Election statistics Flashcards
What were the techniques used in the Conservative 1979 manifesto?
- Included ‘broad strokes’ which focused generally on the economy and reducing the power of trade unions.
- Many points linked to ideas of a meritocracy and family life.
What were techniques used by Thatcher’s campaign in 1979?
- Saw a turn towards populism/ the appeal of the working class.
- Thatcher’s campaign revolved around cultivating a pristine image and highlighting the failures of Labour under Callaghan.
- The campaign was managed by her publicity director who employed the advertising agency Saatchi & Saatchi. They polished Thatcher’s public image by employing a voice coach to soften her speech. She was to appear friendly, the image of ‘the housewife’s friend’ which increased her chances with the electoral demographic of working and middle-class housewives.
- ‘Photo ops’ for the media were arranged, and Thatcher was seen tea-tasting and holding a calf.
- Saatchi & Saatchi’s ‘Labour isn’t working’ advertising campaign launched in 1978 to highlight the weaknesses of the Labour gov and its negative impact on the economy.
What was the media’s influence in 1979?
- The media made much of Callaghan’s apparent obliviousness to the Winter of Discontent, with The Sun newspaper publishing the famous headline ‘Crisis? What crisis?’.
- The campaign was managed by her publicity director and former TV producer Reece, who employed the advertising agency Saatchi & Saatchi.
- ‘Photo ops’ for the media were arranged, and Thatcher was seen tea-tasting and holding a calf.
- Saatchi & Saatchi’s ‘Labour isn’t working’ advertising campaign launched in 1978 to highlight the weaknesses of the Labour gov and its negative impact on the economy.
What was the wider political context of the 1979 general election?
- Labour won the 2nd election of 1974 with a majority of 3 seats.
- They formed a pact with the Liberal Party in 1977, known as the Lib-Lab pact. When this fell through in 1978, Labour turned to the support of the SNP.
- In March 1979, a ref was held on the 1978 Scotland Act to gauge whether there was sufficient public support for devolution. The results were inconclusive, leading the gov to repeal the Act.
- This fared badly with SNP, leading to a Vote of No Confidence.
- Both the Liberal Party and the SNP voted against him, and Callaghan lost the motion by one vote.
- He was forced to call an election, setting the date in May 1979. According to a Gallup poll, the Cons reached a 20% lead over Labour by the end of the Winter of Discontent in Feb 1979.
What was the Winter of Discontent?
In the winter of 1978–79, a wave of strikes erupted across Britain as workers rejected the Labour government’s attempt to impose wage limits in the face of rising inflation.
What was the turnout of the 1979 election?
76%
What was the % swing from Labour to Conservatives in 1979?
5%
What % of the vote did the liberal democrats get in 1979?
14%
What seat majority did Labour gain in 1997?
179, gained 145
What % of men and women voted Labour in 1997?
Women- 44%
Men- 45%
What points relate to age from the 1997 election?
- Labour gained more votes than the Conservatives in every age group.
- Those aged 55+ were most likely to vote Conservative.
Where did Labour gain the highest proportion of votes regionally in 1997?
The North (62%)
Where did the Conservatives gain the highest proportion of votes regionally in 1997?
Southeast (41%)
What % of non-white voters voted Labour in 1997?
70%
What was the wider political context of the 1997 election?
- The Conservatives had been in power for 18 years. People had become increasingly disillusioned with the party & began to distrust them, whilst Lab’s modernisation & reforms gained popularity.
- During 80s, the policies of Thatcher had divided the party.
- Also increasingly split into pro-Europeans & eurosceptics severely weakening the party.
- Britain experienced a recession at the beginning of both the 80s & 90s.
- Thatcher’s policies increased unemployment whilst tackling inflation.
- Economic hardship made the Cons unpopular.
What points were made on the 1997 Conservative manifesto, and why were they ineffective?
- Con campaign: ‘You can only be sure with the Conservatives.’ This was ineffectual against a background of Thatcherism, economic decline & scandals.
- Major promised a return to traditional values such as a tax break for married couples when one partner stayed at home. By 1997 these ideas were outdated.
- Promised to keep Europe at arm’s length but did not have much credibility due to division over Europe.
- Attacked Labour’s plans for devolution, warning that it would break up the union. This alienated potential voters in Scotland & Wales who supported devolution.
What were the elements of the 1997 labour campaign?
- ‘New Labour, New Life for Britain’ which promoted Labour’s new centrist approach.
- The campaign focused on middle & lower-middle classes, which had become a large majority, as well as maintaining traditional working-class support. Was very effective as the party gained more votes than the Cons in every age, gender, and ethnic group and most regions of the UK.
- Spin doctors which judged the public mood & present gov policies in a favourable light.
- Blair promised that there would be no income tax rises & VAT would be cut and explained how this would be achieved.
- Labour vowed to reduce the size of infant school classes & cut waiting times for the NHS.
- Labour promised to tackle crime rates, especially among young people. This helped to entice middle-class voters.
