of March in 2012) when a large number of states hold their primaries - the overall result of Super Tuesday often establishes a clear front-runner. E.g. in 2012, Romney won 225 of 415 available delegates on ST, next highest was 89 for Rick Santorum - paved the way for him to become presumptive nominee.

Question 13

Strengths of the Primary Process

Answer 13

Protects principles of democracy and participation. Allows initially weak candidates time and media attention to build momentum, rather than being based entirely on success in the invisible primary. Tests candidates rigorously. Protects the voice of smaller states, as larger ones, who would otherwise dominate, tend to be late in the process.

Question 14

Weaknesses of the Primary Process - Democracy/Representation

Answer 14

Staggered system gives rise to political inequality, as the value of your vote depends on its timing. Different types of primaries/caucuses make the process unequal. States with two closed primaries (e.g. NJ) disenfranchise registered independents. The two earliest states are very unrepresentative of the US - much older and whiter - combined, amount to 2% of the US population but have a huge influence on the outcome, e.g. Obama’s win in Iowa hugely boosted his polling numbers. Party crashing.

Question 15

Formal Functions of the Party Conventions

Answer 15

Select the party’s nomination for President - the presumptive nominee will already be known. Selecting the VP candidate - the presumptive nominee will already have selected a running mate. Endorsement of the party platform - drafted and subject to scrutiny months before the convention and thus a formality - exception to this was the Democratic convention in Charlotte (2012) - v. contentious vote on inserting references to God and Israel into the platform.

Question 16

Informal Functions of the Party Conventions

Answer 16

Demonstration of party unity - chance for primary rivals to publicly reconcile, e.g. Clinton (2008) proposed a motion to have Obama declared the unanimous winner (which was passed), thus rendering the entire primary process superfluous. Communication with voters - major media events (2012 Dem convention drew 35m viewers on its final day). Both parties held theirs in swing states in 2012 - Dems in North Carolina, GOP in Florida. Fundraising - national spotlight brings a significant opportunity for fundraising in preparation for the election proper - in 1996, journalist Ted Koppel described the GOP convention as “more of an infomercial than a news event.”

Question 17

ECVs

Answer 17

Electoral College Voters - each state gets the same number of ECVs as its Congressional representation - all states with one Congressman (plus D.C.) get 3; CA, the largest state, gets 55. There are 538 ECVs in total.

Question 18

Allocation of ECVs

Answer 18

48 states + D.C. allocate on a winner-takes-all basis, which is often criticised for its lack of representation, e.g. Obama won all 29 of FL’s votes in 2012 on 50.01% of the vote. Maine and Nebraska use their own system, whereby the winner in each district gets an ECV, with the state-wide winner getting the remaining 2.

Question 19

Criticism of the Electoral College - Popular Vote

Answer 19

A candidate can win the election without winning the popular vote - this has happened 3 times, most recently in 2000, when George Bush, Jr. beat Al Gore in acrimonious circumstances. Theoretically, a candidate could win the election (even with equal voter turnout in every district and without faithless electors) with as little as 22% of the popular vote. Partially arises from the fact that small states are over-represented (favours GOP) and the winner-takes all system.

Question 20

Criticism of the Electoral College - Influence of Swing States

Answer 20

In 2012, it was estimated that the election was a foregone conclusion in all but 10 states. This gives rise to a disproportionate focus on these 10 states - in 2004, 1/4 of all TV advertising money was spent in Florida, the largest swing states. In 2012, the Obama campaign had 790 field offices, but only 1 across 25 safe states.

Question 21

Criticism of the Electoral College - Over-representation of Smaller States

Answer 21

As each state receives 2 ECVs for its senators, regardless of population, smaller states are heavily over-represented in the electoral college. E.g. if California had the same population-ECV ratio as Wyoming (the smallest state), it would have 180 ECVs, compared to its actual 55.