What was the impact of leaders in 1997?
- Major was a likeable, but bland & uninspiring.
- Blair had a great impression on the British public. He was younger, and captured the public’s attention.
What was the turnout in 2015 and 2019?
- 2015- 66%
- 2019- 67%
What % of the vote did UKIP get in 2015?
13%
What % of the vote did the Conservatives get in 2015?
37%
What were the techniques used by the Conservative party in 2015?
- Cons distributed detailed surveys to voters in marginal seats, and merged this data with info from electoral rolls and commercial market research to produce a comprehensive picture of who might be persuaded to vote Conservative.
- The party’s campaign director laid out a plan known as the 40/40 strategy. The party would focus single-mindedly on holding 40 marginal seats and winning another 40.
How much did SNP and the Liberal democrats spend in 2015?
- SNP: £1.5million
- Lib Dems: £3million
What was the impact of Opinion polls in 2015?
- Opinion polls predicted a close result but still underestimated cons.
- In con campaigns it promoted fear in the public of another coalition.
What was the wider political context of the 2015 election?
- The 2007–2008 financial crisis/Global Financial Crisis, was a severe worldwide economic crisis.
- Was the most serious financial crisis since the Great Depression.
- Many of the public distrusted the Labour party.
What was the impact of leaders in 2015?
- Miliband was perceived as a weak leader.
- In his speech at the Labour party conference in 2014, he forgotten to discuss the proposal Cameron had made that morning to join the US bombing of Isis in Iraq.
- He also fell off the stage at the final televised debate in 2015.
- His polling was poor compared to Cameron, who came across as stronger.
What were features of the Conservative manifesto 2015?
- Con manifesto: ‘Party of working people’.
- Extension of the right-to-buy scheme to housing association tenants in England.
- Doubling free childcare allowance for 3 & 4 -year-olds to 30 hrs.
- Increasing the inheritance tax threshold on family homes to £1m by 2017.
- An extra £8bn a year for the NHS by 2020.
- An EU referendum by 2017.
What were features of the Labour manifesto in 2015?
- Freeze energy bills & reducing tuition fees to £6,000.
- Raising the minimum wage.
- Introducing a new National Primary Childcare Service, guaranteeing childcare from 08:00 to 18:00.
- No increase to the basic or higher rates of income tax, National Insurance or VAT.
What groups did Labour have a clear lead among in 2015?
- 18-34s
- DE voters
- Private and social renters
- BME voters
What age group were the conservatives most successful in 2015?
Those aged 65+
What social group did the Conservatives gain a 3 point swing from Labour in 2015?
ABs
What was the political context of 2019?
- In Jan 2019, May’s gov was defeated in the HofC by a margin of 230 votes in the first ‘meaningful vote’ on her deal to leave the EU.
- It was the largest majority against a UK gov in history.
- May resigned and an election was called.
- The general election was heavily emphasised as a way to ‘get Brexit done’, encouraging a large con majority to quicken the process.
What did YouGov say about the relationship between aging and voting Conservative in 2019?
Estimated that the chances of someone voting Conservative increased by around 9 points with every 10 years of age.
What was the point lead among 18-24 year olds for Labour in 2019?
43 points
What % of seats in the UK’s core cities were won by Labour in 2019?
71%
What do the UK’s ‘core cities’ tend to have?
- Lower home ownership.
- Larger young and BME populations.
What % of BME voters voted Labour in 2019?
64%
What % of voter share did Labour gain among all social grades in 2019?
33%
What % of men and women voted Conservative in 2019?
- men: 46%
- women: 44%
What statistics demonstrate that class was not significant in 2019?
- Conservatives comfortably outperformed Labour across all social grades.
- Conservatives did better amongst C2DE voters (48%) than ABC1 voters (43%)
What % of those who did not hold a degree vote conservative in 2019?
58%
What were points made on the 2019 Conservative manifesto?
- Extra funding for NHS, with 50,000 more nurses & 50mil more GP surgery appointments a year.
- 20,000 more police and tougher sentencing for criminals.
- Reaching Net Zero by 2050 with investment in clean energy solutions & green infrastructure to reduce carbon emissions/ pollution.
- “Getting Brexit done. Investing in our public services and infrastructure. Supporting workers and families. Strengthening the Union. Unleashing Britain’s potential.”
What were some points made on the Labour manifesto 2019?
- Increase health budget by 4.3% (at the top end of what health think tanks and analysts have been calling for. )
- Hold a second ref on Brexit.
- Raise minimum wage to £10.
- Stop pension age rises.
- Introduce a National Care Service (devolved, only applies to England),
- Bring forward net-zero targets to within 2030s.
- Nationalise key industries.
- Abolish private schools’ charitable status and tuition fees (education devolved, only apply to England).
- Free bus travel for under 25s. (Transport partly devolved, apply to England only.)
Where was the Conservative voter share at its highest in 2019?
East of England (57%)
Where was the Labour voter share at its highest in 2019?
London (48%)