Question 22

Criticism of the Electoral College - Discourages Participation

Answer 22

The winner-takes-all system means that voters for the minority party in a safe state may be led to feel that there is no point voting - e.g. Texas and California both ranked in the bottom 10 states for turnout (50.1% and 55.9% respectively). However, the link is arguably tenuous - the states with the highest and lowest turnouts (Minnesota, 76.1% and Hawaii, 44.5%) are both safe Democratic states - perhaps turnout depends more on other factors.

Question 23

Criticism of the Electoral College - Unfair on Third Parties

Answer 23

Winner-takes-all means that minor parties can amass significant support without success in the electoral college, e.g. Ross Perot won 19% of the vote in 1992, but no ECVs.

Question 24

Advocacy of the Electoral College - Urban-Centric Victory

Answer 24

Without the electoral college, a candidate would be able to claim victory by campaigning solely in large cities - they are forced to have a wider geographic appeal, which especially important given that 25 states have a population density of fewer than 100 people per square mile.

Question 25

Advocacy of the Electoral College - Federal Character

Answer 25

The Constitution clearly directs that the US ought to maintain the balance between the nation and its states - the electoral college maintains the influence of smaller states. Moreover, the electoral college is clearly set out in the Constitution - altering it would be to deviate from the vision of the founding fathers.

Question 26

Advocacy of the Electoral College - Two-Party System

Answer 26

Many argue that a 2-party system promotes political stability and allows for greater legislative progress - the Electoral College ensures that the Dems and the GOP continue to dominate in presidential elections.

Question 27

2012 Election Results

Answer 27

Popular vote: 51% - 47%

Electoral College: 62% - 38% (332-206)

Question 28

The Power of Incumbency

Answer 28

Since 1900, 14 of 19 presidents running for a second term have been successful (74%). However, this effect is most significant when the incumbent has achieved an economic recovery (Reagan) or strong growth generally (Clinton), or the country is in a time of war (Bush Jr.) - Obama did not have any of these in his favour, indicating that the quality of his campaign was decisive in his re-election. However, prominent statistician Nate Silver pointed out that in every election since 1940, an incumbent with an approval rating of 49% or above has one, whilst one with 48% or below has lost.

Question 29

Types of Congressional Election

Answer 29

Congressmen are up for election every 2 years - very short term. Elections alternate between presidential election years and midterms. At each of these elections, 33 or 34 Senators are elected - Senators have 6-year terms, and are split into 3 classes, one of which is up for re-election every two years.

Question 30

Safe Districts

Answer 30

The vast majority of Congressional districts are considered safe - in elections to the House, incumbents have a 94% re-election rate - the most notable recent exception to this trend is 2010, when the GOP made emphatic gains in the House - 53 incumbents lost in 2010, which was the only election since 1974 with an incumbent re-election rate below 90%. Reasons for the general safety of districts include the fact that corporations and PACs will tend to donate to incumbents due to their high likelihood of winning (self-fulfilling prophecy) - incumbent spending has outstripped challenger spending (on average) in 16 of 20 elections since 1974 - and incumbents’ ability to engage in pork barrel politics.

Question 31

Nationalisation of House Elections

Answer 31

Although some districts’ elections remain firmly candidate-based (e.g. John Barrow), there has been an increasing focus on party affiliations. Trend originated with first party platform (GOP’s Contract with America) in 1994 - all GOP nominees expected to largely adhere to its provisions. Repeated in 2006 with the Dems’ “6 for ‘06.” In 2010, many in to GOP fought more on an anti-Obama (esp. Obamacare) platform than an individual one.

Question 32

Impact of Midterms

Answer 32

Can heavily impact on a President’s legislative agenda, e.g. Clinton sustained heavy losses in 1994, forced to shift to the right with tax cuts and Workfare.

Question 33

Midterms as a referendum on the Presidency

Answer 33

In the last 6 midterm elections, a presidential approval rating better than 50% has resulted in gains for his party, whilst one worse has resulted in losses - over 80% of voters who disapprove of the President vote for the opposing part’s candidate. In 2010, 60% of voters said that their congressional vote was intended, at least in part, to express support or opposition to Obama. In 2006, House leader of the Democrats Nancy Pelosi called the midterms “a referendum on the failed economic policies of President Bush and the Republicans.”

Question 34

Initiative

Answer 34

A proposal of a new law or constitutional amendment that is placed on the ballot by petition. 24 states allow some form of initiative (19 allow constitutional amendments, 21 allow new laws)

Question 35

Referendum

Answer 35

A proposal to repeal a law that was previously enacted by the state legislature, placed on the ballot by petition. 24 states allow referendums, most of which also allow initiatives. They are quite rare in comparison with Initiatives.

Question 36

Proposition

Answer 36

A proposal placed on the ballot by the state legislature - all states allow these, with all but Delaware requiring amendments to the state constitution to be voted on by the population at large. E.g. California Prop 8 (duh).

Question 37

Pressure Group Influence over Initiatives/Refs/Props

Answer 37

Pressure groups are often instrumental in bringing about initiatives, e.g. Personhood Colorado turned in 140k signatures (far more than the threshold of 86k) in order to trigger a vote on Colorado Amendment 67, which would have extended the definition of personhood to unborn fetuses. Meanwhile, Planned Parenthood campaigned successfully against the initiative. In the case of Prop 8, significant groups included the Mormon Church ($20m to the successful yes campaign) and Equality for All.

Question 38

Protection of States’ Rights

Answer 38

Initiatives and referendums can provide avenues for the states to protect their rights and challenge the federal gov’t, e.g. legalisation of marijuana in Colorado and Washington, which clearly contradicted federal law - the fed has the right to enforce its law over state law (Gonzales v. Raich, 2005), but Obama declared in 2014 that the DEA would not enforce the law in states which had voted to legalise it - major victory for states’ rights.

Question 39

1968 Democratic National Convention

Answer 39

Senators Eugene McCarthy and Bobby Kennedy ran for the nomination on an anti-war platform against former VP Hubert Humphrey, who adopted a stance similar to Johnson’s. 2/3 of primary votes went to Kennedy and McCarthy. Kennedy was assassinated during the process, leaving his delegates uncommitted. Humphrey eventually won the nomination, despite not having competed in a single primary, having amassed his delegates from non-binding caucus states - added to tensions created by anti-war protests.

Question 40

McGovern-Fraser Commission

Answer 40

Created in the aftermath of the 1968 Democratic National Convention, recommended greater transparency in the awarding of delegates - enacted in the form of making primary results binding on delegates.

Question 41

Hunt Commission

Answer 41

1980 - set up in response to recent poor nominations by the Democrats - George McGovern (thumped by Nixon) and Jimmy Carter (elected but struggled to work with Congress) - party leadership argued that they would have selected a more moderate candidate. Recommended that some influence for the national party should be restored in the form of superdelegates (Congressmen, Senators, Governors, members of the National Committee and “distinguished party members”). Can be significant, e.g. the closeness of the primary race between Obama and Clinton in 2008 (51% - 49% of delegates) meant that superdelegates could have decided the outcome. However, the majority of superdelegates had already announced their voting intentions, and such close primary races are rare.

Question 42

VP Ticket Balancing

Answer 42

A Presidential Candidate will often choose a VP candidate who balances and flaws he might have, e.g. Obama was relatively young (47), inexperienced (4 years as a Senator) and unfamiliar with foreign policy - nominated Joe Biden, who was 65, had been a Senator for 35 years, and who was at that point chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Question 43

Non-binding Primaries

Answer 43

Oregon was the first state to use a primary in 1910, but the votes were non-binding - e.g. in 1912, Theodore Roosevelt won 9 of 14 primaries, but his delegates were largely allies of incumbent President Howard Taft, and were not faithful in their votes.

Question 44

Proportional vs. Winner-Takes-All Primaries

Answer 44

New Hampshire (GOP, 2012) - 12 delegates were split between 3 candidates with more than 15% of the vote (Romney, Paul and Jon Huntsman)

Florida (GOP, 2012) - all 50 delegates awarded to Romney on 46% of the vote

Question 45

Iowa Caucus Process

Answer 45

Split into several distinct stages, with delegates sent from each one to the next: Precinct Caucuses (over 1700) - County Conventions - District Conventions - State Convention - National Convention. Votes in the first stage are non-binding, and any impact the popular vote does have tends to be distorted over the multiple stages of delegate allocation, e.g. in 2012, Rick Santorum received the most votes but no delegates, Mitt Romney came second and received 6, and Ron Paul, in 3rd, received the most delegates, with 22.

Question 46

Turnout in Primaries

Answer 46

Tends to fall in later contests, as they are less influential - however, is low even in early contests - New Hampshire Primary turnout was 51.9% in 2008, compared to 70.5% in the election proper. Higher in primaries than caucuses as they are less time-consuming, more private, and do not occur at a set time of day - Iowa Caucus turnout in 2008 was 16.3% - this was an all-time record and was 8x the national Caucus average.

Question 47

Ideological Pressure of Primaries

Answer 47

The fact that primary voters tend to have stronger ideological convictions than the electorate at large means that candidates are put under pressure to appeal to the extreme fringes of their party, e.g. Mitt Romney (2012) - described himself as “severely conservative” and emphasised the conservatism of his policies as governor of Massachusetts, despite having previously described himself as “someone who is moderate.” Furthermore, one of his strategists revealed that they were planning to “scrap and restart” their campaign for the election proper.

Question 48

Problems with the Maine-Nebraska System

Answer 48

May actually serve to reduce voter equality - even more stringent criteria for an important vote - must live in a competitive district rather than a competitive state - in 2012, 10 Congressmen ran unopposed in their district. Creates opportunity for gerrymandering. Some statisticians actually claim that the system produces less proportional results, essentially rendering it useless - e.g. in 2012, Romney would have won, despite getting 3 percentage points less of the popular vote. However, some argue that this claim is overly deterministic, as people would have voted differently under the system.

Question 49

Recall Election

Answer 49

An election, triggered by petition, called in order to determine if an incumbent politician ought to be removed from office - if successful, this will be followed by another election to determine their successor. E.g. Gray Davis, governor of California, was recalled by 55% to 45% in 2003, after he became unpopular due to problems with the budget, and disputes with energy companies. He was succeeded by GOP candidate Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Question 50

Why Obama Won (2012)

Answer 50

Ohio Auto Bailout - 1 in 8 jobs in Ohio depend on the auto industry in the key swing state. Hurricane Sandy gave Obama a chance to demonstrate his leadership skills and took media attention away from the Romney campaign. Speaking about the mess he inherited from GWB managed to put voters off the GOP. “Osama Bin Laden is dead, and General Motors is alive” was used to great effect - showed he was tough on terrorism and economically savvy. African Americans and Hispanics made up record shares of the electorate (13% and 10% respectively - both groups overwhelmingly voted Democrat). Won in 9 of 10 swing states (all but North Carolina).

Question 51

Why Romney Lost

Answer 51

Unemployment fell below 8% for the first time in 4 years in September 2012, stealing a key line from Romney’s final speeches. Lost by large margins amongst women (55-44) and Hispanics (71-27 - self-deportation). Cast himself as a moderate, then a severe conservative, then shifted back again - voters were concerned about his true ideology. Had remarks at a fundraising dinner secretly filmed, in which he said that 47 percent of Americans were guaranteed to vote for Obama because they felt entitled to housing, healthcare, etc, and could not take responsibility for themselves, and that his job was “not to worry about those people” - these derogatory remarks painted him as a typical rich, out-of-touch Republican who did not care about poor people.

Question 52

Weaknesses of the Primary Process - Turnout

Answer 52

Lower turnout than in the general election, e.g. Iowa 2008 turnout was 16.3%, an all-time record - tend to be more affluent, better educated and more ideological - most electable candidate not always chosen, e.g. polling in Feb ‘15 by Fox News suggested that Rand Paul would be the most successful GOP challenger to Clinton, but polling did not have him winning any of the GOP primaries of 4 swing states polled (split between Bush and Walker) - Paul is more liberal on drugs policy and has made more efforts to reach out to minority voters than Bush.